Closing Recap

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

U.S. stocks outperformed on Wednesday, extending the recovery off Tuesday lows as strong earnings from ASML in semis and MS, BAC in banks reignited risk appetite in a market that’s been whipsawed for days by shifting trade-war headlines fears between the US/China. Gold surpassed $4,200 for the first time and silver extended its winning streak, helped by the trade fears and a weaker dollar. The buck fell against all major peers on rising bets of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts following Powell comments Tuesday. Treasury yields slid again with the 10-year at 4% and the 2-year falling to lowest levels in 3-years. Lone piece of economic data today was Empire Manufacturing, which showed a jump from prior month and in new orders, while inflation also edged higher. Earnings tonight focus turns to transports with UAL in airlines and JBHT in truckers. There was a brief dip late morning into the afternoon, but by day’s end, the dip was bought and major averages finished solidly in the green with another record high for the Russell 2000 index.

Momentum plays continue to drive markets each day, mainly semis (NVDA, AVGO, AMD) and AI related plays such as data centers, water cooling, and nuclear related power names (OKLO, SMR, NNE, LEU). Outside of the AI derivate plays, drones/air taxis/space (ASTS, RKLB, JOBY, ACHR), bitcoin miners that have turned energy focus to AI vs. crypto (IREN, CIFR, WULF, CLSK) have surged; quantum names (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS), in a relentless push higher over the last month and up big YTD. The Mag 7 have taken a breather but have stayed steady keeping major averages strong; rare earth names have been big winners amid tensions with China exports, but MP, CRML, USAR fell today on profit taking. Add strength in banks the last few days after strong earnings from C, WFC and today, BAC, MS on better trading revs boosting financials. Precious metal stocks have surged as gold and silver make new record highs again in a straight move higher over the last few months (Gold +55% YTD and tops $4,200 an ounce while Bitcoin lags).

• US MBA mortgage applications fell 1.8% for the week ending Oct. 10, easing from -4.7% the prior week. US mortgage purchase index falls 2.7% to 166.0, mortgage refinance index falls 1.0% to 1,168.0 in Oct 10 week as the average 30-year mortgage rate falls 1 bp to 6.42% in Oct 10 week.
• China’s September inflation data largely met expectations, featuring another deflation episode with slight moderation in the declines of both headline and producer price indices. Headline CPI fell -0.3% from a year earlier, compared with -0.4% YoY in August, while PPI declined -2.3% YoY vs -2.9% previously.
• Fed Beige Book showed wages grew across all reporting; Fed Beige Book said overall economic activity was little changed; three districts saw modest growth, five were flat, and four reported slight softening.

• WTI crude oil Nov futures settle at $58.27 a barrel, falling -$0.43 or 0.73% while Brent Crude futures settle at $61.91/bbl, down -$0.48 or 0.77% leaving benchmark prices at lowest closing levels since May (Brent) and June (WTI). Crude oil prices weakened slightly by midday Wednesday, weighed down by demand uncertainty as the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China showed no signs of abating anytime soon.
• The 2-Year Treasury Yield drops to 3.48%, the lowest level in more than 3 years

• In Restaurants: PZZA shares rise overnight after reports Apollo Global (APO) submitted a fresh bid within the last week to take pizza chain private at $64 per share, according to people familiar with the matter. The situation is fluid and no deal is guaranteed, the sources said, requesting anonymity as the situation is private. Street Insider first reported the offer on Monday. https://tinyurl.com/3c486r8n  

• In Autos: BMW Group (BMWKY) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies noting BMW has dominated the PR debate around Neue Klasse, setting new technology standards for Legacy OEMs. The say they do not disagree but update on Software-Defined-Vehicles suggests that, far from lagging, MBG’s approach to SDV may have retained a relative edge, from higher IP to faster rollout across models/powertrain. STLA plans to invest $13B in U.S. auto manufacturing operations over the next four years saying investments will add more than 5,000 jobs to its domestic workforce and involve new products at plants in Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio through 2029.

