Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

U.S. stocks remain in a holding pattern the last two trading days, digesting a heavy dose of large earnings, prepping for its first economic data report of consequence in 3-weeks Friday with the consumer price index (CPI) on deck, and await the FOMC policy meeting next week where the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25-bps. Oil prices edged higher on a report the US and India are nearing a trade deal that could see the country gradually reduce imports of Russian crude, which would boost demand for alternative supplies. US President Donald Trump said Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him during a phone call Tuesday that India would wind down purchases of Russian oil. The dollar index (DXY) is little changed as the yen strengthens and Treasury yields hold near multi-month lows below 4% for the 10-year. Massive volatility in precious metals continue with gold and silver prices extending losses after hitting fresh record highs this week (gold fell -5.74% on Tuesday and edging lower today), while Bitcoin erases yesterday bounce, moving back down around $108,000 after highs above $114K the day prior. Early sector leaders include Energy and Healthcare, with no major sector weak. Breakdown of some of the biggest earnings movers for the day listed below, but NFLX and TXN stand out to downside in tech after results/guidance disappoint.

• In Payments: WEX was upgraded to Buy at Bank America as the company returns to revenue growth and sales initiatives begin to drive revenue growth; says Q3 revenue growth should be positive for the first time since Q324, boosted by fuel prices and easier comps; GPN was downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at Keybanc as believes the Worldpay integration and the post-acquisition growth timelines may limit the stock’s gains in the near-term; FLYW was upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe with a $16 price target citing the company’s strong execution and accelerated investments in 2026, and its conservative outlook for the upgrade.
• In Lodging & Online Travel: HLT reported Q3 results above consensus ($2.11/$3.12B vs. est. $2.06/$3.01B) and reports Q3 System-wide comparable RevPAR down -1.1%, on a currency neutral basis, vs. last year and issue upbeat EPS forecast but sees full-year RevPAR to grow up to 1%, compared with its earlier forecast of an up to 2% rise; Hyatt (H) was upgraded Hyatt to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and raised tgt to $168 from $147 saying they like the company’s sale of Playa real estate and commitment to selling owned and leased hotel assets while also offers higher exposure to the healthier higher-end demand segments. In l=online travel/lodging, Wedbush previewed sector saying BKNG, EXPE ests are achievable for Q3 but are most cautious in ABNB as the alternative lodging data they track has been the softest.
• In Oil & Gas E&P and Equipment: several earnings result out with: EQT with Q3 EPS beat, revenue came in better and sales volumes came in at high end of guidance range. Adj EBITDA ahead of qtr.; WFRD posted a slight Q3 EPS miss, revenue beat, op income in line and said remains on track to meet FY guidance; MTDR posted Q3 EPS beat, adj EBITDA a touch ahead and production came in better while increased FY25 production guidance and expects FY26 capex to be 8-12% lower than 2025; NOG raises FY25 annual production view to 132,500-134,000 Boepd from 130K-133K Boepd; raises FY25 oil production view to 75K-76.5K Boepd from 74K-76K; narrows FY25 total capital expenditures view.

• AVDL +3%; agrees to be acquired by ALKS for total transaction consideration of up to $20.00 per share in cash, which values Avadel at approximately $2.1B (transaction valued at $18.50 per share in cash with a CVR for an additional $1.50 per share in cash).
• BYND +70%; boosting its four-day rally to almost 1,300%, in an echo of the meme-stock madness with several other high-short interest names seeing unusual moves high on no news (DNUT, FLWS, etc.)
• COF +3%; rallies on results as Q3 adj EPS $5.95 vs. consensus $4.36 and revs rose 23% y/y to $15.4B vs. est. $15.08B; authorizes stock buyback of up to $16B; reports Q3 provision for credit losses decreased $8.7B to $2.7B; Q3 non-interest expense increased 18% to $8.3B.
• DKNG +2%; after announced the acquisition of Railbird Technologies Inc. and its wholly owned subsidiary, Railbird Exchange LLC, a federally licensed exchange designated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to broaden its strategy to enter prediction markets.
• ISRG +17%; posted Q3 earnings that topped analysts’ estimates ($2.40 vs. est. $1.98) and said it expects growth of its da Vinci robotic surgical system of between 17% and 17.5% this year, higher than its prior forecast for growth between 15.5% and 17%.
• SMMT +5%; as raised $500 million in a private placement, more than half of which is being bought by company insiders, including co-CEO Robert Duggan.
• WGO +23%; shares jumped after Q4 results topped expectations with EPS $0.71 above consensus $0.52 on revs $777.3M also topping consensus of $726.3M and mid-point of FY adj EPS guidance well above consensus as sees $2.00-$2.70 vs. est. $2.24.

• ARCT -57%; shares tumble after saying an initial analysis comparing lung function from day 1 and day 28 after treatment with its experimental cystic fibrosis therapy did not show improvement in a mid-stage study; the experimental inhaled mRNA therapy ARCT-032 generally safe and well tolerated.
• ASTS -9%; after announces $850M convertible senior notes offering.
• AVAH -13%; after its 10M share Spot Secondary priced at $9.00.
• COIN -3%; Bitcoin prices resume downward momentum after brief bounce Tuesday, last -2.67% around $108,000 and Ethereum -3.3% at $3,828 – weighing on miners CLSK, CIFR, HIVE, HUT, MARA shares as well
• MAT -3%; shares slipped after Q3 earnings and revenue fell short of expectations (EPS $0.89 vs. est. $1.06 on weaker revs fell -5.9% y/y to $1.74B vs. est. $1.84B) and said North America sales declined 12% from last year, weighing on total sales, which fell 6%.
• OKLO -12%; After being among the biggest upside movers in 2025 due to additional power needs to run AI data centers, nuclear powers/SMR names seeing a pullback after inflated stock prices questions on Wall Street, with shares of LEU, NNE, SMR among the biggest downside momentum movers recently.
• NFLX -6%; shares fell after the streaming giant reported Q3 earnings that missed Wall Street estimates ($5.87 vs. $6.97 est.), blaming an unexpected tax dispute in Brazil while revs of $11.5B met expectations; said it had its best-ever quarter for ad sales and issued Q4 guidance slightly better than estimates.
• TERN -10%; announced the discontinuation of its obesity asset, TERN-601, following the release of topline 12-week Phase 2 data. The trial revealed a maximum placebo-adjusted weight loss of 4.6% at doses greater than 500 mg, positioning it at the lower end of efficacy compared to other oral GLP-1 receptor agonists
• TXN -6%; Analog semis/auto chip names fell after TXN reported mixed results as Q3 EPS $1.48 missed est $1.49 on revs $4.742B vs est $4.642B and midpoint of guidance also fell short of consensus as sees Q4 revs $4.22-4.58B vs est $4.507B and EPS $1.13-1.39 vs est $1.41 (shares of ADI, MPWR, NXPI, ON were weaker).
• VRT -2%; erases early gains despite posting robust Q3 earnings and sales growth, forecast further gains in Q4 and boosted its growth projections for the year; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $4.07-$4.13 from $3.75-$3.85 and ups FY25 revenue view to $10.16B-$10.24B from $9.93B-$10.08B.