Early Look

Thursday, November 4, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-13.00	0.04%	36,022
S&P 500	5.25	0.12%	4,657
Nasdaq	69.50	0.43%	16,199

 

 

U.S. equity futures are looking mixed as tech stocks are pushing further into record high territory, as global investors relish the dovish Federal Reserve policy statement following its widely-signaled tapering decision yesterday. The FOMC announced it will trim $15 billion from its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, a move that was widely anticipated and “baked-in” and was offset by Chairman Powell’s pledge to be patient on rate hikes while he repeated his view that ‘transitory” inflation pressures will ease into next year. The dovish assessment was accompanied by record-high readings for ISM services sector activity and the steepest gains in the prices paid component of the ISM data since 2005, Futures tied to the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite are indicating a 70-point gain from last night’s record close as benchmark 10-year notes yields ease back below 1.60%. Wall Street’s three main indexes closed at their highest levels ever despite the FOMC saying they will start trimming its monthly bond purchases in November, while sticking to its belief that high inflation will prove “transitory.” It was the fifth straight record high close for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and the fourth consecutive high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Major averages were mixed for much of the session, only to move higher after the Fed said that, in light of the economic recovery, it would begin cutting its bond purchases. Still absolutely no fear in the market as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tumble 7% below the 15 level. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 0.93% to 29,794, the Shanghai Index rose +0.8% to 3,526, and the Hang Seng Index climbed +0.8% to 25,225. In Europe, the German DAX is up around 70 points to move back above 16,000, while the FTSE 100 rises 10 points to 7,260. Oil rebounds, Bitcoin dips and stocks looking to make another run as markets around the globe looking higher again.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 29.92 points, or 0.65%, to 4,660.57

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 104.95 points, or 0.29%, to 36,157.58

·     The Nasdaq Composite spiked 161.98 points, or 1.04%, to 15,811.58

·     The Russell 2000 Index surged 42.42 points, or 1.80% to 2,404.28

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     7:30 AM ET         Challenger Layoffs for October

·     8:30 AM ET         Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 275K

·     8:30 AM EST      Continuing Claims…est. 2.118M

·     8:30 AM ET         U.S. Nonfarm Productivity for Q3…est. (-3.0%)

·     8:30 AM ET         Unit Labor Costs for Q3…est. +7.0%

·     8:30 AM ET         International Trade Balance for September…est. (-$80.5B)

·     10:30 AM ET      Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ABC, AES, AHCO, AKBA, ALE, APD, BALY, BCOR, BDX, BLDR, BLL, CFX, CHH, CNP, COMM, CTXS, DBRG, DEN, DIN, DNB, DUK, EPAM, FIS, GDP, GEL, GNL, GOGO, GOLF, GTN, HBI, HL, HMHC, HSKA, HWM, IDCC, IRM, ITRI, KTB, LAUR, LITE, LNG, LTRPA, LXP, MRNA, MTBC, MTSI, MUR, MYE, NEO, NKLA, NRG, NS, NTLA, OPCH, PBH, PBPB, PCTY, PENN, PH, PPL, REGN, REYN, SSYS, STOR, TGNA, TRGP, TWI, UFS, USPH, VG, VIAC, VNT, VSTO, W, WD, WMS, XRAY, ZBH, ZTS

·     Earnings After the Close: AAOI, ABNB, ACMR, AERI, AIG, AINV, ALEX, ALLO, ALRM, ALTR, AMN, AMRK, ANGI, AOSL, APPN, ARNA, ATSG, ATUS, AUTO, BE BGS, BHF, BIGC, BL, CABO, CC, CDR, CGNX, CHUY, CLNE, CLXT, CMBM, CNDT, COLD, CRY, CIT, CUBE, CVNA, DBX, DDOG, DK, DKL, DRH, DVAX, EBS, ED, ERII, EVC, EXPE, FARM, FATE, FND, FOXF, FSLR, FTNT, FWONA, GBT, GDOT, GH, FMED, GPRO, GSBD, HASI, HEAR, HTA, IAC, IHRT, ILMN, ONGN, IOVA, IRTC, JYNT LASR, LGF/A, LLNW, LNT, LOCO, LTHM, LYV, MCHP, MDRX, MNDT, MNST, MP, MSI, NET, NKTR, NLOK, NPTN, NTRA, NVAX, NWSA, OUT, OXY, PBYI, PINS, PODD, PTON, QDEL, RDFN, REG, REZI, RKT, ROG, RUN, SALM, SFM, SHAK, SQ, SWKS, SYNA, TDC, TGH, TMST, TTOO, UBER, VIAV, VRAY, VVI, WELL, WMC, WSC, WW, WWE, Y, YELP, ZEUS, ZGNX

