Closing Recap

Monday, September 22, 2025

Stocks rallied Monday as the trading week picked up where it ended Friday, with record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq while the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrials edged higher as sentiment on Wall Street remains overly bullish with zero signs of cooling to this point. In addition to the massive “AI” euphoria in stock markets and hopes for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, JP Morgan noted today that “S&P 500 companies are announcing buybacks at a record pace this year!! Resilient earnings, strong credit markets & solid cash flow are fueling the surge…though notes a weaker labor market could slow the trend”. Several positive factors have led to a more than 30% surge off April lows (Liberation day tariff pullback) that no market pullbacks have occurred for 6 straight months, even heading into a seasonally weaker period of the year. There were no dips today as the S&P (SPX) neared 6,700.

After subtle gains this morning, it was yet another mega cap tech AI related headline that boosted major averages to new high, a recurring theme over the last month or so. OpenAI and Nvidia announced a letter of intent for a landmark strategic partnership to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure to train and run its next generation of models on the path to deploying superintelligence. To support this deployment including data center and power capacity, Nvidia intends to invest up to $100B in OpenAI as the new Nvidia systems are deployed (so NVDA making $100B investment to OpenAI…so OpenAI can buy their chip?). Yet still, markets and tech stocks/power stocks rallied again on these headlines.

There were several Fed speakers all day (Hammack, Miran, others) but had no impact in markets as it was tech strength doing more heavy lifting for markets today. Brian Sullivan of CNBC noted the OpenAI and Nvidia talking about a 10-gigawatt deal. He said, “For the power context that’s: 2 1/2 new nuclear power plants worth of power, or about 15 giant new natural gas plants, or 2,700 wind turbines. Super bullish for power demand.” Another reason is power/nuclear names continue to see bullish flow momentum as well. The power/nuclear/uranium names have been massive leaders again this year so far in addition to chip stocks, tech, etc. A few notable weak spots in the S&P today were crypto names, homebuilders as yields edge higher and defensive consumer staples.

• U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Monday, hovering around Friday’s levels, as the market appeared to have settled down following the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut last week since December 2024. Yields rose last week despite the central bank’s decision to make a 25 basis-point (bp) rate cut and signal more easing at future meetings. The climb was reinforced following stronger-than-expected U.S. unemployment data and generally upbeat mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note was flat at 4.141% from Friday’s close, after hitting a two-week high of 4.145%.
• Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto currencies fell sharply on Monday as investors unwound bullish bets following last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut. Bitcoin prices -2.5% at $112,500 and Ethereum -7% at $4,160 as Crypto-linked stocks fell after more than $1.5 billion in bullish positions were liquidated Monday, which sparked a sharp selloff, particularly affecting smaller tokens. https://tinyurl.com/mr2h4apf. Bitcoin has been largely trading in a range of $110,100 and $120,000 since early July, with subdued volatility. During that period, Ether and Solana grabbed the spotlight among crypto traders.

• In Footwear Retail: Piper with two changes as they downgraded CROX to Neutral and cut tgt to $75 from $95 saying given strategic changes at both brands (pullback on discounting at CROCS and on performance marketing at HEYDUDE) and uncertainty around demand elasticity, demand headwinds in the US could be longer lasting and is below the Street on sales for ’26 and see risk to guidance for Q425. Piper upgraded SHOO to Overweight (tgt to $40 from $25) as views a $4+ in earnings power as realistic.
• Consumer Staples (XLP) sector remains weak while investors continue to rotate more money into riskier asset classes like Communications, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary. Shares of CHD, CL, DEO, K, MKC, NOMD, TAP, TGT were among consumer staple names hitting 52-week lows today (XLP one of only 2 S&P sectors in the red YTD, -0.65% with Healthcare XLV the other -0.35% YTD)

• In Oil Equipment: HP was upgraded to Overweight at Barclays (raise tgt to $25 from $17) saying it likes the #1 land driller in the L48 with 141 active rigs, and despite a very challenging 2025 which has seen shares decline 36% YTD, believes the worst is now behind the company in both Saudi and US onshore markets.
• In Transports: The Baltic Dry Index edged lower, losing 31 points to 2,172 as the Capesize index snapped a 6-day win streak, falling -72 points to 3,365 points; the Panamax index fell 23 points, or 2.6% to 1,822 points (lowest since 9.5) and Supramax index was dipped -3 points to 1,486 points. WAB shares jumped following Kazakhstan National Railway order valued at $4.2B.
• In Homebuilders: LEN shares down again after falling -4.18% on Friday following earnings in homebuilders; sector generally weak with KBH, TOL, PHM weaker as Treasury yields have actually climbed since the Fed cut by 25bps (10-yr at 4.138% after lows below 3.99% initially after cut).

