Early Look

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

U.S. futures are flat as investors digest a heavy dose of earnings overnight/this morning, trade headlines with India and China and get a day closer to its first major economic report on Friday, the consumer price index (CPI) report despite the government shutdown moving into day 22. In stock news overnight, shares of Netflix (NFLX) and Texas Instrument (TXN) decline in tech space after results disappoint Wall Street, though several other companies out with better earnings this morning. In trade news, the US and India are nearing a trade deal which could see tariffs on New Delhi cut by 15-16% from 50% according to reports. President Trump hiked tariffs on India in August over New Delhi’s purchase of Russia oil. Trump predicted on Tuesday that an upcoming meeting between the US and China’s leader Xi Jinping would “yield a good deal” on trade but also said at the same time that the meeting may not happen. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its 12^th record closing high of the year, while the Nasdaq 100 index pulled back slightly from its prior all-time closing high. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dipped -8 points off record highs to 49,307, the Shanghai Index slipped -2 points to 3,913, and the Hang Seng Index declined -245 points to 25,781. In Europe, the German DAX is down -18 points to 24,311, while the FTSE 100 is up 75 points to 9,502. All eyes are now on Tesla (TSLA), which will kick off the ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings parade after markets close. Still no Fed speakers this week ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 218.16 points, or 0.47%, to 46,924.74
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -36.88 points, or 0.16%, to 22,953.67
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -12.22 points, or 0.49% to 2,487.69

• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AA ASGN BANC BDN CACI CBAN CCI CCS CHDN CLB CVLG EGBN ELS EPRT FAF FE GGG GL GSHD GTY HBNC HLX HXL IBM ICLR INBK KALU KMI KNX LC LOB LRCX LVS MEDP MOH NLY NVEC OBK OCFC OII ORLY PDS PLXS QCRH QS RBBN RHI RJF RS SAP SEIC SIGI SON SSB TCBI TSLA URI VKTX WDFC WFG

• Japanese exports in September snapped four months of declines, climbing 4.2% year on year, as shipments to Asia saw robust growth, partially offsetting the drop in exports to the U.S. Exports, however, missed expectations of a 4.6% rise, according to median estimates in a Reuters poll of economists.

• Ford (F) is recalling 1,448,655 vehicles in the U.S. due to a rearview camera issue that could potentially result in a distorted, intermittent, or blank image when the vehicle is in reverse, the NHTSA says
• Hilton (HLT) Q3 EPS $2.11 vs. est. $2.06; Q3 revenue $3.12B vs. est. $3.01B; reports Q3 System-wide comparable RevPAR down 1.1%, on a currency neutral basis, vs. last year; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $7.97-$8.06, vs. consensus $7.79; FY25 System-wide comparable RevPAR, on a currency neutral basis, up 1.0%.
• Mattel Inc. (MAT) Q3 adj EPS $0.89 vs. est. $1.06 on weaker revs fell -5.9% y/y to $1.74B vs. est. $1.84B; backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $1.54-$1.66 vs. consensus $1.61 and also reaffirms FY25 revenue growth view 1%-3%; said U.S. retailers significantly ramped up orders in recent weeks after weak Q3.
• Monarch Casino (MCRI) Q3 EPS $1.69 vs est $1.57, adj EBITDA $54.848Mm vs est $53.93Mm on revs $142.814Mm vs est $145.52Mm; did not provide specific guidance for future quarters or full year; said Q3 casino, food and beverage, and hotel revenues increased, contributing to a 3.6% rise in net revenue.

• GE Vernova (GEV) said that it will acquire the remaining 50% stake of Prolec GE, its unconsolidated joint venture with Xignux with $5.275B purchase price at closing, expected to be funded equally with cash & debt; reported Q3 EPS $1.64 vs. est. $1.62 and revs $9.83B vs. est. $9.16B; reaffirms guidance.
• Matador (MTDR) Q3 adj EPS $1.36 vs. est. $1.23; Q3 revs $939.01M vs. est. $865.33M; Q3 Record production of 209,184 barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent per day for the quarter, which exceeded the midpoint of July 2025 guidance of 199,750 BOE per day by 5%; raises 2025 full-year production guidance range from 200,000 to 205,000 BOE per day to 205,500 to 206,500 BOE per day.
• Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) raises FY25 annual production view to 132,500-134,000 Boepd from 130K-133K Boepd; raises FY25 oil production view to 75K-76.5K Boepd from 74K-76K; narrows FY25 total capital expenditures view to $950M-$1.025B from $925M-$1.05B.
• Weatherford (WFRD) Q3 EPS $1.12 vs. est. $1.19; Q3 revs rose 2% q/q to $1.23B vs. est. $1.18B; Q3 operating income of $178 decreased 25% sequentially; Q3 net income of $81M decreased 40% sequentially; net income margin of 6.6%; Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $269M increased 6% sequentially; said on track to meet FY25 guide.

