Closing Recap

Thursday, October 02, 2025

There wasn’t much to move markets on a macro basis with economic data delayed amid day 2 of the U.S. gov’t shutdown, earnings season coming up around the corner, and no Fed speakers to note…but that didn’t stop investors from adding to its recent rally, hitting new highs for major averages in another quiet “melt up afternoon.” There remains no market concern which is translating into big stock market returns, particularly with strength in technology/semiconductors as the SOX index continues its remarkable ride. @KobeissiLetter noted “Nvidia stock, $NVDA, breaks above $190.00 and becomes the world’s first $4.6 trillion company. Nvidia has now added $2.5 TRILLION of market cap since its April 2025 low.” Today the Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose a 5^th straight day to highs above 6,630 (a massive surge off the April 7th low of 3,388 after tariff announcements) to another record high as investors are still chasing the momentum names in this market. Among today’s biggest movers today were those “momentum” type names including namely anything “AI” with chip stocks (NVDA, AVGO, AMD), power names (OKLO, LEU, SMR), data center/colling names (ETN, VRT, MOD, NVT) along with drone/space plays (ASTS, JOBY, RKLB), crypto/mining (COIN, HOOD, IREN) among others. Tomorrow would normally be the monthly nonfarm payroll data, but due to the ongoing government shutdown, the BLS will not be releasing monthly totals. It wasn’t just the U.S. market advancing as Europe saw massive gains overnight and what parts of Asia were open, advanced as well (Golden Week holiday started).

• In weekly sentiment data: This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index ticked a bit lower to 80.66 from last week’s 86.24 – recent hi of 98.15 from 8/21 – 2025 hi of 99.30 from 7/3 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q3) of 86.63. Separately, the bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +3.7 vs +2.5 last week. Bulls rise to 42.9%, from 41.7%, Neutrals drop to 17.9% from 19.1% and Bears stay the same at 39.2%. No real concern as markets push higher. In fact, the stat of the day goes to @ Mr_Derivatives who noted on “X” (which was affirmed by AI Grok), “based on my research from market data sources, after rising 5 straight days, the last time QQQ, SPY, DIA, and IWM all had 5 consecutive green days was January 3-10, 2019. No occurrences since then.

• RACE was upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Holdings and raise PT to EU470 from EU413 saying thinks Ferrari will deliver a promise of growth at their Oct 2025 CMD: Early next week it expects Ferrari management to lay out their plans to 2030.
• RIVN reported Q3 deliveries 13,201 units vs estimate 12,690 units and said produced 10,720 units in Q3 while they narrowed their 2025 delivery outlook range to 41,500-43,500 vs estimate 42,420 units.
• STLA reported late Wednesday its first quarterly growth in the U.S. this year, with new car sales up 6% in the period saying its Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and FIAT brands all saw sales growth.

• In Food sector: Berenberg downgraded shares of MDLZ to Hold from Buy (PT to $70 from $81) and Barry Callebaut (BRRLY) to Hold from Buy as well in food manufacturing sector saying they expect cocoa prices to decline in 2026 relative to 2025, albeit not to the level reflected in existing forward curve estimates. They do not think there is clear near-term upside to earnings expectations across our cocoa coverage.
• Online travel names EXPE, BKNG, ABNB, others saw weakness as BKNG fell for a 5^th day in a row, among names impacted by gov’t shutdown/impact of tourism/travel. Also, UBS said earlier today that OpenAI could launch a competitor to BKNG, EXPE.

• Utility/Power: WMB said it will invest $3.1B in power projects and projects expected to complete in first half of 2027. EIX was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jefferies saying they do not see shares as offering compelling risk/reward with higher percentage wildfire risk than peer PCG, a slower growth profile, and Eaton Fire liability exposure.
• In Solar/Alternative Energy: RUN shares rallied after a report in The Information said Sunrun and Tesla residential batteries could help power data centers https://tinyurl.com/3wmh5754 ; ARRY was downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight at Barclay’s revisiting the fundamentals after the macro and potential changes to IRA drove much of the stock price performance but on a go-forward basis, thinks company execution will be more of a focus; SHLS upgraded to Overweight at Barclays given the growth opportunities presented by the BESS and data center demand. BE was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho (raise tgt to $79 from $48) following run-up in shares owing to improved visibility for Bloom Energy’s demand growth with utility-scale orders for data centers.

• In Banks, Brokers & Exchanges: Commercial Bancgroup (CBK) sold 7.2M shares at $24 apiece in an upsized IPO for $172.2M (had initially marketed ~3.7 million shares between $25.75-$27.75 apiece). IBKR September monthly data metrics include: 1) 73k monthly net new accounts, +26% YoY 2) Cleared DARTs up 41% YoY 3) margin loan balances up 8% MoM. Following a 6% increase in August and 4) 6% higher client equity MoM; CME said it will begin around-the-clock (24/7) trading for crypto futures and options in early 2026, pending regulatory approval.
• In Crypto: Cryptocurrency prices extended their rally as the U.S. government entered day two of its shutdown. Bitcoin surged to its highest level since mid-August at $120K (up 7% this week – not far from its $124,500 record on 8/13) while names like BKKT (a bitcoin and crypto infrastructure provider) rose another 30% to 150% this week. Ethereum traded around $4,450, pushing its gain on the week to more than 10% while crypto exchanges COIN, BLSH as well as stablecoin issuer CRCL all gained. Citigroup raised its forecasts, citing strong ETF flows and institutional demand as see Bitcoin at $132K by year-end, $181K in 12 months and Ethereum $4.5K by year-end, $5.4K in 12 months. The bank favors Bitcoin as “digital gold,” noting its size and inflows, while Ethereum’s outlook is less certain.
• In Real Estate: RKT’s Redfin reports the typical home that sold in August went for nearly 4% under its asking price–the steepest discount for that month since 2019. One of every six (16.7%) U.S. home sellers dropped their asking price in August, up from 15.9% a year earlier and the highest share for that month in records dating back to 2012. Manhattan home sales jumped to the highest level in more than two years as affluent buyers armed with cash forged ahead on deals. There were 3,158 completed condo and co-op sales in 3Q, up 13% y/y, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman. The median price of those deals was $1.18m, a 5.8% increase.

