Closing Recap

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

U.S. stocks finished mixed in a very quiet, slow-moving day, with little to no market headlines throughout after a moderately busy morning of large cap earnings. Precious metals were in focus as spot gold fell over -6.3% at one point in its biggest one-day drop since April 2013 before paring losses, while money rotated into crypto, as Bitcoin bounced more than $5,000 of its morning lows sub $108K to above $114K before paring losses. Market leaders today were Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Communications, while Utilities, REITs and Consumer Staples lagged the most. Most markets dips on the day were bought with no notable pullbacks as investors await more earnings and economic data with CPI expected to be released on Friday.

Regarding trade talks, President Trump said midday, “I think we’re going to have a very successful meeting with China… but maybe it won’t happen.” The comments left details unclear. Later in the day, Harvested soybeans are not moving to export hubs, and instead going to storage, representatives for the two U.S. soy industry groups told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Des Moines, Iowa (note good for trade negotiations). Yesterday, Trump had reiterated that tariffs on Chinese goods could jump to 155% without a deal by Nov 1 but added that China had treated the US with “great respect” and that he remained confident of reaching a trade agreement. Trump confirmed he had been invited to visit China in early 2026.

A handful of large cap earnings were out this morning as Dow Jones Industrial Average components MMM and KO both jumped on results and guidance, GM hit near best levels ever after its results and guidance boosted the auto maker shares, oil service giant HAL jumped on its Q3 results and defense company earnings were mixed with NOC slipping and RTX rising on raised guidance. Tonight, earnings highlights include NFLX, TXN in tech, COF, CB, WAL in financials and MAT in consumer.

• Bitcoin bouncing today, hitting highs above $114,000 after early weakness – posting a more than a $6K bounce off earlier lows below $108K in a matter of hours in a possible rotation back into crypto as gold prices tumbled more than 6% at one point today before paring losses. However, Bitcoin prices also pared gains, ending the day around $111,200.
• Treasury prices advanced as yields slipped as the 10-year yield hit its lowest levels in over a year at 3.95% while the 2-yr yield fell 2 bps to 3.44% as investors still in the dark about economic data as the government shutdown is in Day 21, though CPI data is expected this Friday 10/24. Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, Fed officials are currently in a blackout period in which they are temporarily restricted from making public comments or speeches about monetary policy…but market is widely expecting another 25-bps rate cut at this meeting and at least another 25-bps in 2025.
• Oil prices edged higher with WTI crude rising $0.30 or 0.52% to settle at $57.82 per barrel while Brent crude gained $0.31 or 0.51% to settle at $61.32 per barrel.

• In Apparel/Footwear Retail: ADDYY reported Q3 revenue of Eu6.63B, up 12% currency-neutral for the core brand, driven by double-digit growth across all regions and categories; Q2 operating profit rose to €736M with margins improving to 11.1% from 9.3% y/y and raised full-year guidance, now expecting around 9% revenue growth and €2B in operating profit (NKE, UA, PUMSY moved in reaction). CPRI was upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James helping shares.
• In Broadline Retail: WMT unveiled its 2025 Thanksgiving meal basket priced at under $4 per person (down from $7 last year), the lowest since the retailer launched the program in 2022. The basket, which is meant for 10 people, includes more than 20 items, such as a Turkey, potatoes, stuffing mix, fried onions, pie crusts, and boxed macaroni and cheese. The bundle comes a week after the U.S. arm of German discount supermarket chain Aldi introduced a similar holiday offer.
• In Consumer Products: in tobacco, PM Q3 adj EPS $2.24 tops est. $2.11 on better revs $10.85B (vs. est $10.66B), slightly raised FY adj EPS view by $0.03 on bottom-line to $7.36-$7.46, but remains below the consensus $7.53 and still sees FY organic revs to +8%; CEO said smoke-free portfolio is "outgrowing the industry by a clear margin. In Beauty, L’Oreal (LRLCY) Q3 sales accelerated to +4.9% from +3.2% y/y in H1.

