Early Look

Friday, May 13, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	235.00	0.74%	31,887
S&P 500	42.25	1.08%	3,969
Nasdaq	200.50	1.68%	12,147

 

 

U.S. futures looking at a strong bounce early, paring its weekly losses following strength in Asian markets overnight after Shanghai authorities said they are aiming for Zero-Covid at community level by “mid-May” as they aim to open, ease traffic restrictions and open shops in an orderly manner, considers resuming production on a larger scale. China officials said they want to see three days of no community spread before loosening restrictions. The China possible reopening of its economy is certainly helping give U.S. futures a good bump early and lifter their markets. The Nikkei Index surges 2.64% or 678 points to 26,427, the Shanghai Index gains nearly 1% to 3,084, and the Hang Seng Index rises 2.68% or 518 points to 19,898. In Europe, the German DAX is up 1.2% to 13,900, while the FTSE 100 gains 1.5% to 7340. Also note, Fed Chairman Powell late yesterday saying half-point hikes are likely in June and July. In stock news overnight, twitter (TWTR) shares slide around 20% after Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the deal to acquire the social media company is currently on hold.

 

It was another wild day on Wall Street Thursday that saw big spikes, deep declines and a strong late day rally after the S&P 500 index briefly neared its -20% down off All-Time Highs, the formal definition of a bear market. The question is, was that the bottom after several weeks of selling pressure, or just another trap for major averages before another sell-off? U.S. stocks are on track to extend weekly declines, with the S&P and Nasdaq on track for a 6^th straight week of losses, and the Dow on pace for a 7^th straight week of declines. Stocks fell on Thursday as the market sell-off continued after another failed rebound attempt, as investors remains concerned about rising rates which have dented the outlook for corporate profits. The Federal Reserve is aggressively hiking rates as it tackles the highest inflation in four decades, while data yesterday showed that producer prices eased in April, but remained extremely elevated, with an annual increase of 11.0%, compared to 11.5% in March.

 

Bitcoin and other crypto assets are rebounding, with its price rising 6% back above $30K after a wild day on Thursday. Prices ended Thursday around $28K, down nearly 60% from the all-time high of $68,990.90 it hit in November. The selloff has wiped some $200 billion in value from the cryptocurrency market, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The entire cryptocurrency market now has a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion — less than half of the $2.9 trillion it was worth in November, according to CoinMarketCap data.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index slipped -5.10 points, or 0.13%, to 3,930.08

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -103.81 points, or 0.33%, to 31,730.30

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 6.73 points, or 0.06%, to 11,370.96

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 21.24 points, or 1.24% to 1,739.38

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET          Import Prices M/M for April…est. +0.6%

·     8:30 AM ET          Export Prices M/M for April…est. +0.7%

·     10:00 AM ET        University of Michigan Confidence, May-P…est. 64.0

·     11:00 AM ET       Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Energy and Inflation

·     12:00 PM ET       Fed’s Mester Discusses Monetary Policy

·     1:00 PM ET         Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AIRS, KLXE, LFMD, NYC, PLXP, SDPI, ZEV

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	1.87	108.00
Brent	1.59	109.04
Gold	-8.10	1,816.50
EUR/USD	0.0006	1.0387
JPY/USD	0.50	128.82
10-Year Note	+0.076	2.893%

 

 

World News

·     In China, Shanghai is doing its best to open the economy, but officials want to see three days of no community spread before loosening restrictions. Officials in Shanghai said today they aim to ease rules by May 20

·     Fed Chairman Powell late yesterday reiterates half-point hikes are likely in June and July; “If the economy performs about as expected,” Powell said, “it would be appropriate for there to be additional 50-basis point increases at the next two meetings.”, not actively considering a larger 75 bps increase, soft landing a challenge and will include some pain.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI) 1Q adj EPS ($0.02) vs est. ($0.14) on revs $95.6Mm vs est. $94.6Mm, comps +8% (+11.1% in markets with more available labor); says April comps +7.1%

·     Figs Inc. (FIGS) Q1 EPS $0.05 vs. est. $0.06; Q1 revs $110.1M vs. est. $117M; 2022 net revenues are expected to be in range of $510M-$530M, representing year over year growth of approximately 22% to 26% vs. est. $556.5M

·     Mister Car Wash (MCW) Q1 EPS $0.11, in-line with ests on revs $219.4M vs. est. $215.1M; reaffirms year EPS and rev outlook

·     Poshmark (POSH) 1Q EPS ($0.18) vs est. ($0.22) on revs $90.9Mm vs es.t $87.6Mm, qtrly GMV $493.4Mm +12%; sees 2Q revs $86-88Mm vs est. $89.8Mm

·     Xponential Fitness (XPOF) 1Q adj EPS ($0.19) vs est. $0.12 on revs $50.4Mm vs est. $45.3Mm; guides FY revs $201-211Mm vs est. $209.9Mm, +500-520 new studios, N. American system-wide sales $995Mm-1.005B, adj EBITDA $67-71Mm vs est. $70.4Mm

