Early Look

Thursday, September 25, 2025

U.S. stock markets come into the trading day riding a modest 2-day losing streak, pulling back from record highs as we approach month end. Major averages are on track for a 5th straight month of gains, even during a historically weak period for the market, though note the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq have dipped in October the last 2-years. The last two days saw a pullback in momentum tech/AI drivers on modest profit taking (after a massive 6-month run), but other factors could be at work such as the U.S. government being six days from its 15th partial shutdown since 1981, and both chambers are out all this week with the Senate not due to return to Washington until September 29, so that remains a concern. Mixed messages from the Fed could also be playing a part of GDP data today and PCE inflation data tomorrow following last week’s FOMC 25bps rate cut. Treasurys sold off in afternoon trade, pushing yields higher, in a day lacking market-moving developments. U.S. activity and labor data are on tap for today and likely to have more on an impact on policy outlook and yields. August durable goods orders are expected to contract less than in July. Weekly jobless claims are forecast to tick higher, while the third 2Q GDP estimate is seen unchanged at 3.3% annualized rate. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 124 points to 45,754, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 3,853, and the Hang Seng Index slid -33 points to 26,484. In Europe, the German DAX is down -145 points to 23,520, while the FTSE 100 is down -23 points to 9,226. Bitcoin is -1.5% at $111,900 while Ethereum slips -3% to $4,040 after falling below $4K for first time since August 8^th. Oil prices are edging lower after posting their biggest one-day rise since July on Wednesday.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -171.50 points, or 0.37%, to 46,121.28
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -75.62 points, or 0.34%, to 22,497.86
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -22.53 points, or 0.92%, to 2,434.98

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.935M
• 8:30 AM ET U.S. GDP Final Q2…est. +3.3%
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2-final…est. +2.0%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Q2-final…est. +2.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE prices Q2-final…est. +2.5%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Orders M/m for August…est. (-0.5%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Orders – ex transportation M/M for August…est. 0.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Advance Good Trade Balance for August…est. (-$95.2B)
• 10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for August…est. 3.96M
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for September
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: BB CNXC COST LPTH

• Jefferies inaugural AI Summit (virtual), 9/22-9/25
• Oppenheimer Insurance Summit, 9.25 (virtual)
• Roth Capital 3rd Annual AI Summit, 9/22-9/25 (virtual)

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +2.5 vs -0.7 last week. Bulls stay the same, still at 41.7%, Neutrals rise to 19.1% from 16%, Bears fall to 39.2% from 42.4%.

• BYD Co (BYDDF) sold 3x as many new cars in the EU last month than in August 2024, surpassing U.S. rival Tesla (TSLA) for the second consecutive month, data from European auto lobby ACEA showed. Tesla’s EU sales dropped 36.6%, squeezing its market share to 1.2% from 2% a year ago, while BYD’s sales were up 201.3% to give it 1.3% market share. Stellations (STLA) sales were up 2.2%.
• KB Homes (KBH) Q3 EPS $1.61 vs est. $1.50, homebuilding op Inc $131.163Mm on revs $1.62B vs est. $1.588B, housing adj gr mgn 18.9%; guides FY housing revs $6.1-6.2B vs est. $6.278B, av selling price approx $483,000, home building op mgn 8.9%, housing gr mgn 19.2-19.3%; cuts FY25 housing revenue view to $6.1B-$6.3B from $6.3B-$6.5B
• Steelcase (SCS) Q2 adj EPS $0.45 vs est. $0.36, adj EBIT $75.3Mm vs est. $66.5Mm on revs $897.1Mm vs est. $873.7Mm, gr mgn 34.4%.
• StitchFix (SFIX) Q4 adj EBITDA $8.7Mm vs est. $6.46Mm on revs $311.2Mm vs est. $309.3Mm; sees Q1 revs $333-338Mm vs est. $305.84Mm and FY revs $1.28-1.33B vs est. $1.234B.

• Nippon Steel Corp. said Thursday it will invest $300M in two plants run by the recently acquired United States Steel Corp., setting up a new recycling facility and expanding production via the introduction of new product lines in the key U.S. market.
• Transocean Ltd. (RIG) announced that it intends to offer and sell 100M Transocean shares in an underwritten public offering.
• Worthington Steel (WS) Q1 adj EPS $0.77 vs est. $0.76, adj EBIT $54.9Mm vs est. $52.4Mm on revs rose 5% y/y to $872.9Mm vs est. $834.6Mm; Q1 Gross margin increased by $14.8M y/y to $115.2M driven primarily by higher direct spreads and higher direct volumes, partially offset by lower toll margins.

• Citigroup (C) announced deal to sell 25% stake in Grupo Financiero Banamex to Mexican billionaire Fernando Chico Pardo for $2.3 billion, marking another step toward its plan to take the unit public.
• Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) and 1st Colonial Bancorp (FCOB) jointly announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement pursuant to which Mid Penn will acquire 1st Colonial in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $101M.
• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) shares rise overnight after late Wednesday Jane Street disclosed a 5.9% stake in the company. The stake would make Jane Street OPEN’s third biggest stockholder, after CEO Kaz Nejatian and investment giant Vanguard.
• Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) assets under management $270 bln, up 12% y/y; client assets under administration reach $1.69 trillion, in August, up 10% y/y.

• Immuneering Corporation (IMRX) said it announces extraordinary 86% overall survival (OS) observed at 9 months in first-line pancreatic cancer patients treated with Atebimetinib + mGnP vs. standard of care benchmark is 47%; 53% progression-free survival (PFS) observed at 9 months vs. standard of care benchmark is 29%; expects regulatory feedback on pivotal trial plans in Q4 and, expects to initiate pivotal trial by the end of 2025 and begin dosing patients by mid-2026; announced public common stock offering.
• Guardant Health (GH) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research.
• KalVista (KALV) announces $110M convertible senior notes offering
• uniQure (QURE) announces $200M proposed public offering.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink.

• Intel (INTC) has approached Apple (AAPL) about an investment in the chipmaker as part of efforts to turn around a business that’s now partially owned by the U.S. government, Bloomberg reported late Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The two companies have also discussed how to work more closely together but have been early stage and may not result in a deal. https://tinyurl.com/3dj8zwah
• HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBC) said it’s achieved a world-first breakthrough in deploying quantum computing in financial markets. HSBC said that it used International Business Machines (IBM) most-advanced Heron quantum processor to attain a 34% improvement in predicting how likely a bond will trade at a given price.
• SAP (SAP) is the subject of a European Union antitrust probe into whether the company distorted competition for maintenance and support services related to a management program it sells – Bloomberg.