• In Homebuilders: PHM reported a dip in Q3 profit to 42/96 from $3.35 y/y but topped ests of $2.89 and revs fell -1.6% y/y to $4.4B but also topped ests of $4.31B and said profit drops as buyer incentives, aimed at offsetting high interest rates and inflation, squeezed margins on home sales.
• In Theme Parks/Leisure: shares of FUN spiked late day after the WSJ reported hedge fund Jana Partners, Travis Kelce, and other investors have a combined stake of about 9% of the theme-park operator’s shares, or $200M, Jana executives revealed Tuesday. Jana wants Six Flags to improve its marketing and the customer experience at its parks. It also sees opportunities to modernize technology, refresh leadership and evaluate a potential sale as ways to boost the company’s share price https://tinyurl.com/z8zc8kpm

• In Nuclear/Utility/Power: SMR shares fell after the WSJ reported that activist investment firm Starboard Value had acquired a nearly 5% stake in FLR and said it would push Fluor to realize value from a 40% stake it owns in fast-growing nuclear engineering firm NuScale Power (SMR). https://tinyurl.com/bddk9shm  (note Cantor said that Fluor continues to hold ~111M NuScale Class B units, a ~39% ownership of NuScale). Separately, SMR was downgraded to Sell at Citigroup and to Underperform at BNP Paribas.
• In Solar/Renewables/Alt Power: SPWR shares rocketed higher after better Q3 results posting adj operating income $3.12M vs. a (-$7M) loss last year and revs $70M above Q2 $67.5M and sees further rev growth in Q4; Citigroup upgraded shares of NXT and RUN to Buy, and downgraded CSIQ, SMR to Sell while update its estimates ahead of earnings. Citi said they prefer OKLO over SMR, FSLR over CSIQ, RUN over ENPH, NXT over ARRY, and SHLS (BESS exposure) over FLNC. Citi maintains its Sell rating on PLUG and caution investors that its recent stock performance appears to be fueled by an AI related rally in H2 companies – but does not see any direct benefits to PLUG from AI/datacenter-related spending.

• SFBS reported core EPS of $1.31 – just lower than consensus at $1.34 driven by weaker NII and higher expenses; an 8-loan relationship drove a ~$96M increase in NPAs (placed on nonaccrual) but management secured additional collateral noted Piper.
• WTFC posted Q325 operating EPS of $3.05, above consensus at $2.67; PPNR upside vs consensus of 5% or $0.15 p/s was driven by both stronger core fee income (+$0.09) and NII (+$0.01) as well as lower operating expenses (+$0.05); Credit metrics were solid with lower problem loan levels and in-line NCOs.
• ZION Q3 profit rose, helped by stronger interest income and despite taking a hefty loss on two loans as NII rose to $672M from $620M y/y.
• In Banking Research:
• GS was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan saying they have been positive on Global IBs for a while now, where they highlighted the strong wallet share growth potential for players with revenue scale to invest in the increasingly technology driven, execution focused IB businesses.
• INDB was upgraded to Outperform from MP at KNW following a quarter that beat expectations on better organic growth (core C&I +13% Q/Q annualized) and NIM, while posting meaningfully lower purchase accounting accretion and TBV dilution than expected.

• Bitcoin Miners: Citizens Bank raised price tgts on WULF to $18 from $13 and HUT to $65 from $25 saying they are increasingly confident that: 1) demand for traditional space and power has recently intensified; 2) demand for GPUaaS space has increased despite new entrants; 3) while new GPU deployments might improve GPUaaS revenue per MW, it continues to expect the ASP/MW will decline over time; 4) debt issuance from former Bitcoin miners will take time to achieve investment grade status.

• In FinTech: PYPL is taking over a stake in German digital commerce company Shopware AG from a Carlyle Group Inc. fund, Bloomberg reported according to people with knowledge of the matter, saying PayPal’s stake in Shopware will increase to about 41% from roughly 11% with the deal.

• ALNY shares fell, snapping their 8-day winning streak (pulling off all-time highs).
• GLPG shares fell after saying they would wind down its cell-therapy operations, putting paid to plans to sell the business off after no viable offers were made.
• HOTH said its experimental drug HT-KIT has received "orphan drug" tag from the U.S. FDA for the treatment of systemic mastocytosis and gastrointestinal stromal tumors.
• NERV shares surged after saying it will receive up to $200M in gross proceeds through a private placement to fund a late-stage trial and resubmission of its experimental schizophrenia drug, roluperidone, to U.S. FDA (includes $80M upfront and up to $80M more tied to full exercise of warrants).
• NVO said it will replace its chairman and other board members after the Danish pharma giant and its controlling shareholder failed to agree on how the board should be composed.
• VKTX initiates exploratory maintenance dosing study of VK2735, the company’s dual agonist of the glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptors.