• ABSI was initiated at overweight at JP Morgan, saying the biotech company’s unique expertise in the computational space could change how new therapeutics are found.
• BOLT shares slip after saying it is modifying the design of its early-stage trial for cancer drug BDC-4182, and now expects to release initial data in Q3’26, while also cutting about 50% of its workforce to extend its cash runway into 2027
• SRPT shares jumped as much as 20% to the highest since the 6/17 and into the Gap from Monday 6/16 when the company announced another death due to acute liver failure in a second non-ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) patient treated with Elevidys.
• TSHA shares jumped after saying the U.S. FDA has granted "breakthrough therapy" designation to its experimental gene therapy, TSHA-102, for Rett syndrome, a rare genetic disorder
• In MedTech: ANGO shares rose after results and raised guidance; Q1 revs $75.7M vs. est. $72.69M; said ended Q1 with $38.8M in cash and cash equivalents, ahead of expectations, continues to expect to be cash flow positive for the full year FY26; raises FY26 adjusted EPS and revs outlook.
• In Medical Research: CRL was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclay’s (tgt to $195 from $165) citing stabilized drug discovery demand and valuation for the upgrade, while the firm downgraded MEDP to Underweight from Equal Weight mostly on valuation, as Barclays sees Medpace’s growth deceleration in the second half of 2026 as well as margin pressure.
• In Managed Care: HUM shares bounced after saying they are not satisfied with their 2026-star ratings, affirms FY 2025 EPS guidance of $13.77; said is executing on ma contract diversification strategy, starting with 2026 annual election period starting on Oct 15 and that it continues to anticipate return to top quartile results for 2027 MA star ratings.

• In Airlines: Goldman Sachs lowered estimates by ~5% into 3Q25 earnings as they mark-to-market on higher jet fuels costs and see a mixed outlook for demand ahead. Lean into high quality names exposed to the best performing end markets — premium/international — which have been outperforming all year despite a choppy demand backdrop (remain Buy rated DAL and UAL and sell on AAL).
• In Aerospace & Defense: drone maker ONDS shares jumped after placed its initial order of 500 Wasp drones from Rift Dynamics to launch U.S. defense market distribution through its American Robotics subsidiary; the rest of space, drone, air taxi names ACHR, ASTS, JOBY, LUNR, RDW, RKLB rallied.

• In Precious Metals: gold miners (NEM, AEM, GFI, AU, B) continue to push higher, tracking higher bullion prices after gold hit record highs the prior day and holding above $3,900 an ounce today as expectations of U.S. rate cuts and political uncertainty from a possible government shutdown boost demand

• In AI/Data Center: OpenAI also released a social app for sharing AI Videos and inked a deal with Samsung and Hynix to supply its ambitious Stargate datacenter project. OpenAI also completed a deal to help employees sell shares in the company at a $500 billion valuation. NBIS shares jumped after Bloomberg revealed more details on its previously announced deal with MSFT including access to >100,000 NVDA GB300 GPUs; includes using NBIS’ data centers to run large language models.
• In Hardware: AAPL has paused a planned overhaul of its Vision Pro headset to focus on developing smart glasses that can rival Meta’s products. China is curbing the use of European telecom kit suppliers NOK and ERIC in its networks, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter https://tinyurl.com/yte5wrrs
• In Media: WMG and Universal Music (UMGNF) are nearing landmark artificial intelligence licensing deals, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter saying the two could each strike deals with AI companies within weeks. Talks involved start-ups such as ElevenLabs, Stability AI, Suno, Udio and Klay Vision. https://tinyurl.com/3p8pwmd6 ; RBLX tgt raised to $160 at BMO Capital after analyzes the rise of UGC video game developers and the attractive economics they offer to incentivize Creators to build on their platform as the industry attempts to catch up to Roblox.
• Telecom & Tower stocks: RBC Capital downgraded AMT to Sector Perform from Outperform (tgt to $220 from $260) based on lower relative implied upside versus peers, adding that commentary from the big three tower companies through Q3 has been relatively muted as it related to carrier activity. The firm upgraded CCI to Outperform from Sector Perform, positive on the company’s tower-only focus and potential for cost extraction as well as buybacks. TMUS Reiterated Buy and $300 tgt at Deutsche Bank saying they believe T-Mobile will deliver attractive returns for shareholders over the next 12 months, driven by industry leading EBITDA and FCF growth.