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	1.17	82.03
Brent	1.25	83.24
Gold	14.50	1,780.50
EUR/USD	-0.0065	1.1544
JPY/USD	-0.02	113.96
10-Year Note	-0.004	1.575%

 

 

World News

·     European PMI Data: Germany Sep Factory Orders: m/m 1.3% vs 1.8% cons; y/y 9.7% vs 11.3% consensus; Spain Oct Services PMI: 56.6 vs 55.8 consensus; Italy Oct Services PMI: 52.4 vs 54.5 consensus; France Oct Services PMI: 56.6 in line; Germany Oct Services PMI: 52.4 in line; Eurozone Oct Services PMI: 54.6 vs 54.7 consensus

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) 3Q adj EPS $0.65 vs est. $0.70 on revs $754.5Mm vs est. $762.6Mm, comps +41.1% (4Q comps thru Nov. 2 are +10.5% vs 2019); as of today, nearly all restaurants across concepts are operating with no indoor dining restrictions, believe well positioned to achieve targeted 7%-unit growth for next year

·     Costco Wholesale (COST) Q3 net sales of $16.47B for retail month of October, four weeks ended October 31, 2021, up 19.2% from $13.82 bln last year; Oct. 2021 total company comparable sales up 17.5% vs. est. 12.4%; Oct. U.S. comp sales ex-gas, FX +11.7% vs. est. +7.50%

·     Elf beauty (ELF) Q2 adj EPS $0.48 on vs est. $0.13 on sales $91.9M vs est. $83.7M; raised FY22 sales outlook to $364M-$370M from $357M-$364M (est. $366.7M)

·     Fisker (FSR) 3Q EPS ($0.37) vs est. ($0.35) on revs $15,000

·     Golden Entertainment (GDEN) 3Q EPS $0.91 vs est. $0.74 on revs $282.4Mm vs est. $259.2Mm

·     Host Hotels (HST) 3Q adj FFO/share $0.20 vs est. $0.14 on revs $844Mm vs est. $792.3Mm, says qtrly all owned hotels pro forma REVPAR +26% sequentially; sees FY CAPEX $410-465Mm

·     Hyatt (H) 3Q adj EPS $2.31 vs est. ($0.36), comparable system-wide REVPAR increased to $93.70 (-31.8% vs 2019 on reported basis); comparable owned & leased hotel REVPAR rose to $117.33 (-35.5% vs 2019 on reported basis); expect net rooms growth to be greater than 6% for FY21

·     MGM Resorts (MGM) Q3 adj EPS $0.03 vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q3 revs up 140% YoY to $2.7B vs. est. $2.48B; qtrly MGM China net revenues of $289 mln, an increase of 517% compared to prior year qtr; qtrly Las Vegas strip resorts casino revenue was $423M for Q3 compared to $189M; Las Vegas strip resorts rooms revenue was $403M in Q3 compared to $138 million

·     Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) Q3 EPS $0.97 vs est. $0.86 on revenue $641.2M vs est. $639.9M; sees FY21 EPS $3.93-$4.03 vs est. $3.88 on revenue $2.67B-$2.7B vs est. $2.66B

·     Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) Q3 AFFO $0.02 vs. est. 0c; Q3 revs $423M vs. est. $419.05M; said isn’t providing an outlook for year 2021

·     Rent-A-Center (RCII) 3Q adj EPS $1.52 vs est. $1.50 on revs $1.2B vs est. $1.15B; guides FY revs $4.55-4.64B vs est. $4.63B, sees FY adj EPS $5.90-6.15 vs est. $6.27

·     Revolve Group (RVLV) 3Q EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.14 on revs 244.1Mm vs est. $214.7Mm

 

Energy

·     Ameren Corp. (AEE) 3Q EPS $1.65 vs est. $1.61 on revs $1.81B vs est. $1.76B; raises FY EPS guide to $3.75-3.95 from $3.65-3.85 vs est. $3.77