• In Real Estate Services: Compass (COMP) announces combination with Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS) in all-stock transaction as combined company is expected to have an enterprise value of approximately $10B (including assumption of debt); HOUS shareholders o receive $13.01 per Anywhere common stock, bring together approximately 340,000 real estate professionals globally https://tinyurl.com/34yjb25a ; BETR shares jumped after EJ Capital named as position in shares.
• In Insurance: Raymond James upgraded ORI to Outperform and downgraded EG and EVER to Outperform saying and raises Q325 EPS estimates for 12 commercial and personal lines carriers, reflecting 20%+ below-average severe convective storm activity in July and August, and no major hurricane landfalls QTD. Favorite stocks for each cohort for the remainder of 2025 and heading into 2026 include ALL, MCY, TRV, and WTW and continue to like out-of-consensus calls on CB, MMC, and PGR

• MBX announces once-weekly canvuparatide achieved primary endpoint in phase 2 trial with 63% responder rate at 12 weeks; 79% responder rate at 6 months in open-label extension; STAT News notes the hormone replacement shows efficacy but were less impressive when compared to an approved treatment by ASND.
• IONS announced that a study of zilganersen in children and adults with Alexander disease, a rare, progressive and often fatal neurological condition with no approved disease-modifying treatments met its primary endpoint.
• RGEN was upgraded to Outperform at Evercore saying its valuation framework is reasonable / defensible vs history and is raising its PT to $155 (~25% upside).
• RHHBY Roche advanced one of its experimental obesity drugs into a late-stage trial; decision to begin a phase III trial of its experimental obesity drug CT-388 marks a major step in its push to break into the fast-growing obesity drug market; Roche acquired this drug candidate in late 2023 when it acquired U.S. biotech firm Carmot Therapeutics.
• SRPT was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital saying they appreciate the credible concerns around a potential ambulatory patient death that could compromise Elevidys’ viability but believes the stock’s current valuation skews the risk/reward to the upside.
• In Obesity sector: MTSR shares surged after being acquired by PFE in a transaction valued at $47.50 per Metsera share in cash upon closing, for an initial enterprise value of $4.9B with a CVR of up to $22.50 per share in additional payments, adding to its Next-Generation Obesity Portfolio.
• In Medical Supply & Distribution: PINC shares jumped after announces definitive agreement to be acquired by Patient Square Capital in transaction valued at $2.6B as Premier stockholders will receive $28.25 in cash per share. TEM shares rose after receives FDA 510(K) clearance for Tempus xR IVD, RNA NGS in Vitro Diagnostic Device/ XR IVD will be offered as life sciences tool to support drug development programs.
• In Healthcare Products: KVUE shares fell as Trump administration officials plan to link the active ingredient in Tylenol to autism Monday, the Washington Post reported, this weekend.

• In AI Cloud: IREN announced it has doubled its AI Cloud capacity to 23k GPUs following the procurement of an additional 12.4k GPUs and is now targeting more than $500M in AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) by Q1 2026. To meet rising demand, IREN has purchased 7.1k Nvidia B300s, 4.2k Nvidia B200s and 1.1k AMD MI350Xs for approximately $674M.
• In Hardware: Jefferies out with update on AAPL iPhone 17 demand saying lead times suggest demand is stronger vs. last year, though the US (33% of global unit volume) is still showing signs of weakness. While they believe the 17’s Sept Q volume will grow 55% Y/Y vs. the 16, and forecast 5% growth in the Dec Q, they see downside risk to ASP in Sept/Dec due to product mix, with weakness in the 17 Air and Pro.
• In Software: Shares of PRO jumped after entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thoma Bravo in an all-cash transaction valuing PROS at approximately $1.4B. Under the terms of the agreement, Pros shareholders will receive $23.25 per share in cash, representing a premium of approximately 41.7% over Pros’ closing share price on September 19.
• In Indian IT stocks Cognizant (CTSH), Wipro (WT) and Infosys (INFY) shares extending declines earlier (before rebounding) on concern that US President Trump’s hefty fee for new H-1B visas, by mandating a $100,000 fee for new applications, may disrupt projects of Indian outsources.
• In Quantum compute stocks: after a massive surge last week in the sector, shares of QUBT slumped after saying it plans to issue nearly 26.9 million shares to several large existing shareholders, in addition to a first-time investment from a global alternative asset manager. The offering is expected to close on Sept. 24, bringing the company’s total cash position to $850 million. CNBC noted IONQ management would be on Cramer’s Mad Money program this evening.

• In Semiconductor Equipment: Morgan Stanley with several changes as they upgraded AMAT to Overweight from Equal Weight (tgt to $209 from $172) and revised up its 2026 wafer fab equipment sales forecast from 5% year-over-year to up 10%. Also, KLAC was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight (tgt to $1,093 from $928) saying at a 30% valuation premium vs AMAT/LAM, MSCO finds relative outperformance hard to call. Lastly, LRCX was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight (tgt to $125 from $92) saying memory end markets have turned for the better and the firm was wrong here. Also, ASML was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of EUR 950, up from EUR 600 as believes the shares are pricing in little sales contribution from Intel and Samsung following negative estimate revisions. TER shares outperformed after Susquehanna earlier noted recent checks in Taiwan with key players in the AI compute supply chain indicate TER is gaining meaningful traction at TSM, particularly for GPU "wafer sort testing" (the firm raised its price tgt to $200 from $133).