Early Look

Thursday, May 22, 2025

U.S. futures are up slightly, trading in a tight range overnight (5,851 low and 5,876.75 high) after a volatile session on Wednesday as markets await the Tax bill resolution in Washington DC this morning. The Stoxx 600 falls 1%, on track for its biggest drop in more than six weeks as concerns over the US fiscal outlook trigger a broader risk-off move. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -313 points to 36,985, the Shanghai Index dipped -7 points to 3,380, and the Hang Seng Index fell -283 points to 23,544. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -200 points to 23,923, while the FTSE 100 declines -57 points to 8,729. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite registered their biggest daily % drop in a month (since April 21) as Treasury yields spiked after a disappointing 20-year Treasury auction (10-yr rose 10.8bps to 4.589%). Small cap stocks also fell sharply, with the Russell 2000 index posting its biggest daily loss since April 10th. Oil prices drop after Bloomberg reported OPEC+ members are discussing making a third consecutive oil production surge in July. In stock news, SNOW and AAP jump on earnings results while managed care stocks slip (UNH, HUN, CVS) after CMS Medicare headlines. Bitcoin making new all-time highs, rising 2.37% to $110,840.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -816.80 points, or 1.91%, to 41,860.44
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -270.07 points, or 1.41%, to 18,872.64
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -59.02 points, or 2.80% to 2,046.56

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.885M
• 8:30 AM ET                  National Activity index for April
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May-Flash…est. 50.1
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, May-Flash…est. 50.8
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, May-Flash
• 10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for April…est. 4.1M
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for May…prior (-5)

• Earnings After the Close: ADSK BULL CPRT DECK INTU ROST STEP SVM WDAY

• JP Morgan European Technology, Media & Telecoms Conference, 5/21-5/22, in London
• Sidoti Micro-Cap Virtual Conference, 5/21-5/22 (virtual)

• OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large production increase at their meeting on June 1, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday. An output hike of 411,000 barrels a day (bpd) for July is among the options under discussion, although no final agreement has yet been reached, the report said, citing delegates. Reuters has previously reported that OPEC+ will accelerate oil hikes and could bring back as much as 2.2 million bpd to the market by November, including via an accelerated increase in July.
• After a record streak of 50%+ bearish sentiment readings, the AAII Sentiment survey now has more bulls than bears according to Bespoke Invest. The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +1 vs -8.5 last week. Bulls rose to 37.7% from 35.9%, Neutrals rose to 25.6% from 19.7%, and Bears fall to 36.7% from 44.4%.
• Eurozone may composite PMI falls to 49.5; vs. forecast 50.6

• Amazon (AMZN) plans to start selling Nike (NKE) products with supplies coming directly from the company, an Amazon spokesperson confirmed on Wednesday. Winning back one of the world’s best-known brands is a victory for Amazon, which has long tried to expand its fashion business by wooing skeptical brands. Amazon to buy from Nike for the first time since 2019 according to The Information. https://tinyurl.com/4ttzv2x5
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) Q1 adj EPS $1.14 tops consensus $0.92; Q1 revs $5.03B vs. est. $5.19B; Q1 comparable club sales increased by 1.6% y/y; Q1 comparable club sales, excluding gasoline sales, increased by 3.9% year-over-year, led by traffic growth; said FY25 guidance unchanged.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) Q1 sales rose 10.7% y/y to $1.33B topping consensus $1.29B; Total Retail segment net sales increased 6.4%, with comparable Retail segment net sales increasing 4.8%; Q1 net income $108.3M, operating income $128.2M; Q1 Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 6.9% at Anthropologie, 3.1% at Free People and 2.1% at Urban Outfitters.
• Walmart (WMT) is planning to cut about 1,500 jobs as part of a restructuring push to simplify its operations, according to a memo seen by Reuters. The company’s plan will impact teams in its global technology operations, e-commerce fulfillment in U.S. stores and its advertising business Walmart Connect.
• QXO (QXO) 48.5M share Secondary priced at $16.50.

• Enersys (ENS) Q4 adj EPS $2.97 vs est. $2.78, adj op Inc $152.5Mm vs est. $134.17Mm on revs $974.8Mm vs est. $973.53Mm; guides Q1 sales $830-870Mm vs est. $906.92Mm and adj EPS $2.03-2.13 vs est. $2.40.
• Sable Offshore (SOC) 8.7M share Spot Secondary priced at $29.50.
• Sunrun (RUN) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital and cut tgt to $4 from $9.
• ZTO Express (ZTO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America.

• Radian Group (RDN) announces a new $750M share buyback authorization.
• TD Bank (TD) reported a fall in Q2 profit on Thursday, as provision for credit losses jumped to C$1.34 billion ($965.5 million) from C$1.07 billion a year earlier; reported record revenue of C$2.13 billion, a 10% jump from a year earlier; posted adjusted net income of C$3.63 billion, or C$1.97 per share, for the three months ended April 30, compared with C$3.79 billion, or C$2.04 per share, a year earlier.
• Fannie Mae (FNMA), Freddie Mac (FMCC): President trump last night said on truth Social, “I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, among others, and will be making a decision in the near future. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are doing very well, throwing off a lot of CASH, and the time would seem to be right. Stay tuned!

• UnitedHealthcare (UNH), Humana (HUM), CVS Health (CVS) among managed care names falling overnight after CMS launches expanded Medicare Advantage (MA) audit strategy; to review all eligible contracts, recover past overpayments, and expedite 2018–2024 audits with new resources.

• Zoom Communications (ZM) Q1 adj EPS $1.43 vs est. $1.31 on revs $1.17B vs est. $1.166B; guides FY revs $4.8-4.81B vs est. $4.788B and adj EPS $5.56-5.59 vs est. $5.41.
• Nvidia (NVDA) selects Navitas (NVTS) to collaborate on the next generation 800V HVDC architecture.
• American Superconductor (AMSC) Q4 EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.10; Q4 revs rose 60% y/y to $66.7M vs. est. $60.25M as increase was driven by organic growth in New Energy Power Systems revenues; guides Q1 revenue $64M-$68M vs. est. $60.6M.
• AT&T (T) to acquire Lumen (LUMN) Mass Markets fiber business for $5.75B.
• Comcast’s (CMCSA) NBCUniversal has made an offer to Major League Baseball to take over the package of regular-season and postseason games that Disney’s (DIS) ESPN is walking away from, offering much less than its rival currently pays – WSJ https://tinyurl.com/3zfp9xxh
• Domo Inc. (DOMO) Q1 adj EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.20) on revs $80.1Mm vs est. $77.91Mm; sees Q2 revs $77.5-78.5Mm vs est. $77.7Mm and adj EPS ($0.07) to ($0.03) vs est. ($0.07); sees FY revs $312-320Mm vs est. $314.39Mm and adj EPS ($0.26) to ($0.18) vs est. ($0.34).
• Lenovo Group (LNVGY) Q4 profit plunged 64% at $90 million, well short of consensus estimate of $225.8 million, while overall revenue for the January-March quarter climbed 23% from the same period a year earlier, ahead of analysts’ expectations of $15.6 billion.
• LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP) Q3 adj EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.28, adj op Inc $23Mm vs est. $22Mm on revs $189Mm vs est. $185.39Mm, adj gr mgn 72%; guides Q1 revs $191Mm vs est. $188.25Mm and adj op Inc $6Mm vs est. $32.64Mm; sees FY revs $787-817Mm vs est. $799.14Mm and adj op Inc $85-89Mm vs est. $168.8Mm.