• In Managed Care: ELV posted better Q3 results as Q3 adj EPS $6.03 vs est. $4.94; Q3 revs rose 12% y/y to $50.1B vs. est. $49.5B; backs FY25 adj EPS view of ~$30.00, vs. est. $29.89; Q3 benefit expense ratio 91.3% – but shares fell on margin and cost commentary; UNH is testing a new system to streamline how medical claims are processed, an early example of what the company says is the potential for AI to smooth out friction in billing, Bloomberg reported.
• In MedTech: HOLX confirmed a Bloomberg report over the weekend as it will be acquired by Blackstone Group and TPG for $79 per share in $18.3B deal. The agreement includes a 45-day "go-shop" period during which Hologic and its advisors may solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals from third parties

• BA said it had received orders for nine CH-47F Block II Chinook helicopters from the U.S. Army via two contract awards worth $461 million. The order increases the number of CH-47F Block II aircraft under contract to 18, Boeing said.
• GE Q3 adj EPS $1.66 vs. est. $1.47 and revs $12.2B vs. est. $10.41B; raises FY Adj FCF $7.18B- $7.3B, from prior $6.58B-$6.98B and adj EPS $6.00-$6.20 from prior $5.60-$5.80; Raises FY adjusted revenue growth view to high teens vs. previous view mid-teens.
• LMT Q3 EPS $6.95 vs. est. $6.35 and revs $18.6B vs. est. $18.52B; raises FY25 EPS view to~ $22.15-$22.35 from ~$21.70-$22.00 (est. $21.85) while narrows FY25 revenue view to ~$74.25B-$74.75B from ~$73.75B-$74.75B (vs. est. $74.33B).
• NOC Q3 EPS $7.67 vs. est. $6.46; Q3 revs $10.4B vs. est. $10.71B; said it now expects 2025 adjusted profit between $25.65 and $26.05 per share, up from its prior forecast of between $25.00 and $25.40; trimmed its full-year 2025 sales outlook to $41.7B-$41.9B form prior $42.05B-$42.25B.
• RTX rises on results; posts top/bottom line beat ($1.70/$22.48B vs. est. $1.41/$21.32B) and raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $6.10-$6.20 from $5.80-$5.95 (est. $5.95), boosts FY25 revenue view to $86.5B-$87B from $84.75B-$85.5B (est. $85.72B) and backs FY25 free cash flow view $7B-$7.5B.

• In Precious metals: gold and silver prices tumbled sharpy in a sudden decline with no clear trigger other than the massive surge in prices over the last few months to record highs (including a big 3% jump Monday) on profit taking and perhaps ahead of this Friday’s CPI data (big decliners in gold/silver miners AEM, AG, CDE, FSM, HL, NEM, PAAS, WPM; RGLD was upgraded to Outperform and raise PT to $240 after coming off restriction following the closure of the Sandstorm and Horizon acquisition.
• In Industrial Metals/Steel: CLF was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo with $11 tgt saying after a sharp rally in recent weeks and Monday’s 21.5% move, which looks unwarranted. The firm notes shares rose after management noted: 1) an undisclosed MOU with a foreign steel mill; 2) potential rare earth deposits at its iron ore mines in MI, MN; 3) ~$425M of agreed upon asset sales. STLD reported earnings and sales above consensus for Q3 s a decline in the costs of scrap raw material outpaced average pricing at its steelmaking operations/Q3 revs rose 11.2% y/y to $4.83B.
• In Industrials: MMM posted a top and bottom line beat for Q3 ($2.19/$6.32B vs. est. $2.08/$2.08B) and raised its 2025 adj. EPS forecast to $7.95-$8.05 from prior $7.75-$8.00, driven by cost-cutting measures and focus on high-margin products. PCAR shares jumped early after earnings results beat for Q3 but pared gains midday after issuing a more cautious margin outlook.
• Rare Earth stocks (MP, CRML, METC, TMC, UAMY, USAR all tumbled, giving back some of its strong gains over the last month, on hopes of positive trade talks with China/potential upcoming meeting between each leader.

• In Media: WBD said it has initiated a review of strategic alternatives in response to acquisition interest it has received from multiple parties. The company’s board will evaluate options including the sale of the entire company, separate transactions for its Warner Bros. and Discovery Global businesses, as well as continuing to advance the company’s planned separation to be completed by the middle of next year. Reuters reported late day that WBD had rejected a bid from PSKY of between $23-$24 in week.
• In Robotics: AMZN aims to replace over 600,000 U.S. jobs by 2033 through automation, even as it expects to double product sales. Its robotics team targets 75% of operations, potentially eliminating 160,000 roles by 2027. The shift could save $12.6B from 2025–2027 and about $0.30 per item in warehouse and delivery costs https://tinyurl.com/2577yrm4