Early Look

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	107.00	0.31%	35,025
S&P 500	18.25	0.40%	4,535
Nasdaq	65.50	0.42%	15,618

 

 

U.S. futures looking higher overnight heading into an important day filled with several potential market moving catalysts. A potential strike in the auto industry is upon us if no deal can be reached with the UAW and the Detroit big three by midnight tonight. The European Central bank (ECB) policy meeting results expected within the hour. A bevy of key economic data reports on tap at 8:30 AM ET including the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, weekly jobless claims, and monthly retail sales data to get a gauge on the strength of the US economy. There are also a few key earnings results after the close with Adobe (ADBE) in software and Lennar (LEB) in housing. Treasury yields and the dollar are little changed into the data and ECB while oil extends its recent run higher. Also, overnight, the largest initial public offering (IPO) of the year priced as ARM 95.5M priced at $51.00, the high end of the $47-$51 price range. Stocks posted modest gains and bonds reversed early losses Wednesday after a mixed inflation report reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will pause its rate hikes — but refrain from calling the end of its tightening cycle. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 461 points to 33,168, the Shanghai Index edges higher 3 points to 3,126, and the Hang Seng Index rises 38 points to 18,047. In Europe, the German DAX is up 20 points to 15,674, while the FTSE 100 rises 79 points to 7,605.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index edged higher 5.58 points, or 0.13%, to 4,467.48.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -70.29 points, or 0.20%, to 34,575.70.

·     The Nasdaq Composite climbed 39.96 points, or 0.29%, to 13,813.58.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -14.48 points, or 0.78% to 1,840.84.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET            Advance Retail Sales M/M for August…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET            Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for August…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET            Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 225K (prior week 216K)

·     8:30 AM ET            Continuing Claims…est. 1.695M (prior 1.679M)

·     8:30 AM ET            Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline M/M for August…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET            Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline Y/Y for August…est. +1.2%

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for August…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for August…est. +2.2%

·     10:00 AM ET          Business Inventories M/M for July…est.

·     10:30 AM ET          Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: None

·     Earnings After the Close: ADBE CPRT EGAN IPW LEN LPTH MITK RFIL RSSS

 

Other Key Events:

·     Benchmark Technology, Media & Telecom 1:1 Conference, 9/13-9/14, in NY

·     B. Riley 2023 Consumer Conference 9/14, in New York

·     Deutsche Bank Healthcare Growth & Innovation Conference, 9/13-9/14, in New York

·     Salesforce Dreamforce 2023 in San Francisco, 9/12-9/14

·     China Industrial Output, Retail Sales for August

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	1.15	89.67
Brent	1.01	92.88
Gold	-3.00	1,929.50
EUR/USD	0.0004	1.0732
JPY/USD	-0.10	147.35
10-Year Note	+0.014	4.262%

 

 

World News

·     China’s central bank will cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points from Sept. 15, it said in a statement on Thursday; reserve requirement ratio cut effective as of Sept 15.

·     The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 5.2 vs 12.6 last week. Bulls fall to 34.4% from 42.2%, Neutrals rise to 36.4% from 28.2%, Bears fall to 29.2% from 29.6%.

·     Australia’s total employment increased by 64.9k (expectations 25k) in August. The unemployment rate remained at a relatively low 3.7%.

·     UK Aug House Price Balance: -68 vs -56 consensus; RICS see a slow housing market with little sigh of relief in prospect; prices continue to slip albeit relatively modestly compared to the substantial rise during the pandemic.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     In the auto space, The UAW late Wednesday outlined plans for a series of strikes targeting individual, undisclosed U.S. auto plants if agreements are not reached by 11:59 p.m. EDT on Thursday, rather than a full walkout. UAW President Fain said the Detroit Three (GM, F, STLA) had offered 146,000 U.S. auto workers pay raises of as much as 20% over 4-1/2 years, but he blasted the proposal as inadequate even as automakers protested the union had yet to formally respond to their latest more generous offers. The union is asking for 40% raises and major improvements in benefits.

·     AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) successfully completes at-the-market equity offering, raising more than $325 million; sold 40M shares at about $8.14.

·     Starbucks (SBUX) said former CEO Howard Schultz would step down from the company’s board; Schultz stepped down as CEO in March after he took the reins at the company for the third time.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital Markets citing the stock’s continued pullback following its analyst day makes for a particularly attractive entry point.

·     Rio Tinto (RIO) was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan and tgt raised to A$131 from A$116, named New Top Pick saying iron ore prices are supported by strong Chinese steel production.

·     Ivanhoe Electric (IE) 11.852M share Spot Secondary priced at $13.50.

·     SilverBow Resources (SBOW) 4M share Secondary priced at $37.00.

·     Vital Energy (VTLE) said it signed three agreements for Permian Basin assets with a total transaction consideration of about $1.17B.

 

Financials

·     Robinhood Markets (HOOD) said monthly active users decreased to 10.6 mln in August, down about 400 thousand from July 2023; net cumulative funded accounts at end of August were 23.2 mln, up about 30 thousand from July 2023. August assets under custody $89.7B, down 5%.

·     W. R. Berkley (WRB) declares a special dividend of 50c per share.

 

Healthcare

·     Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) said that it received a positive review from FDA Advisory Committee (AdCom) regarding its supplemental new drug application to treat heart disease through its Onpattro drug (vote was 9-3 in favor). The FDA has set an action date of Oct. 8.

·     Harpoon Therapeutics (HARP) provides an update on the HPN217 development and option agreement saying AbbVie (ABBV) notified the company it will not exercise exclusive license option of parties’ development, option agreement for harpoon’s program.

·     Joint Corp. (JYNT) Q2 EPS ($0.01) vs est. $0.01 on revs $29.3Mm vs est. $30.22Mm, adj EBITDA $3.2Mm vs est. $2.97Mm; sees FY revs $115-118Mm, below prior view $123-$128Mm and vs est. $123.94Mm and adj EBITDA $11.0-12.5Mm vs est. $12.97Mm.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Arm (ARM) 95.5M share IPO priced at $51.00, the high end of the $47-$51 price range.

·     Semtech (SMTC) Q2 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.02 on revs $238.4Mm vs est. $237.42Mm, adj gr mgn 49.6%, adj op mgn 13.6%; sees Q3 net sales $190-210Mm vs est. $247.68Mm, adj gr mgn 47-49%, adj SG&A $36-38Mm, adj R&D $45-47Mm, adj EPS ($0.22) to ($0.09) vs est. $0.11.

·     IBEX Ltd. (IBEX) Q4 adj EPS $0.33 vs est. $0.49 on revs $124.4Mm vs est. $125.82Mm, adj EBITDA $15.4Mm vs est. $21.35Mm; sees Q1 revs $122-125Mm vs est. $133.64Mm and FY revs $525-535Mm vs est. $554.74Mm.