Closing Recap

Monday, October 06, 2025

The party continued on Wall Street as the S&P 500 (SPX) posted its 7th straight day of gains in a broad market rally to kick off the week, highlighted by today’s OpenAI’s DevDay event boosting technology, while the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 also scored new record highs. The big news today, was in the AI/semiconductor sector, with AMD (+26% on day) signing a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure in a pact the chipmaker said could generate tens of billions of dollars in new revenue as OpenAI is taking up to a 10% stake in the company. OpenAI will deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, beginning with a 1-gigawatt rollout in 2026. Separately, the OpenAI’s DevDay event took place today with shares of Booking (BKNG), Canva, Coursera (COUR), Expedia (EXPE), Figma (FIG), Spotify (SPOT) and Zillow (ZG) among the app makers highlighted as partners at OpenAI’s DevDay event. Any name that was remotely mentioned at the event saw its stock price bounce in a sign of the times as investors chase first and ask questions later. For instance, Salesforce (CRM) shares rose on OpenAI’s codex Slack integration. There wasn’t much else today with no earnings, Fed speakers, or economic data to move the needle, just more buying momentum in the usual sectors with technology (XLK) leading +1.4% while defensive sectors Consumer Staples (XLP), REITs (XLRE) and Healthcare (XLV) slipping. The Russell 2000 Index also gained, reaching its third all-time high of the year, with no market concern as the U.S. government has now been shut down for six days. There were no dips in the stock market, literally the entire day as investors continue to chase the AI/Semi/crypto/nuclear/drone momentum. Even some more “caution” from well known investor Paul Tudor Jones, saying today on CNBC that today’s market is reminiscent of the setup leading up to the burst of the dot-com bubble in late 1999. The difference between now and 1999 is the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, Jones noted. He believes the bull market still has room to run before it reaches its final phase.”

• WTI Crude oil futures settle at $61.69 a barrel up $0.81 or 1.33% and Brent oil settles at $65.47/bbl, up $0.94 or 1.46% following an 8% slump for Brent last week. Oil prices rose after OPEC+’s planned production increase for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions, though a soft outlook for demand is likely to cap near-term gains. OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise oil production by 137K barrels per day starting in November, according to published reports this weekend.
• Bitcoin gained 2.6% to new record highs as well around 4126,000 late day, breaking its previous high of ~$124,480 in August. Crypto has been up six of the last seven days, fueled by strong inflows into bitcoin ETFs and renewed institutional interest.

• Ford (F) was upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies and raise tgt to $12 from $9 saying that with 43% of U.S. volume in full size pick-ups and SUVs, the loosening of current constraints on mix of higher CO2 mix models should enable Ford to offset tariffs and improve earnings next year.
• STLA is preparing to pour roughly $10 billion into its U.S. operations as new CEO Antonio Filosa refocuses on the company’s most profitable market, Bloomberg News reported Saturday.

• In Retailers: BBWI was downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan and lowering its Q3 EPS to $0.34 (20% below Street $0.42 & relative to management’s guidance of $0.37-0.45) and Q4 EPS to $2.03 (~10% below Street $2.23). ANF was also downgraded to Neutral from overweight at JP Morgan, lowering Q3 & Q4 revenue growth below consensus relative to management’s outlook (lowering its Q3 rev growth to +3.9% Y/Y vs. Street +6.2%) with its recent fieldwork pointing to below-plan Abercrombie revenues.
• In Food & Beverages SAM was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup and lower tgt to $235 from $255 as the company’s sales weakness persisted in the summer

• In Solar/Alt Energy: CWEN to acquire a 613 MW solar portfolio from Deriva Energy for $210–230M. Deal spans 8 states with a 10-year avg contract life, expected to add ~$27M in annual CAFD from 2027 and yield over 12%. Closing targeted by Q2 2026.