·     APA Corp. (APA) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.30) on revs $2.06B; raises quarterly dividend to 12.5c; reported qtrly production of 389,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day; qtrly adjusted production, which excludes Egypt noncontrolling interest and tax barrels, was 336,000 boe per day

·     Marathon Oil (MRO) Q3 adj EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.31; Q3 revenue $1.45B vs. est. $1.31B; approves share repurchase authorization increase to $2.5B; Q3 oil-equivalent production of 345,000 net boed, including oil production of 168,000 net bopd; no change to midpoint of 2021 total Company oil or oil-equivalent production guidance; backs 2021 capital expenditure guidance of $1B

·     Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) Q3 adj EPS $4.13 vs est. $4.56 on revenue $4.46B vs est. $3.19B; avg oil production 389k barrels/day, 676K MBOEPD in upper half of guidance range, avg realized oil price $69.24/barrel; proposed variable cash dividend $3.02 (+100% vs Q2), raised base dividend $0.62 from $0.52 in Q2; confirmed it sold all of its Delaware Basin assets to $CLR for $3.25B in cash and expects to recognize a pretax loss of $990M-$1.1B associated with the divestiture; shares +0.35% after results, asset sale

·     Renewable Energy (REGI) Q3 adj EPS $0.83 vs est. $1.17 on revenue $1B vs est. $908.3M, adj EBITDA $68M vs est. $80.2M; Initiated partnership with Canadian National Railway Company and Progress Rail to advance sustainability goals using bio-based diesel in locomotives

·     SunPower (SPWR) Q3 adj EPS 6c vs est. 3c on revenue $323.6M vs est. $333M; sees full-year revenue and adj EBITDA below prior guidance

·     Whiting Petroleum (WLL) Q3 EPS $3.57 vs. est. $3.06; Q3 revs $401M vs. est. $308.7M; production for q3 averaged 92.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) consistent with previous qtr of 92.6 mboe/d; expects to continue to fund its operations fully within operating cash flow; forecasts to be in a positive net cash position with no outstanding balance on its credit facility by end of 2021

 

Financials

·     Allstate (ALL) Q3 adj EPS $0.73 vs. est. $1.67; Q3 revs rose 16.9% YoY to $12.5B vs. est. $10.59B; total revenues of $12.5 billion in the third quarter of 2021 increased 16.9% compared to the prior year quarter; property-liability written premium of $11.0 billion increased 16.7% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the prior year quarter

·     Fleetcor (FLT) Q3 adj EPS $3.52 vs. est. $3.48; Q3 revs $755.5M vs. est. $739.48M; sees FY21 adj EPS $13.00-$13.10 vs. est. $12.97; sees FY21 revenue $2.785B-$2.805B vs. est. $2.77B

·     Lincoln National (LNC) Q3 adj EPS $1.62 on sales $2.7B; BVPS, including AOCI, of $113.77, up 2%; BVPS, excluding AOCI, of $76.96, up 8%

·     MetLife (MET) Q3 adj EPS $2.39 vs. est. $1.74; Q3 revs $16.9B vs. est. $16.28B; qtrly premiums, fees and other revenues $11.64 bln vs $11.89 bln; book value of $77.24 per share at qtr-end, up 1% from $76.20 per share at September 30, 2020

 

Healthcare

·     10x Genomics (TXG) Q3 EPS ($0.15) vs est. ($0.19) on revenue $125.3M vs est. $122.6M; raised lowered end of FY revenue forecast, now seeing $490M-$500M from $480M-$500M (est. $489.8M)

·     Cigna (CI) Q3 adj EPS $5.73 vs. est. $5.22; Q3 revs $44.31B vs. est. $42.91B; Q3 pharmacy customer base at Q3 grew to 103.6M, an organic increase of 4.8M year to date; total medical customer base at Q3 grew to 17M, an increase of 368,000 customers year to date; boosts FY21 adjusted EPS view to at least $20.35 from at least $20.20 and raises FY21 revenue view to at least $172B from at least $170B

·     CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) reports better-than-feared net loss per share of $1.67 for Q3 2021; announced updates to its clinical programs; net loss expanded ~38% YoY to $127.2M driven by ~48% YoY rise in R&D expenses

·     OraSure Technologies (OSUR) 3Q EPS ($0.21) vs est. ($0.04) on revs $53.9Mm vs est. $47.5Mm; raises FY revs guide to $230-233Mm vs est. $235.9Mm

