Early Look

Friday, May 30, 2025

U.S. stock markets are on track for weekly gains, but futures are slipping overnight after an appeals court put on hold the ruling that voided nearly all of President Trump’s tariffs, while it considers the administration’s challenge to the decision. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on pace for their best monthly showing since November 2023 (+6.16% and 9.91% respectively MTD), while the Dow is also set for a near 4% monthly advance. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks with China are “a bit stalled,” and that a call between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping may be needed for the two countries to reach a deal. Regarding the tariff ruling, the administration could yet win the appeal but could also deploy alternative measures to institute or maintain tariffs. Specifically, the White House is considering using a provision of the Trade Act of 1974 that allows for levies of up to 15% for 150 days to address trade imbalances, The Wall Street Journal reported. Next up another busy slate of economic data starting at 8:30 AM with the April PCE Price Index M/M est. +0.1% (prior flat) and Y/Y est. +2.2% (prior +2.3%). the Core PCE Price Index M/M for April est. +0.1% (prior flat) and Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for April est. +2.5% (prior +2.6%). We will also get Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Sentiment tomorrow. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -467 points to 37,965, the Shanghai Index fell -15 points to 3,347, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -283 points to 23,289. In Europe, the German DAX is up 227 points to 24,160, while the FTSE 100 is up 68 points to 8,784. In earnings news, shares of ULTA, RRGB, PATH advanced on results last night while shares of AEO, ESTC, GAP and NTAP decline on results.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 117.03 points, or 0.28%, to 42,215.73
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 74.93 points, or 0.39%, to 19,175.87
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 6.90 points, or 0.33% to 2,074.70

• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for April…prior +0.7%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for April…est. +0.1% (prior flat)
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for April…est. +2.2% (prior +2.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index M/M for April…est. +0.1% (prior flat)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for April…est. +2.5% (prior +2.6%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Advance Goods Trade Balance for April…est. (-$143b)
• 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for May…est. 45.0 (prior 44.6)
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Sentiment, May-final…est. 51.0
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, May-final
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions conference, 5/28-5/30, in New York
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for May

• American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.29) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q1 revs $1.09B, in-line with consensus; Q1 total comparable sales declined (-3%) while Aerie comparable sales decreased (-4%) and American Eagle comparable sales declined (-2%); Q1 ending inventory decreased (-5%) to $645M; said sees Q2 revs down -5% and FY25 outlook remains withdrawn.
• Costco (COST) Q3 EPS $4.28 vs est. $4.24 on sales $61.96B vs est. $61.718B, comps +5.7% vs. est. +6.0%, adj comps +8%, adj e-commerce comps +15.7%; U.S. same-store sales rose 6.6% for the period. Comparable sales for Canada locations climbed 2.9%.
• Gap Inc. (GAP) shares fall on results; Q1 EPS $0.51 vs. est. $0.45; Q1 revs rose 2% to $3.46B vs. est. $3.42B; Q1 comp store sales +2% while Same-store sales were flat at Banana Republic and down 8% at Athleta; sees Q2 revenue ‘approximately flat y/y vs. consensus $3.73B and Q2 gross margin similar to Q1’25 gross margin; estimates that tariffs may total up to $300M in added costs this year; also backed its previous outlook for sales growth of 1% to 2%.
• Red Robin (RRGB) shares surge on results; Q1 revenue $392.4M, vs. consensus $388.77M; Q1 Ebitda $27.9M vs. est. $18.6M; Q1 comp store sales rose +3.1%; sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA $13M-$16M; cuts FY25 revenue view to $1.21B-$1.23B from $1.225B-$1.25B (est. $1.23B).
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Q1 EPS $6.70 vs. est. $5.81 and revs rose 4.5% y/y to $2.85B vs. est. $2.792B; Q1 comp store sales increased 2.9% vs. est. +0.2%; raises FY25 EPS view to $22.65-$23.20 from $22.50-$22.90 (est. $22.91) and guides FY25 revenue view higher to $11.5B-$11.7B from $11.5B-$11.6B (est. $11.26B).

