Early Look

Friday, November 11, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	164.00	0.49%	33,76
S&P 500	19.75	0.50%	3,980
Nasdaq	74.50	0.64%	11,706

 

 

U.S. futures are looking higher, adding to yesterday’s strong rally by rising +0.5% to 3,982 (overnight high 3,997.50 and low 3,957.25) ahead of some more economic data. Huge post-CPI price action on Thursday, with major averages posting their best daily return in over 2-years as the S&P 500 posted its biggest daily pct gain Since April 6, 2020, of 5.5% (its 15^th best trading day since 1953 as per Bespoke), the Nasdaq Composite its biggest daily pct gain since March 24, 2020, at 7.35% and the Dow with its biggest daily pct gain since May 18, 2020, of 3.7%. The decelerating inflation data helped spark a rise in stocks and induced a sharp decline in Treasury yields and the dollar, boosting sentiment across the board. The U.S. dollar slumped over 2.25% vs. major currencies (worst day since 2015), sliding 4.1% vs. the Japanese yen to $140.39 (biggest 1-day drop since 1998) while the euro topped $1.02. The Dow Transports topped their 200-day moving average resistance and the Smallcap Russell 2000 neared its 200-day. Not carrying the same weight as the CPI inflation data but has impacted mkts over the last month is the University of Michigan 1y and 5-yr inflation expectations data later this morning. Expected around 10:00 AM, the last reading was for 1-yr at 5.0% and 5-yr expectations index 2.9% – worth watching for possible mkt follow thru on a softer reading. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 817 points or nearly 3% to 28,263, the Shanghai Index gained 51 points to 3,087, and the Hang Seng Index spiked 1,244 points or 7.74% to settle at 17,325. In Europe, the German DAX is up 95 points to 14,241, while the FTSE 100 slips -17 points to 7,358. Reports that China eased pandemic controls, as the country’s leaders seek to lessen the pain of a stringent zero-Covid policy that has exacted a heavy economic toll helped boost markets. Reminder bond markets are closed today for Veteran’s Day.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index spiked 207.80 points, or 5.54%, to 3,956.37

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,201.43 points, or 3.70%, to 33,715.37

·     The Nasdaq Composite surged 760.97 points, or 7.35%, to 11,114.15

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 107.53 points, or 6.11% to 1,867.93

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     10:00 AM ET           University of Michigan Sentiment, Nov-P…est. 59.5

·     10:00 AM ET           University of Michigan Sentiment Inflation Expectations, Nov-P

·     1:00 PM ET             Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: MNOV PLXP SDPI

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	2.95	89.42
Brent	2.95	96.63
Gold	6.00	1,759.80
EUR/USD	0.0064	1.0271
JPY/USD	-1.06	139.88
10-Year Note	closed	For holiday

 

 

World News

·     China eased pandemic controls, as the country’s leaders seek to lessen the pain of a stringent zero-Covid policy that has exacted a heavy economic toll and stoked rising public resentment – WSJ

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Beazer Homes (BZH) Q4 EPS $2.82 vs. est. $2.00; Q4 revs rose 40% y/y to $827.7M vs. est. $701.5M; Q4 Backlog $1.14 billion, -11% y/y, new home deliveries 1,616, +15% y/y, cash, and cash equivalents $214.6 million, -13% y/y and cancellation rate 32.8% vs. 11.7% y/y

·     FIGS Inc. (FIGS) Q3 EPS $0.02, in-line with consensus and revs $128.6M vs. est. $124.2M; Gross margin was 70.6%, a decrease of 210 basis points year over year, primarily due to an increase in freight-in costs; Operating expenses were $79.6 million, an increase of 24.1% y/y

·     Flowers Foods (FLO) Q3 adj EPS $0.30 vs. est. $0.28; Q3 revs $1.16B vs. est. $1.14B; backs FY22 adjusted EPS view $1.25-$1.30 (est. $1.28) while narrows FY22 revenue view to $4.807B-$4.85B from $4.764B-$4.85B (est. $4.8B)

·     Mister Car Wash (MCW) Q3 net revs $217.6M vs. est. $216.3M; sees FY comp sales +4% to +5%, vs. prior view +3% to +5%; sees FY adj EPS 38c-39c, vs. prior 36c-39c