·     Sarepta (SRPT) 3Q adj EPS ($0.19) vs est. ($1.89) on revs $189.4Mm vs est. $173.4Mm; raises FY product revs guidance to $605-615Mm

·     Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) 3Q EPS $0.40 vs est. $0.23 on revs $148.5Mm vs est. $142.1Mm; guides FY revs $550-570Mm vs est. $560.7Mm

·     Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Q3 EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.06; Q3 revs $179.6M vs. est. $171.4M; raises FY21 rev view to $685M-$695M from $670M-$685M (est. $684.32M); Worldwide pump shipments increased 43% to 31,558 pumps from 22,021 pump; gross margin improved to 54% of sales from 53%; operating margin improved to 4% of sales from negative 1% of sales

·     Trupanion (TRUP) 3Q EPS ($0.17) vs est. ($0.18) on revs $181.7Mm vs est. $177.6Mm; total enrolled pets +37%, subscription enrolled pets +22%

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Albemarle (ALB) Q3 adj EPS $1.05 vs. est. $0.77; Q3 revs $830.6M vs. est. $770.38M; raises FY21 adj EPS view to $3.85-$4.15 from $3.35-$3.70 (est. $3.64); raises FY21 revenue view to $3.3B-$3.4B from $3.2B-$3.3B; qtrly lithium net sales of $359.2 mln increased $93.6 mln; says improved outlook for full-year 2021 reflects a strong third-quarter performance and assumes continued global economic recovery

·     AMERCO (UHAL) Q2 EPS $20.90 vs est. $15.48 on revenue $1.66B vs est. $1.57B

·     Corteva (CTVA) Q3 adj EPS loss (-$0.14) vs. est. loss (-$0.31); Q3 revs $2.3B vs. est. $2.03B; Raises FY21 revenue view to $15.5B-$15.7B from $15.2B-$15.4B and boosts FY21 operating EPS view to $2.05-$2.15 from $2.00-$2.10

·     Curtiss-Wright (CW) Q3 adj EPS $1.88 vs. est. $1.82; Q3 revs $621M vs. est. 609.36M; generated strong free cash flow of approximately $100M; now sees FY21 adjusted EPS $7.20-$7.35 from prior $7.15-$7.35 and vs. est. $7.22; still sees FY21 sales growth 7%-9% and reaffirms adjusted operating margin range of 16.7% to 16.8%

·     Ingersoll rand (IR) 3Q adj EPS $0.57 vs est. $0.47 on revs $1.325B vs est. $1.276B; raises FY revs guide to +high-teens vs est. +3.7%

·     Manitowoc (MTW) Q3 adj EPS $0.06 vs. est. $0.11; Q3 revs rose 13.8% to $404.5M but below est. $457.17M; cuts FY21 revenue view to $1.725B-$1.775B from $1.775B-$1.825B (est. $1.79B) and lowers FY21 adjusted EBITDA view to $100M-$110M from $105M-$115M

·     Maxar Technologies (MAXR) 3Q EPS $0.19 vs est. $0.20 on revs $437Mm vs est. $448.9Mm, says advanced legion construction program and expect to launch first two satellites in March-June 2022 window

·     Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) entered into a definitive agreement to sell its highway products business for $375 million in cash, subject to customary closing conditions and adjustments

 

Media & Telecom

·     Fox Corp. (FOXA) Q1 adj EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.08; Q1 revs $3.05B vs. est. $2.94B; advertising revs rise 17% YoY to $1.13B, cable network programming revs up 6.9% YoY to $1.42B and TV revs rise 17% YoY to $1.58B

·     Equinix (EQIX) Q3 EPS $1.68 vs est. $1.57, adj FFO $6.94 vs est. $6.69 on in-line revenue $1.68B; sees Q4 revs $1.685B-$1.705B vs est $1.71B, lowered FY revenue guide to $6.614B-$6.634B from $6.62B-$6.66B (est. $6.65B), narrowed FY adj FFO range to $27.03-$27.25 from $26.92-$27.36 (est. $27.27)

·     Liberty Global (LBTYA) Q3 revenue decreased 33.2% yoy on a reported basis and increased 0.7% on a rebased basis to $1,901.4 million; Q3 earnings from continuing operations increased 132.0% yoy on a reported basis to $315.6 million

 

