Early Look

Thursday, October 16, 2025

U.S. futures move higher overnight, helped by technology stocks after TSM posts better results and guidance in the semiconductor space, following better results the day prior from ASML, as the tech trade keeps the AI investing chain alive. Trump reignited trade war rhetoric with China, stressing that tariffs are vital for national security and a key defense tool, but futures hold higher after another solid rebound on Wednesday. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 scored strong returns behind earnings in semis and banks (BAC, MS), while the Russell 2000 index posted its 2^nd record closing high in as many days, as investors shook off any trade/tariff concerns between the US/Beijing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted that Washington did not want to escalate a trade conflict with China and said President Donald Trump is ready to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 605 points to 48,277, the Shanghai Index edged higher 4 points to 3,916, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -22 points to 25,888. In Europe, the German DAX is up about 40 points to 24,221, while the FTSE 100 slips -10 points to 9,414. December gold surging another 1.25% or $52 to $4,253 an ounce – another record high and now up about 60% year-to-date.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -17.15 points, or 0.04%, to 46,253.31
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 148.38 points, or 0.66%, to 22,670.08
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 24.26 points, or 0.97% to 2,518.76

• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index doe October
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• ***Today was originally supposed to be Sept PPI data, Weekly jobless claims and Retail Sales – but being delayed due to the Federal shutdown going into day 16

• Earnings After the Close: CSX FNB GBCI IBKR OZK SFNC

• French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s government survived a second vote of no confidence in the National Assembly on Thursday. The motion, filed by the far-right National Rally, was backed by 144 members of parliament. 289 votes were needed for the motion to pass. An earlier no confidence motion filed by the hard left also failed.

• Fossil (FOSL) shares tumble after the company announced plans to extend the deadline to exchange its senior notes due 2026. The company has extended the deadline by a week to October 22.
• Nestlé SA (NSRGY) shares surged after the food maker posted a stronger-than-expected increase in quarterly sales and announced plans to slash 16,000 jobs, just weeks after replacing its CEO.
• Nio Inc. (NIO) shares slide after Chinese media outlet Caixin reported that Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, filed a lawsuit against NIO and its two executives.

• Matador (MTDR) raises quarterly dividend to 37.5c per share from 31.25c
• Maximus (MMS) announced it has been awarded a new $31M contract by the Massachusetts Health Connector, an independent public authority. Under the four-year base contract, Maximus will provide enrollment and premium billing services.
• Transocean Ltd. (RIG) quarterly Fleet Status showed: Deepwater Atlas Customer exercised a 365-day option in the U.S. Gulf at a day rate of $635,000. For Deepwater Mykonos, customer exercised a 30-day option in Brazil. The aggregate incremental backlog associated with these fixtures is approximately $243M. As of October 15, 2025, the company’s total backlog is approximately $6.7 billion.

• Banner (BANR) Q3 adj EPS $1.54 vs est. $1.40 on adj revs $168.7Mm vs est. $151.81Mm, NII $149.989Mm vs est. $151.05Mm, credit loss provision $2.67Mm.
• Bank of Montreal (BMO) said it will sell 138 U.S. branches to First Citizens Bank (FCNCA), transferring $5.7B in deposits and $1.1B in loans. BMO will take a $75M goodwill charge and plans to open 150 new branches over five years, focusing on higher-growth markets like California.
• Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Q3 EPS $1.06 vs. est. $1.10; Q3 net Income $141.518M vs. vs. est. $146.9M; Q3 revs $440.96M vs. EST $447.8M; Q3 net interest income $279.457M; and Q3 credit loss provision $20.061M.
• First Industrial Realty (FR) Q3 FFO $0.76 vs. est. $0.74; Q3 revs $181.43M vs. est. $182M; Q3 cash basis same store net operating income before termination fees increased 6.1% while Excluding the insurance claim recovery income, SS NOI increased 5.4%; raises 2025 FFO view to $2.94-$2.98 from $2.88-$2.96.
• Marsh & McLennan (MMC) Q3 adj EPS $1.85 vs. est. $1.79; Q3 revs $6.35B vs. est. $6.323B; Q3 operating expenses $5.181B and Q3 Operating Income $1.170B.
• Rexford Industrial (REXR) Q3 core FFO/SHR $0.60 vs est. $0.59 on revs $253.242Mm vs est. $250.83Mm; guides FY core FFO/SHR $2.39-2.41 vs est. $2.39.
• SL Green Realty (SLG) announced that it has entered into a contract to acquire Park Avenue Tower, located at 65 East 55th Street, for $730M; Q3 FFO $1.58 vs est. $1.50 on revs $244.8Mm; Manhattan same-store office occupancy 92.4%, expects to increase to 93.2% by end of year.
• Synovus (SNV) Q3 EPS $1.46 vs. est. $1.40; Q3 revs $615.39M vs. est. $598.4M; Q3 Net interest income grew $15.1M, or 3% q/q and $34M, or 8% y/y; Average loans increased 1% from the prior quarter, driven by growth in structured lending and commercial real estate lines of business.
• Zions Bancorporation National (ZION) says to take $60M provision, charge off $50M.

• Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) says may offer & sell common shares of up to $600M from time to time.
• Merck (MRK) announced that the Phase 3 KEYNOTE-B96 trial, also known as ENGOT-ov65, met its secondary endpoint of overall survival, or OS, for the treatment of patients with platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer in all comers.
• Merit Medical (MMSI) announced it has signed a definitive asset purchase agreement with Pentax of America, a subsidiary of Pentax Medical to acquire the C2 CryoBalloon device and related technology for $22M.

• JB Hunt (JBHT) shares surge on earnings after reporting Q3 EPS $1.76 vs est. $1.46 on revs $3.05B vs est. $302B; intermodal revs -2%, dedicated contract revs +2%, integrated capacity revs -1%, final mile revs -5%, truckload revs +10%.
• Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. (SEI) announced that Amanda Brock has been named Co-Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective October 16, 2025. She will serve alongside Bill Zartler, who will continue as Chairman and Co-CEO. Ms. Brock has also been appointed to the Solaris Board of Directors.
• United Airlines (UAL) Q3 adj EPS $2.78 vs est. $2.63 on revs $15.2B vs est. $15.329B, load factor 84.4%, capacity +7.2%, traffic +6.1%; guides Q4 adj EPS $3.00-3.50 vs est. $2.86, sees economy and demand improving in Q4.

• Salesforce (CRM) shares jump after announcing financial targets for the coming five years. Salesforce told investors at the company’s annual Dreamforce conference that it expects revenue of more than $60 billion in 2030. It also guided for an organic y/y revenue growth rate above 10% in 2026 through 2030. They also unveiled $7 billion share buyback program over next six months.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares slide after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for 2026 at its Analyst Day saying it expects FY26 adj EPS $2.20-$2.40 a share, with revenue growing between 5% and 10% which compared to estimates of $2.43 and revenue growth of 17%.
• CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) announced CoreWeave AI Object Storage, an industry-leading fully managed object storage service. CoreWeave AI Object Storage performance scales as AI workloads grow and maintain superior throughput across distributed GPU nodes from any region, on any cloud.
• Rumble (RUM) and Perplexity launch subscription bundle that include Rumble Premium and Perplexity Pro; users will get the bundle for $19.99 per month when they sign up before December 31, directly on Rumble.