Early Look

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

U.S. futures are looking little changed overnight following another day, and another record on Monday for the S&P 500 (7^th straight day of gains) its 32^nd of the year, the Nasdaq Composite and the Smallcap Russell 2000 as AI-related dealmaking between AMD/OpenAI boosted investor sentiment in the tech space, even as the U.S. government shutdown extended through its sixth day as lawmakers idled in a partisan impasse. The shutdown (now in Day 7) has postponed the release of key economic indicators, forcing investors to rely on secondary, non-government data. Crypto assets also surged as Bitcoin crossed above $126,000 today for the first time, its 18th $1,000 milestone of the year (slips to $124K this morning). While technology remains the S&P sector market leader (XLK +23.7% YTD), next week, third-quarter earnings will provide market catalysts as the reporting season gets underway with results from large U.S. banks. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index was little changed at 47,950, while the Shanghai Index and Hang Seng remained closed for holiday. In Europe, the German DAX is up 30 points to 24,408, the Cac-40 rises 14 points to 7,986, and while the FTSE 100 is little changed at 9,480.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -63.31 points, or 0.14%, to 46,694.97
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 161.16 points, or 0.71%, to 22,941.67
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 10.18 points, or 0.41% to 2,486.36

• 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for August
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 3:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for August
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: PENG SAR

• Citizens Global Gaming Expo, 10/6-10/8, in Las Vegas, NV
• SEMICon West, 10/7-10/8, in Arizona

• James Hardie (JHX) said it sees Q2 adjusted EPS $0.27-$0.27 vs. est. $0.15 and sales $1.29B-$1.3B above consensus $1.19B and Q2 adjusted EBITDA $326M-$331M.
• Lucid Group (LCID) announced production and delivery totals for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. During this period, Lucid produced 3,891 vehicles, with more than 1,000 additional vehicles built for Saudi Arabia for final assembly. Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles during the same period.
• McCormick (MKC) Q3 adj EPS $0.85 vs. est. $0.82; Q3 sales $1.724B vs. est. $1.713B; sees FY revenue growth 0%-2%; says FY25 outlook reflects mitigation plans related to tariffs currently in place and have increased since August 1; mitigating actions include sourcing plans supported by advanced analytics, cost savings actions, revenue growth management
• Homebuilder stocks DHI, KBH, MTH, TOL, TPH all downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI saying the sector rallied this summer in anticipation that falling mortgage rates would stimulate a rebound in housing demand and a bottoming in fundamentals, but a meaningful demand response has not yet emerged despite modestly improved affordability.

• Solaris Energy (SEI) files automatic mixed securities shelf.
• Trilogy Metals (TMQ) shares jumped over 150% this morning after reveals DOD funding of its “Bornite Project to advance domestic cobalt supply chain” https://tinyurl.com/mrxmuuu4

• ETHZilla (ETHZ) files to sell 187.62M shares of common stock for holders issuable upon the conversion of senior secured convertible notes issued to the investors of the additional debt financing.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is nearing a $2B investment in Polymarket, potentially valuing the prediction market at $8B-$10B, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. https://tinyurl.com/2ft7wxtw
• IREN Limited (IREN) said it has signed additional multi-year cloud services contracts with leading AI companies for NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell GPU deployments. IREN recently expanded its AI Cloud capacity and remains on track to achieve >$500m in annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) from the 23k GPUs currently operating and on order by the end of Q1 2026.
• Trump administration weighs selling parts of $1.6T federal student loan portfolio to the private market, Politico reported citing three people familiar with the matter. The discussions are said to have taken place among senior Department of Education and Treasury officials (watch shares of SLM, NNI, NAVI) https://tinyurl.com/mrxkxx9w

• Biomea Fusion (BMEA) said its experimental drug showed sustained blood sugar control in patients with type 2 diabetes and may benefit those not responding to GLP-1 therapies; also announces offering of common stock and warrants, no amount given.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) has laid off dozens of employees at the largest U.S. manufacturing site for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs, a Reuters review showed, a signal of where it is making cuts in a major restructuring under new CEO Mike Doustdar.
• Veeva (VEEV) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen.

• Amkor Technology (AMKR) breaks ground on new semiconductor advanced packaging and test campus in Arizona; expands investment to $7B.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) announced an agreement to acquire Monolith AI Limited, a pioneer in applying artificial intelligence and machine learning to solve complex physics and engineering challenges.
• Semtech Corporation (SMTC) announces proposed private offering of $350M of convertible senior notes due 2030.
• Elon Musk’s xAI is set to spend at least $18B to acquire roughly 300,000 more Nvidia (NVDA) chips for its Colossus 2 project in Memphis,