Early Look

Friday, October 17, 2025

U.S. futures are looking lower, adding to the prior session weakness which was fueled by concerns about regional bank loan practices. S&P futures (Spuz) fall -1% around 6,600 but edging off lows of 6,571.25 (which was below last Friday low of 6,593.25) on this option expiration Friday. Credit issues in the regional banks (specifically noted by WAL, and ZION on Wednesday), not the big banks, caused some concern Thursday and that might be the reason it’s bleeding into everything else with regional banks down sharply across the board. Shares of ZION crashed -13% after it disclosed a $50 million charge-off for a loan underwritten by its subsidiary, while WAL said it’s dealing with a borrower that failed “to provide collateral loans in first position.” The regional bank ETF (KRE), which has been down for 4-straight weeks, declined more than 6% Thursday ahead of earnings from CMA, FITB, HBAN, RF and TFC today amid growing concern tied to recent bankruptcies in two auto industry related companies (First brands and Tricolor Holdings). While stocks slide, gold prices make another record high, rising +1.17% or $47 to $4,352 an ounce after topping $4,300 for the first time yesterday and up over 60% Year-to-date. Treasury yields fall further after hitting one-year lows yesterday with the 10-yr at 3.97% yesterday and the 2-yr yield at 3.42%. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) ends at 25.31, highest closing level since April 24 and rises this morning to 27.35. Bitcoin prices tumble further, down -3.5% approaching $104,000 to the downside. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbles -695 points to 47,582, the Shanghai Index slides -76 points to 3,839, and the Hang Seng Index declines -641 points or 2.48% to settle at 25,247. In Europe, the German DAX is tumbling over -500 points to 23,760, while the FTSE 100 slides -123 points to 9,312.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -301.07 points, or 0.65%, to 45,952.24
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -107.54 points, or 0.47%, to 22,562.54
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -52.74 points, or 2.09% to 2,467.02

• ***Reminder data may not be released due to the ongoing government shutdown

• Standard Lithium TBA (SLI) Spot Secondary priced at $4.35.
• SLB (SLB) reports Q3 adjusted EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.66; Q3 revs $8.93B vs. est. $8.92B.

• Bitfarms (BITF) upsizes convertible senior notes offering to $500M from $300M.
• CME Group (CME) intends to debut financial contracts tied to sports games and economic indicators by the end of the year The products would bring the company in competition with Kalshi and Polymarket according to Bloomberg https://tinyurl.com/255wh7xh
• Comerica (CMA) Q3 EPS $1.35 vs. est. $1.28; Q3 net interest income (NII) at $574M, while net interest margin (NIM) fell -7 bps to 3.09%; Q3 common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.90%. Says not conducting earnings conference call amid pending Fifth Third merger.
• Fifth Third (FITB) Q3 EPS $0.91 vs. est. $0.86; Q3 noninterest vs. est. $2.29B; Q3 net interest margin 3.13% vs. 2.90% last year; sees Q4 NII stable to up 1% vs. Q3; sees Q4 average loans & leases up 1% vs. Q3, with non-interest income up 2%-3% and non-interest expense up 2%.
• FNB Corp. (FNB) Q3 adj EPS $0.41 vs est. $0.37 on NII $359.272Mm vs est. $356.51Mm, credit loss provision $23.991Mm; Q3 Average deposits totaled $37.9 billion, an increase of $2.3 billion, or 6.4%, as the growth in average interest-bearing demand deposits of $2.1 billion.
• Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) Q3 EPS $0.57 vs est. $0.61 on NII $225Mm vs est. $224.22Mm, NIM 3.39%.
• Independent Bank Massachusetts (INDB) Q3 adj EPS $1.55 vs. est. $1.53; Q3 net interest income $203.344M and net interest margin rose 25bps q/q to 3.62%; decrease in Q3 net income was primarily driven by higher merger-related costs and the current period provision for credit losses associated with acquisition of Enterprise Bancorp; Q3 deposit balances of $20.3B rose 27.7% from Q2.
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 adj EPS $0.57 vs est. $0.54, NII $967Mm vs est. $882.33Mm, revs $1.655B vs est. $1.505B; Q3 commission revenue increased 23% to $537M on higher customer trading volumes; Q3 Net interest income increased 21% to $967M on stronger securities lending activity and higher average customer margin loans; Q3 Other fees and services decreased 8% to $66M.
• Regions Financial (RF) Q3 adj EPS $0.63 vs. est. $0.60; Q3 adj revs $1.94B vs. est. $1.93B driven by wealth and capital markets; Q3 net interest margin 3.59% vs. 3.54% last year; said achieved a record quarter in Wealth Management income, driven by elevated sales activity and favorable market conditions; said expects to maintain peer-leading ROATCE in 2025.
• Truist Financial (TFC) Q3 adj EPS $1.04 vs. est. $0.99; Q3 revs $5.24B vs. est. $5.22B; Q3 net interest margin (NIM) 3.01% vs. est. 3.04%; Q3 provision for credit losses $436M (vs. est. $484.9M); Q3 total average deposits $396.6B (vs. est. $400.09B).

• Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares slipped after President Trump said last night during a briefing on fertility treatments suggested the administration was negotiating much lower prices for their blockbuster obesity drugs.
• Lexeo Therapeutics (LXEO) 15.625M share Spot Secondary priced at $8.00.
• Praxis Precision (PRAX) 3M share Spot Secondary priced at $152.00.

• CSX Corp. (CSX) Q3 adj EPS $0.44 vs est. $0.42, adj op Inc $1.251B vs est. $1.24B on revs fell -1% y/y to $3.59B vs est. $3.576B; Q3 volume totaled 1.61M units, up 1% y/y and up 2% sequentially; said effects of lower export coal prices and a decline in merchandise volume were partially offset by increases in other revenue, higher pricing in merchandise, and intermodal volume growth.
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank and raise tgt to $18 from $6 saying the see an attractive set-up for the next three to six months, supported by clear commercial catalysts for what it calls a secular winner in the space exploration market.

• Newsmax (NMAX) announced its Board of Directors has authorized a strategic purchase plan of up to $5 million to purchase Bitcoin and Trump Coin over the next 12 months, subject to market conditions.
• Oracle (ORCL) shares fell -3% after rising 3% in the previous session. as Oracle discussed the outlook for the next five years and weighed in on cloud margins.