• In Nuclear: another rally for the group early. On a side of caution, the WSJ reported power names (OKLO, NNE, FRMI, NKLR, etc.) mentioned cautiously in the WSJ saying forget about the froth in tech valuations, the real excess might be building up in energy stocks. A group of non-revenue-generating energy companies have collectively ballooned in value to more than $45 billion in hopes that tech companies will one day pay for their yet-to-be-built power. https://tinyurl.com/42fxsjjn . The group did get a bounce after the US Army announced a nuclear power initiative on Tuesday called the Janus Program, which it described as an effort to “deliver resilient, secure, and assured energy to support national defense installations and critical missions.” The program will build small nuclear reactors, which will be commercially owned and operated.
• In Energy/Oil & Gas: SOC shares tumbled after a California judge ruled against the company’s request to lift the state’s cease-and-desist order on repairs it had made to an onshore pipeline system linked to the Santa Ynez project. The tentative ruling marks a major setback for Sable.

• CFG reports Q3 adj EPS $0.89 vs. consensus $1.03; Q3 revs $2.11B vs. est. $2.1B; Q3 Credit Loss Provision $172M and Q4 NII up 2.5-3% from Q3; said is well-positioned for the medium-term.
• FHN reported 3Q EPS of $0.50 vs. est. $0.45 as PPNR beat Street due to higher NII/NM (12m benefit from MSLP), along with better fee income.
• HWC Q3 EPS $1.49 vs. consensus $1.43; Q3 credit loss allowance $-341.5Ml; Q3 CET capital ratio 14.08%; Q3 Net Income $127.5M and Q3 net interest income $282.3M; ROA was 1.46%, our efficiency ratio improved to 54.10%, and our NIM was stable at 3.49% despite a falling rate environment.
• MS reported Q3 EPS $2.80 vs. est. $2.10 while Q3 net revs $18.22B vs. est. $16.64B, Q3 FICC sales & trading revs $2.17B vs. est. $2.07B and Q3 equities sales & trading revs $4.12B, vs. est. $3.41B; Q3 wealth management net revs $8.23B, vs. est. $7.78B.
• PNC Q3 EPS $4.35 vs. consensus $4.04; Q3 revenue $5.92B vs. est. $5.81B; 3 tangible book value per share $107.84; Q3 CET1 capital ratio 10.6% and Q3 net charge-offs 0.22%.

• In Insurance: PGR shares tumbled early after EPS miss; net premiums written jumped 10% to $21.38B during the quarter ended September 30; combined ratio was 89.5%, compared with 89% a year ago; also records $950M policyholder credit expense in Q3 to refund Florida auto customers due to a state profit cap
• Monthly NCO/Delinquency data out: JPM credit card delinquency rate 0.85% at September end and credit card charge-off rate 1.68% in September; BAC credit card delinquency rate was 1.34% at September end and credit card charge-off rate was 2.44% in September; AXP 30 days past due loans as a % of total 1.4% at Sept end and USCS card member loans net write-off rate-principal only 1.9% at Sept end. Citigroup (C) credit card charge-offs 2.50 % in September
• In Education: APEI shares slipped after saying it is unable to determine full impact that U.S. government shutdown will have on its Q4 and FY 2025 operating results. Goldman Sachs upgraded TRI to Buy from Neutral saying thinks it’s well-positioned to benefit from AI and expect the recent launch of Westlaw Advantage and CoCounsel Legal to drive product upgrade cycles, accelerating pricing increases. Separately, downgraded KLC to Neutral amid as declining childcare center occupancy rates and decelerating revenue growth.

• ARVN was downgrade to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs saying the rapidly evolving competitive landscape for hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer puts the company’s vepdegestrant at increasing risk of obsolescence.
• LLY said its investigational oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug, orforglipron, met its primary and all key secondary endpoints in two recent phase 3 trials, delivering significant weight loss and improvements in multiple cardiovascular risk factors.
• NVO and OMER entered into a definitive asset purchase and license agreement for the candidate drug zaltenibart (formerly OMS906) in clinical development for rare blood and kidney disorders; under terms, NVO will be granted exclusive global rights to develop and commercialize zaltenibart in all indications as Omeros is eligible to receive $340M in upfront and near-term milestone payments, up to a total of $2.1B for milestone.
• In Healthcare Facilities/Services: BTSG will replace VBTX in the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, effective October 20^th; FMS was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to EU38 from EU50, citing limited visibility on when patient volumes will recover and margin risks in 2025-26 due to ACA subsidies expiring and a mix shift to value-based care. HIMS said it is now providing menopause care, marking the company’s latest push into hormone-replacement therapies.