• In Crypto: more gains to start the new week after Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all gained over 9% last week as the US government shutdown after failure to get a new spending bill approved. Bitcoin new highs around $126,000, +2.6% and lifting Bitcoin miners all day HUT, IREN, RIOT among leaders As a result, BTC is sitting at all-time highs after topping its prior high this weekend. Cantor noted total stablecoins in circulation increased 1.8% w/w to $298.7bn. Weekly growth was driven by USDT, which increased $2.7bn w/w (+1.5%), USDC, which increased $1.6bn w/w (+2.1%), and USD, which increased $0.5bn w/w (+3.5%).
• In Investment Advisors/PE: ARES said that a fund managed by its Infrastructure Opportunities unit has acquired a 49% stake in a diversified U.S. renewable energy platform from EDP Renovaveis (EDPR), valuing the business at about $2.9 billion.
• In Financial Services/Employment; HSII said it agreed to sell itself for $1.3 billion to a consortium of investors led by Advent International and Corvex Private Equity as Heidrick shareholders will receive $59 a share in cash.
• In Payments: PYPL announced that U.S. customers will earn 5% cash back on PayPal Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) purchases between now and the end of the year; AFRM upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Redburn and raise its tgt to $101 from $74 as sees Affirm as the more compelling investment opportunity with the highest upside potential given its more established product proposition and merchant partnerships.
• In Exchanges/Brokers; MKTX reported 20% increase in total portfolio trading ADV to $1.4 billion, with record U.S. high-yield portfolio trading ADV of $341 million; Q3 estimated market share of U.S. credit portfolio trading was 19.1%, compared to 20.0% y/y, but up from 17.5% q/q. TW reported record total trading volume for the month of September 2025 of $63.7 trillion; average daily volume (ADV) for the month was a record $2.9tn, an increase of 10% y/y ; for Q3, total trading volume was a record $172.8tn and ADV was a record $2.6tn, an increase of 11.8% YoY (14.5% y/y)

• AMGN shares fell after launching direct-to-consumer U.S. sales of cholesterol drug Repatha at discount $239/mo cash price; says 98% of insured U.S. patients already get Repatha with co-pays as low as $15.
• AZN has signed a $555 million deal with a San Francisco-based biotech business Algen Biotechnologies, The Financial Times reported on Monday.
• LLY will invest over $1B in India 🇮🇳 to expand manufacturing through local partners, boosting supply of obesity, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, cancer and autoimmune drugs, Reuters reports.
• NTLA upgraded to Outperform from MP with $33 tgt at Citizens citing a stronger outlook for the company’s lead asset NTLA-2002.
• SKYE shares tumbled after saying its obesity drug candidate failed to help patients lose significant weight in a mid-stage study. The medicine, an antibody that blocks CB1 receptors, led patients to lose on average 1.5% of their weight over 26 weeks, but wasn’t statistically significant improvement vs placebo.
• SPRB shares surged after saying the FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) to tralesinidase alfa enzyme replacement therapy (TA-ERT) for the treatment of Sanfilippo Syndrome Type B. Shares surged 300% this morning on the news but later jumped as high as $150 (before pulling back) after @MartinShkreli tweeted on “X” he was, “long $SPRB. my price target is $500. rare disease is my specialty. the ERT for Sanfilippo will be approved (CMC notwithstanding) and be the new standard of care.”
• Qualtrics, owned by private equity firm Silver Lake, has agreed to buy healthcare market research company Press Ganey Forsta for $6.75 billion, including debt, the Financial Times reported on Monday

• In Industrials: Wells Fargo is tactically constructive on PH, JCI, ALLE, HUBB, MMM in Q3 preview, sees lack of positive surprises as relative performance overhangs for EMR, HON, and IR and downgraded EMR to Equal Weight from OW and LII to Underweight from EW saying the near-term lacks catalysts w/ downsized F25 exit rate growth, tough 1H26 margin comps, & relative valuation expansion that likely needs earnings revision help. LII relative valuation has seen more pressure than Wells anticipated. For Heavy duty truck makers, CMI, PCAR got a bounce after President Trump said all Medium and Heavy-Duty trucks coming into the United States from other countries will be tariffed at the rate of 25% starting 11/1.