Technology

·     Booking.com (BKNG) Q3 adj EPS $37.70 vs. est. $32.90; Q3 revs $4.7B vs. est. $4.3B; Q3 gross travel bookings of $23.7B, an increase of 77% YoY, or approximately a 75% increase on a constant-currency basis; Q3 room nights booked in Q3 increased 44% YoY

·     EA Inc. (EA) Q2 GAAP EPS $1.02 vs. est. $1.17; Q2 net bookings $1.85B vs. est. $1.75B; raises FY22 EPS view to $2.03 from $1.58 and raises FY22 net bookings view to $7.625B from $7.4B; proposes qtrly cash dividend $0.17 per share of the company’s common stock

·     Etsy (ETSY) Q3 EPS $0.62 vs est. $0.54 on revenue $532.4M vs est. $518.9M; sees Q4 revenue $660M-$690M vs est. $689.9M; consolidated GMS was $3.1 billion, up 17.9% Yoy; while Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.7 billion, up 12.4% YoY; excluding face masks, Etsy marketplace GMS grew 23.7% YoY; GMS per active buyer for the Etsy marketplace on a trailing twelve month basis grew 20% YoY

·     Fastly (FSLY) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.11) vs. est. loss (-$0.19); Q3 revenue $87M vs. est. $83.7M; Q3 Enterprise customer count4 increased to 430 from 408 in Q2, total customer count increased to 2,748 from 2,581 in Q2, and Net Retention Rate was 112%, compared to 93% in Q2; sees FY21 EPS (58c) to (55c) vs. est. loss (60c); sees year revs $347M-$350M vs. est. $345.8M

·     GoDaddy (GDDY) 3Q EPS $0.58 vs est. $0.40 on revs $964Mm vs est. $945.6Mm; guides 4Q revs $970Mm vs est. $971.3Mm; sees FY revs $3.765B vs est. $3.752B

·     HubSpot (HUBS) 3Q adj EPS $0.50 vs est. $0.43 on revs $339.2Mm vs est. $326.4Mm; guides 4Q adj EPS $0.52-0.54 vs est. $0.52, sees 4Q revs $356-358Mm vs est. $352.4Mm; guides FY adj EPS $1.76-1.78 vs est. $1.69, sees FY revs $1.287-1.289B vs est. $1.271B

·     Ping Identity (PING) 3Q EPS ($0.14) vs est. $0.04 on revs $76.2Mm vs est. $68.1Mm; guides FY revs $291-297Mm vs est. $283.2Mm, sees FY total ARR $306-308Mm

·     Qualcomm (QCOM) 4Q adj EPS $2.55 vs est. $2.26 on revs $9.23B vs est. $8.86B; guides 1Q revs $10.0-10.8B vs est. $9.68B, sees 1Q adj EPS $2.90-3.10 vs est. $2.59

·     Qualys (QLYS) Q3 adj EPS $0.86 vs. est. $0.79; Q3 revs $104.9M vs. est. $104.11M; raises FY21 adj EPS view to $3.16-$3.18 from $3.02-$3.07 and boosts FY21 revenue view to $409.5M-$410.1M from $406M-$407.5M

·     Qorvo (QRVO) Q2 EPS $3.42 vs. est. $3.25; Q2 revs $1.26B vs. est. $1.25B; guides Q3 EPS $2.75 vs. est. $3.26; sees Q3 revenue $1.09B-$1.12B, below consensus $1.25B; sees Q3 gross margin 52%-52.5%

·     Roku Inc. (ROKU) 3Q adj EBITDA $130.1Mm vs est. $69Mm on revs $680Mm vs est. $683Mm; guides 4Q adj EBITDA 65-75Mm vs est. 85.2Mm, sees 4Q revs $885-900Mm vs est. $944.4Mm

·     Skillz Inc. (SKLZ) Q3 revenue in-line $102.1M, paying MAU +47% YoY, MAU +11% YoY and +25% sequentially; reaffirmed FY rev outlook of $389M vs est. $390M

·     Take-Two (TTWO) 2Q EPS $0.09 vs est. $1.34 on revs 858.2Mm vs est. $867.5Mm; sees 3Q revs $840-890Mm vs est. $949.4Mm, sees 3Q EPS $0.85-0.95 vs est. $1.13; raises FY net bookings guide to $3.3-3.4B

·     Upland Software (UPLD) 3Q EPS ($0.36) on revs $76.1Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA $95-97Mm vs est. $98.2Mm