• Rockwell Automation (ROK) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $350, up from $283 at Barclay’s.
• Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) increases its share repurchase program by $50M.

• Regeneron (REGN) and Sanofi (SNY) shares fall after saying Itepekimab met primary endpoint in one of two COPD Phase 3 trials; AERIFY-1 trial met the primary endpoint of significantly reducing moderate or severe acute exacerbations by 27% compared to placebo at week 52; said AERIFY-2 Phase 3 trial did not meet the primary endpoint.
• Roche Group (RHHBY) announced new 96-week data for fenebrutinib demonstrating that patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) maintained no disability progression and low levels of disease activity for up to two years.
• Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) shares rise; said topline results from the Phase III clinical trial, HARMONi, the first global Phase III study evaluating ivonescimab, successfully met the progression-free survival (PFS) primary endpoint and showed a positive trend in the other primary endpoint, overall survival (OS).

• Dell Inc. (DELL) Q1 adj EPS $1.55 vs est. $1.69, adj p Inc $1.666B vs est. $1.824B on revs $23.38B vs est. $23.14B; guides Q2 revs $28.5-29.5B vs est. $25.053B and adj EPS $2.25 at midpoint vs est. $2.09; sees FY revs $101.0-105.0B vs est. $102.82B, and adj EPS $9.40 at midpoint vs est. $9.20.
• Elastic NV (ESTC) Q4 adj EPS $0.47 vs est. $0.37 on revs $388Mm vs est. $380.4Mm, adj op mgn 15%; guides Q1 revs $396-398Mm vs est. $395.56Mm, adj op mgn approx 11.5% and adj EPS $0.41-0.43 vs est. $0.42; sees FY revs $1.655-1.67B vs est. $1.684B, adj op mgn approx 16% and adj EPS $2.24-2.32 vs est. $2.09.
• Marvell Technologies (MRVL) Q1 adj EPS $0.62 vs est. $0.61 on revs $1.895B vs est. $1.879B; guides Q2 revs $2.0B vs est. $1.982B, adj gr mgn 59-60% and adj EPS $0.62-0.72 vs est. $0.66.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) raises Q1 guidance as sees adj EPS $0.22-$0.26 up from prior view $0.18-$0.26 and revs from $1.02B-$1.07B to $1.04B-$1.07B vs $987.62M Est.
• NetApp Inc. (NTAP) Q4 adj EPS $1.93 vs est. $1.90 on revs $1.73B vs est. $1.724B; guides Q1 revs $1.455-1.605B vs est. $1.61B and adj EPS $1.48-1.58 vs est. $1.65; sees FY revs $6.625-6.875B vs est. $6.86B and adj EPS $7.60-7.90 vs est. $7.72.
• PagerDuty (PD) Q1 adj EPS $0.24 vs est. $0.19 on revs $119.8Mm vs est. $119.12Mm; sees Q2 revs $122.5-124.5Mm vs est. $123.87Mm and adj EPS $0.19-0.20 vs est. $0.23; sees FY revs $493-499Mm vs est. $503.66Mm and adj EPS $0.95-1.00 vs est. $0.93.
• UiPath (PATH) Q1 EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.10; Q1 revs $357M vs. est. $332.32M; Q1 ARR rose 12% y/y to $1.69B; sees Q2 revenue $345M-$350M vs. consensus $331.82M and sees Q2 ARR $1.715B-$1.72B; guided for full-year sales of $1.549B-$1.554B from previous outlook of approximately $1.53B.
• Zscaler (ZS) Q3 adj EPS $0.84 vs. est. $0.75; Q3 revs rose 23% y/y to $678M vs. est. $666.4M; Q3 Calculated billings grows 25% y/y to $784.5M and deferred revenue grows 26% y/y to $1.98B; Announced the appointment of Kevin Rubin as Chief Financial Officer; guides Q4 results above consensus.