·     Microvast Holdings (MVST) 3Q adj EBITDA ($12.6Mm) vs est. ($23.1Mm) on revs $38.6Mm vs est. $52.7Mm; sees FY revs +35-40% vs est. +36.9%

·     Poshmark (POSH) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.30) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); Q3 revs $88.43M vs. est. $86.62; Q3 GMV was $475.6M; said given Poshmark’s pending acquisition by Naver corp., it is no longer issuing forward-looking guidance

·     Xponential Fitness (XPOF) 3Q adj EPS $0.10 vs est. $0.14 on revs $63.8Mm vs est. $55.3Mm, N. Am. comps +17%; sees FY revs $235-240Mm vs est. $223.8Mm, adj EBITDA $70-74Mm vs prior guide $68-72Mm and est. $70.9Mm

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     DTE Energy (DTE) said it sees 2023 operating EPS $6.09 to $6.40, vs. est. $6.27 and still sees FY operating EPS $5.90 to $6.10, vs. est. $6.02

·     Occidental Petroleum (OXY) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler

·     Steel Dynamics (STLD) announces additional $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization

·     Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank America

·     Heartland Express (HTLD), Werner (WERN) and Schneider National (SNDR) all upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

 

Financials

·     LegalZoom (LZ) Q3 EPS $0.05 vs. est. $0.04; Q3 revs rose 4% y/y to $154.4M vs. est. $149.9M; raises 2022 revs view to $617M-$619M from prior view $612M-$616M and boosts year adj Ebitda to about $60M from $55M prior

·     Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Q3 adj EPS $0.25 vs. est. $0.26; Q3 revs rose 16.8% y/y to $412M vs. est. $422.93M; organic revenue growth rate guidance range for FY22 is now 14.5 – 16.0%, vs prior guidance range of 16.5% – 18.0%

 

Healthcare

·     Doximity (DOCS) 2Q adj EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.16 on revs $102.2Mm vs est. $100.1Mm; sees 3Q revs $110.7-111.7Mm vs est. $114.9Mm, sees FY revs $424-432Mm vs est. $426.4Mm

·     Mediwound Ltd (MDWD) files for resale of up to 28.2 mln of ordinary shares by the selling shareholders

·     Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) authorizes $4 billion of share repurchases

·     Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Elon Musk told Twitter employees on Thursday the company may have a “net negative cash flow of several billion dollars” next year – the information reported

·     Blend Labs (BLND) Q3 adj EPS loss (-$0.57) vs. est. loss (-$0.17); Q3 revs $55.4M vs. est. $50.4M; narrows FY22 revenue view to $235M-$250M from $230M-$250M (est. $234.66M)

·     Compass Inc. (COMP) 3Q EPS ($0.36) vs est. ($0.34) on revs $1.49B vs est. $1.44B, GTV $57.3B vs $69.1B year ago; guides 4Q revs $1.15-1.30B vs est. $1.415B, adj EBITDA ($80Mm)-($50Mm) vs est. ($19.9Mm) and FY revs $6.05-6.20B vs est. $6.28B, adj EBITDA ($215Mm)-($185Mm) vs est. ($190.6Mm)

·     CS Disco (LAW) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.34) vs. est. loss (-$0.31); Q3 revs rose 15% y/y to $34.5M vs. est. $32.9M; sees FY22 revenue $132M-$136M vs. est. $134.3M

·     Duolingo (DUOL) 3Q adj EBITDA $2.1Mm vs est. ($2.4); bookings 102.7Mm, revs $96.1Mm vs est. $95.3Mm, DAUs +51% to 14.9Mm, MAUs +35% to 56.5Mm; guides 4Q revs $98-101Mm vs est. $100.4Mm

·     Matterport (MTTR) 3Q adj EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.13) on revs $38Mm vs est. $35.9Mm; total subs +50% to 657,000, spaces under management +40% to 8.7Mm

·     Toast Inc. (TOST) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.19) vs. est. loss (-$0.09); Q3 revs rose 55% y/y to $752M vs. est. $721M; raises FY22 revenue view to $2.692B-$2.722B from $2.62B-$2.66B (est. $2.66B) and boosts FY22 adjusted EBITDA view to ($127M)-($117M) from ($160M)-($140M)

·     DoubleVerify (DV) 10M share Spot Secondary priced at $26.40