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     United Parcel Services Inc (UPS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan on expectations of headwinds from lower e-commerce demand and inflationary pressures, cutting its tgt from $229 to $202. Also expects UPS to face headwinds from Amazon Inc (AMZN) commentary on capacity, Teamsters negotiation next year

 

Financials

·     Affirm Holdings (AFRM) rises 27%; extends multi-year exclusive partnership with Shopify (SHOP) in the U.S.; Q3 revs $354.8M vs. est. $343.64M; active merchants on platform grew from 12,000 to 207,000 Y/Y, and active consumers increased 137% to 12.7 million people; GMV was $3.9 billion, an increase of 73%; Total transactions grew to 10.5 million, an increase of 162%; guides Q4 revs $345M-$355M vs. est. $353.1M and year $1.33B-$1.34B above prior $1.31B

·     Robinhood (HOOD) rises as Emergent Fidelity Technologies and Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of FTX Trading, report 7.6% stake in HOOD, saying the shares represent attractive investment; said they intend to hold the shares as an investment, according to the filing

·     Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Q4 adj EPS $1.30 vs. est. $1.20; Q4 revs $471M vs. est. $461.42M

·     LegalZoom (LZ) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.05) vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q1 revs $154.2M vs. est. $150.76M; sees Q2 revs $162M-$164M vs. est. $165M and adj Ebitda $10M-$12M

·     Payoneer Global (PAYO) Q1 EPS $0.06 vs. est. loss (-$0.05); Q1 revs $136.95M vs. est. $121.19M; sees FY22 revenue $550M-$560M vs. est. $535.48M; sees FY22 adj EBITDA ($20M)-($10M)

·     Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Q1 adj EPS $0.24 vs. est. $0.22; Q1 revs $386.9M vs. est. $370.54M; raises FY22 revenue growth view to 13.5%-15.5% from 13%-15%; adjusted Ebitda margin guidance range for full year 2022 now 28.5% – 30.0%

 

Healthcare

·     Editas (EDIT) said the FDA granted EDIT-301 orphan drug designation. EDIT-301 is an investigational gene editing medicine for the treatment of beta thalassemia, a blood disorder.

·     Spectrum Pharma (SPPI) 1Q adj EPS ($0.06) vs est. ($0.19); ended qtr with $89.2Mm cash, equivalent and marketable securities

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Twitter (TWTR) shares slip -25%; Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter (TWTR) is temporarily on hold pending details, the Tesla (TSLA) founder tweeted Friday. “Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users,” Musk said.

·     Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q1 EPS $1.70 vs. est. $1.61; Q1 revs $1.89B vs. est. $1.83B; sees Q2 EPS $1.83-$1.88 vs. est. $2.09 and sees Q2 revenue growth of 4%-5% (est. $2.06B); said future impacts to co’s operations from Russia Ukraine conflict are difficult to estimate

·     New Relic (NEWR) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.24) vs. est. loss (-$0.21); Q4 revs $205.8M vs. est. $204.5M; sees FY23 adjusted EPS (37c)-(31c) vs. est. loss (10c); sees FY23 revenue $920M-$930M vs. est. $913.87M

·     Blend Labs (BLND) 1Q EPS ($0.32) vs est. ($0.19) on revs $71.5Mm vs est. $64.7Mm; maintains FY revs guide

·     Digimarc Corp. (DMRC) 1Q adj EPS ($0.69) vs est. ($0.66) on revs $7.4Mm vs est. $8.0Mm

·     Duolingo (DUOL) 1Q EPS ($0.31) vs est. ($0.57) on revs $81.2Mm vs est. $77.4Mm, bookings $102.1Mm +55%; sees 2Q revs $84-87Mm vs est. $81.4Mm and FY revs $349-358Mm vs est. $338.9Mm

·     Enfusion (ENFN) 1Q ($0.10) vs est. $0.03 on revs $34.1Mm vs est. $33Mm; sees 2Q revs $35-36Mm vs est. $35.5Mm and adj EBITDA $4-4.5Mm vs est. $7.8Mm; guides FY revs $148.1-151.1Mm vs est. $148.5Mm and adj EBITDA $17.2-19.2Mm vs est. $33.2Mm

·     Expensify (EXFY) 1Q EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.01) on revs $40.4Mm vs est. 39.3Mm; reaffirms long-term guidance of +25-35% revs growth over multi-year period; authorizes up to $50Mm Class A share repurchase

·     PDF Solutions (PDFS) 1Q adj EPS ($0.09) vs est. $0.06 on revs $33.5Mm vs est. $31.6Mm, backlog $196.8Mm +10% sequentially; guides FY revs +20-25% vs est. +21.7%

·     Toast Inc. (TOST) 1Q EPS ($0.20) vs est. ($0.13) on revs $535Mm vs est. $490.9Mm; guides 2Q revs $635-665Mm vs est. $570.7Mm and FY revs $2.5-2.55B vs est. $2.38B

·     Vizio Holding (VZIO) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. est. loss (-$0.05); Q1 revs $485.5M vs. est. $53.6M; SmartCast Active Accounts of 15.6 million, up 16%; SmartCast Hours of 4.1 billion, up 14%; Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of $23.68, up 64%