Early Look

Monday, October 11, 2021

U.S. stock futures are edging lower ahead of the Columbus Day holiday, with oil prices extending last week gains and moving to fresh 7-year highs ahead of key inflation data later this week and the upcoming earnings season, which starts Friday with the big banks (JPM, Citi). Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs cuts its 2021 economic growth forecast by 10 basis points, to 5.6%, while lowering its 2022 estimate by 40 basis point to 4% citing a “longer lasting virus drag on virus-sensitive consumer services” and the impact of an extended shortage in global semiconductors. The bond market is closed today in observance of the Columbus Day holiday after the 10-year yield closed at 1.612% on Friday, the highest level of the week. Oil prices extending gains, as WTI crude rises over $2.20 or 2.8% above $81.50. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 449 points (1.6%%) to 28,498, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 3,591, and the Hang Seng Index jumped nearly 2% or 487 points to settle at 25,325. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -50 points to 15,150, while the FTSE 100 is up about 0.25% at 7,110. Q quiet day expected ahead with no economic data and bond markets closed.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -8.42 points, or 0.19%, to 4,391.34

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -8.69 points, or 0.03%, to 34,746.25

The Nasdaq Composite slid -74.48 points, or 0.51%, to 14,579.54

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -17.00 points, or 0.76% to 2,233.09

Events Calendar for Today

·     No Major Economic Data

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AZZ, ENZ, FAST

·     Earnings After the Close: PNFP, SGH

Other Key Events:

·     American Society of Retina Specialists Annual Scientific Meeting, in San Antonio, TX 10/8-10/12

World News

·     Goldman Sachs cuts its forecast for U.S economic growth over the weekend, citing a “longer lasting virus drag on virus-sensitive consumer services” and the impact of an extended shortage in global semiconductors. Goldman trimmed its 2021 growth forecast by 10 basis points, to 5.6%, while lowering its 2022 estimate by 40 basis point to 4%, adding that consumer spending is likely to be held back by pandemic uncertainty and a softer-than-expected fiscal response from the Biden administration.

·     Taiwan will keep bolstering its defenses to ensure nobody can force them to accept the path China has laid down that offers neither freedom nor democracy, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Sunday – Reuters

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Southwest Airlines (LUV) cancelled 808 flights yesterday and has cancelled another 1,006 today, according to data from Flightaware.com. The company blamed the disruption on air traffic control issues and weather, although other major airlines are not delaying or cancelling flights at an elevated rate. There was speculation that some Southwest employees have called in sick in a form of protest over the mandatory vaccination rules in place, which have been unconfirmed

·     Hasbro (HAS) said CEO Brian Goldner will take a medical leave of absence, effective immediately, slightly more than a year after disclosing that he was undergoing continued medical care following treatment for cancer in 2014.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Honeywell (HON) raised its business outlook for jet deliveries on Sunday as travel restrictions ease as they now see 7,400 new business jet deliveries worth $238 bln over the next 10 years, up 1% from the same 10-year forecast a year ago. Business jet operators surveyed by Honeywell reported a sharp increase in their used jet purchase plans, 12% above last year’s report

·     Emerson Electric (EMR) plans to merge two of its software businesses with Aspen Technology (AZPN) in a roughly $11B deal that values Aspen at around $160 a share, as shareholders would receive $87 and 0.42 share of the combined company for each share they currently own – WSJ https://on.wsj.com/3FxyVx7

·     Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) agrees to acquire Ferrous Processing and Trading, one of the largest processors and distributors of prime ferrous scrap in the U.S., in a deal with an enterprise value of ~$775M.

·     Tutor Perini’s (TPC) joint-venture signed a contract valued at ~$178 million by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, for the Friant-Kern Canal Middle Reach Capacity Correction Phase I project in central California, southeast of Visalia.

Financials

·     Prudential (PRU) mentioned positively in Barron’s saying for many years, Prudential Financial’s stock had a nice yield, but it didn’t offer much capital appreciation. The pandemic didn’t help, as the shares lost about 12% last year, dividends included, versus an 18% return for the S&P 500 index. But the market has changed its view, partly owing to an uptick in rates. On top of that, Prudential, whose businesses include life insurance, variable annuities, and asset management, is getting some credit for more-consistent earnings in recent years.

Healthcare

·     Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) to acquire Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ADMS) through a tender offer for $8.10 per share in cash (or an aggregate of approximately $400 million), payable at closing plus two non-tradable contingent value rights (CVR) collectively worth up to $1.00 per share in cash (or an aggregate of approximately $50 million), for a total consideration of $9.10 per share in cash (or an aggregate of approximately $450 million).

·     AstraZeneca (AZN) Phase 3 trial met its primary end point; trial showed a reduced risk of death & severe C-19 by 67% in a trial where 90% of participants were from high-risk categories; only long acting antibody combination that can both prevent & treat C-19

·     Merck (MRK) submitted an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the U.S. FDA for molnupiravir, an investigational oral antiviral medicine, for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who are at risk for progressing to severe COVID-19 and/or hospitalization

·     Regenxbio (RGNX) announces initial data from the ongoing Phase II ALTITUDE trial of RGX-314 for the treatment of diabetic retinopathy (DR) without center-involved diabetic macular edema (CI-DME) using in-office suprachoroidal delivery.

·     BeiGene (BGNE) announced that BRUKINSA has been approved in Australia for the treatment of adult patients with mantle cell lymphoma who have received at least one prior therapy

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Apple (AAPL) asked a federal appeals court on Friday to throw out a legal decision that would require the tech giant to tweak its strict App Store rules and force it to allow app developers to inform customers of ways to pay for subscriptions and services outside the App Store – NYT

·     Gray Television (GTN) a positive mention in Barron’s saying at about $23.50 a share, it has a price/earnings ratio of five based on 2022 estimates. It looks like an inexpensive way to bet on broadcast as Gray’s strength in local news helps it make a killing in political ads

·     Toshiba Corp (6502.T) said it would announce the results of a strategic review of its business along with its quarterly earnings results and a new mid-term business plan on Nov. 12. A spokesperson said the results of Toshiba’s strategic review would be part of the new business plan. The company had previously said the review would be announced this month.

·     U.S.-listed Chinese tech stocks Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD) and Baidu (BIDU) among market leaders early; BABA shares up over 5% after Reuters noted the Daily Journal Corp, chaired by Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, boosted its holdings in BABA by 83% during Q3, according to public disclosures. Also helping sentiment in China listed stocks, China’s antitrust regulator also fines delivery giant Meituan 3.4 bln yuan ($527.4 mln), a smaller than expected figure, for abusing its dominant market position

·     Comcast (CMCSA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James