• In Industrials: HI shares jumped after agreeing to be acquired by Lone Star Funds in an all-cash deal valued at $3.8B, with shareholders to receive $32 per share (confirmed an overnight report by Bloomberg); FTV was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan (tgt to $53 from $58) as part of a Q3 earnings preview for the electrical equipment/multi-industry sector as sees "subpar" growth and below-average return on invested capital. The firm also downgraded ROP to Underweight from Neutral (tgt to $541 from $577) as sees risk of disruption in Roper’s core software businesses justifies a lower than historical multiple.
• In Materials: in ag space, ADM and BG shares rose late yesterday after Trump said his administration was considering terminating some business with China connected with cooking oil and "other elements of trade; ASPI priced a 17.2M share secondary at $12.25, a 13% discount to prior close, raising $210.3M in gross proceeds.
• In Aerospace & Defense: ACHR agreed to buy Lilium’s 300-patent portfolio for €18M ($21M), expanding its IP base to 1,000+ assets. The deal adds key tech in battery systems, propulsion, and flight controls, strengthening Archer’s edge in eVTOL innovation as the sector consolidates. Defense names LMT, NOC, LHX declined after Treasury Secretary Bessent said at the CNBC Invest in America that the U.S. is considering asking defense companies to do less buybacks.

• In Telecom/Satellite: GSAT was initiated at Buy and $66 tgt at Clear Street saying it presents a compelling hybrid investment, combining a de-risked satellite business, significantly bolstered by AAPL’s funding, with a valuable and underutilized terrestrial wireless spectrum asset.

• Bitcoin miners/AI power: continues to see strength as Roth Capital noted the BlackRock (BLK) and MGX, via the $100B AI Infrastructure Partnership, are acquiring Aligned Data Centers from Macquarie for $40B, the largest DC deal ever. The firm believes this confirms that control of power and the demand for AI are continuing to gain steam. The deal goes to show that power is the asset, and those that own the power control the board. The firm believes the entire sector stands to benefit, but those with larger power portfolios and existing colocation agreements and data centers — such as APLD, WULF, CORZ, CIFR, GLXY likely stand to benefit most. Also said BTDR, IREN, RIOT, HUT, HIVE proving AI companies are seeking options to build data centers amongst a scarcity of power, land, and key supply components for hyperscalers, etc., to build data centers from greenfield sites.
• In Connectors/Equipment/Networking: APH was upgraded to Buy from Neutral (tgt to $150 from $120) saying AI is driving interconnect demand even higher and the firm sees upside to calendar year 2026 estimates on higher-than-expected AI rack volume, upside to calendar 2027 estimates on incremental content of new architectures. FFIV said a hacker breached systems including its engineering-knowledge management platform and its product-development environment for its BIG-IP suite of application-delivery products.
• In Hardware: AAPL unleashes the M5, the next big leap in AI performance for Apple Silicon; Apple Vision Pro upgraded with a powerful M5 chip and comfortable dual knit band. LOGI upgraded to Buy at Citigroup with $130 tgt saying peripheral demand should benefit given positive PC datapoints with checks suggesting constructive Videoconferencing equipment demand amidst return to office, and strong gaming peripherals demand

• INTC announced a new artificial intelligence chip for the data center that it plans to launch next year, in a renewed push to break into the AI chip market. The new chip (GPU) will be optimized for energy efficiency and support a wide range of uses such as running AI applications.
• NVDA was upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC with $320 tgt (from $200) citing rising FY27 GPU allocation and stronger visibility into CoWoS supply momentum. The report highlights upside to FY27 datacenter revenue estimates—now the Street’s highest—at $351B, roughly 36% above consensus, as AI GPU demand broadens beyond core hyperscalers.