• Cathay General (CATY) Q3 EPS $1.13 vs. consensus $1.15; Q3 Provision for credit losses of $28.7M; Q3 Net interest margin increased to 3.31% from 3.27% q/q; Q3 total loans, excluding loans held for sale, increased to $20.10 billion, or 1.6%, from $19.78 billion in Q2.
• Chubb (CB) Q3 EPS $6.99 vs est $6.15; Q3 Net Premiums Written: $14.87B vs est. $14.62B; Q3 Net Premiums Earned: $14.36B vs est. $14.04B; P&C Combined Ratio: 81.8% vs est. 87.1% (better profitability); Total Investments: $166.0B, up 4.9% q/q
• East West Bancorp. (EWBC) Q3 EPS $2.65 vs est $2.37 on NII $678Mm vs est $632.95Mm, CET1 capital ratio 14.8%; guides FY NII trending above 10%, sees FY net charge-offs in range of 10-20bps.
• Fulton Financial (FULT) Q3 adj EPS $0.55 vs est $0.50 on NII $264.198Mm vs est $262.56Mm, NIM 3.57%, CET1 capital ratio 11.5%, credit loss provision $10.245Mm.
• Pathward Financial (CASH) Q4 EPS $1.69 vs est $1.36 on NII $128Mm vs est $129.9Mm; guides FY EPS $8.25-8.75 vs est $8.57.
• Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) Q3 EPS $2.28 vs est $2.09 on NII $750.4Mm vs est $741Mm, NIM 3.53%; guides FY NII +8-10% vs est $+8.89%.

• Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) reach global settlement where Jazz to pay $90M to Avadel and waive Lumryz royalties and AVDL to pay Jazz 3.85% royalties on Lumryz sales until 2036. Under primary terms of settlement agreement, Avadel and Jazz will dismiss their respective lawsuits with prejudice; Lumryz sales for future FDA indications start March 1, 2028.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) shares jump on results; Q3 adj EPS $2.40 vs est $1.98 on revs $2.505B vs est $2.404B; sees worldwide da VINCI procedure growth of approx 17-17.5% in 2025.
• Rapt Therapeutics (RAPT) 8.333M share Spot Secondary priced at $30.00
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 adjusted EPS $5.79 tops consensus $5.50 on revs Q3 revenue $11.12B vs. est. $10.91B; said completed acquisitions and collaborated with OpenAI to enhance productivity; said to provide updated 2025 guidance during its earnings call.
• Vicor Corp. (VICR) Q3 EPS $0.63 vs est $0.14 on revs $110.4Mm vs est $95.4Mm.

• Airbus (EADSY), Thales and Leonardo are nearing agreement on the merger of their space businesses, aiming to create a European champion capable of competing in a market destabilized by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, the Financial Times reported overnight.
• Wabtec (WAB) reports Q3 adj EPS $2.32 vs. est. 2.28; Q3 revenue $2.89B vs. est. $2.88B; narrows FY25 adjusted EPS view to $8.85-$9.05 from $8.55-$9.15 (est. $8.97) and continues to expect revenues to be between $10.925B-$11.225B, up 6.6% at the midpoint.
• Waste Connections (WCN) Q3 adj EPS $1.44 above consensus $1.38; Q3 revs $2.45B, in-line with consensus $2.45B; raises quarterly dividend to $0.35, up 11%; reported Q3 adj Ebitda $830.3M and adj Ebitda margin of 33.8% of revs; said no change to FY25 outlook provided in July.

• AT&T (T) Q3 adj EPS $0.54 in line with ests on revs $30.7B vs. est. $30.87B; added 405,000 monthly bill paying wireless subscribers, compared to expectations for 334,100 additions; Equipment revenue in the third quarter grew 6.1%, pushed by stronger phone sales. Operating costs in the mobility unit rose 3.8%; Revenue from its business wireline unit fell 7.8% in the quarter
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 EPS $1.48 vs est $1.49 on revs $4.742B vs est $4.642B; sees Q4 revs $4.22-4.58B vs est $4.507B and EPS $1.13-1.39 vs est $1.41.
• Anthropic PBC is in discussions with Alphabet Inc.’s (GOOGL) Google about a deal that would provide the artificial intelligence company with additional computing power valued in the high tens of billions of dollars, according to people familiar with the matter. per Bloomberg
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) Q3 adj EPS $1.36 vs. est. $1.19; Q3 revs $275.79M vs. est. $271.64M; said solid demand drove cloud revenue growth of 21% and better than expected services revenue generation in the quarter; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $4.95-$4.97 vs. est. $4.83; replenished share repurchase to $100M.
• Omnicom (OMC) Q3 adj EPS $2.24 vs. consensus $2.17 on in-line revs of $4.0B, consensus $4.02B and said they expect to close the Interpublic (IPG) acquisition next month, creating the world’s leading marketing and sales company; Q3 Operating expenses increased $224.5M or 6.8%.
• Pega Systems (PEGA) Q3 adj EPS $0.30 vs est $0.20 on revs +17% y/y to $381.35Mm vs est $345.2Mm; attributes its Q3 success to a differentiated AI strategy that enhances speed, predictability, and scale in enterprise applications; Pega Cloud ACV increased by 27% y/y
• Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adj EPS $1.24 vs. est. $0.99; Q3 revs $2.68B vs. est. $2.59B; sees Q4 adjusted EPS $1.23-$1.29, vs. consensus $1.25 and sees Q4 revenue $2.81B-$2.89B, vs. consensus $2.82B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $4.07-$4.13 from $3.75-$3.85 and ups FY25 revenue view to $10.16B-$10.24B from $9.93B-$10.08B (vs. consensus $10.08B).