• In Paper & Packaging: sector was weaker (IP, SW, WY, PKG) after Mondi (MONDY) warned of weak demand and falling prices across most pulp and paper grades and reported a quarterly decline in Q3 underlying EBITDA. In research, IP was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Seaport Global saying they sense the IP story is increasingly going to lean on 2027 (with less tailwind in 2026) and, from a strategic action perspective, becomes more dependent on Europe while also currently trades at nearly 8x EV/EBITDA on Seaport’s 2026 estimates. Meanwhile the firm upgraded SW from Neutral to Buy w/ $52 PT saying the weakness in the stock (it’s returned negative 20% YTD) suggests investors already share Seaport’s concerns and have seemingly more than adequately built it into valuation multiples, in its view.
• In Metals & Mining: New all-time high for gold prices approaching $4,000 an ounce; in miners, Barrick (B) it said it will sell its interests in the Tongon gold mine and certain of its exploration properties in Ivory Coast to the Atlantic Group for about $305 million.

• In Software, Media & Advertising: APP shares slipped over -10% late day after Bloomberg reported the company was being probed by the SEC over data collection of the mobile advertising tech company. CRTO and DASH announced a new multi-year partnership to scale advertising across DoorDash’s marketplace with grocery, convenience, and other non-restaurant retailers

• Jan 21, 2025, Stargate project launch Trump, OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, MGX announce $500B ‘Stargate’ AI Mar 2025 CoreWeave deal Initial partnership for AI cloud/infrastructure resources.
• May 2025 OpenAI for Countries initiative Partnerships with governments to build sovereign AI infrastructure.
• May / Jun 2025 Google Cloud partnership OpenAI partners with Google Cloud to diversify from Microsoft/Azure.
• Jun 2025 OpenAI for Government (U.S. DoD) Wins $200M DoD contract to prototype frontier AI in government.
• Jun 2025 Mattel collaboration Bringing conversational AI to toys like Barbie and Hot Wheels.
• And the Most Recent Announcements:
• Sep 22, 2025, NVIDIA + OpenAI LOI for 10GW of NVIDIA systems, up to $100B investment.
• Sep 24, 2025, SAP + OpenAI: ‘OpenAI for German Collaboration for sovereign AI in Germany’s public sector.
• Late Sep 2025 CRWV expansion Contract expanded by $6.5B, total ~$22.4B.
• Late Sep 2025 Stargate US data center expansion 5 new U.S. sites, pushing 7GW capacity, $400B+ investment.
• Oct: Samsung & SK partnerships Memory/chip supply and Stargate Korea AI data center.
• Oct: Etsy / Shopify ‘Instant Checkout’ ChatGPT adds instant checkout feature with Etsy and Shopify

• Foxconn reported record revenue for the month of September and for Q3, though the latter figure missed market expectations. The company said September revenue surged 38% M/M and 14.2% Y/Y to NT$837.07B ($27.54B), while Q3 revenue increased 14.5% Q/Q and 11% Y/Y to NT$2.06T. Foxconn is the world’s largest assembler of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhones.
• MBLY was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $19 price target as part of a Q3 earnings preview as believes Mobileye can beat its Q3 outlook and raised its full year guidance.
• MU was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $220 from $160 saying the chip maker will see multiple quarters of double-digit price increases, which can drive substantially higher earnings power.
• ON announced it has entered into an agreement with Aura Semiconductor to acquire rights to its Vcore power technologies and associated intellectual property licenses
• SANM shares surged on the AMD/OpenAI news as Bank America noted under this deal, OpenAI committed to purchase 6 gigawatts worth of AMD’s chips, staring with the MI450 chip next year. They view this announcement as overall positive for Sanmina, as it shows that AMD’s chips are gaining traction in the market. Sanmina is AMD’s “preferred” NPI partner and in this capacity will help AMD build, test and make their GPU racks production ready.
• SEMICON West is taking place this week in Phoenix, Arizona, from October 7th – 9^th. Cantor said they believe that this event will be an important litmus test as our positivity around WFE expectations is squarely on CY26 trends and not 2H25, where we see business trending roughly as discussed 3mos ago, with perhaps the exception of incrementally stronger China