Closing Recap

Monday, October 27, 2025

U.S. stocks pushed higher all day long, closing at the highs in a slow steady grind following an overnight spike as Wall Street continues to pile into large cap mega tech, with more than 1% gains (or greater) for all seven of the Mag7 tech names, led by surges in TSLA, GOOGL, NVDA and others, ahead of earnings for five of those seven names this Wednesday and Thursday. A combination of easing trade tensions between China/US this weekend as negotiators hammer out details ahead of an expected Trump/Xi meeting later this week, expectations of another 25-bps rate cut Wednesday by the Fed and expected upbeat earnings this week was enough to add to the record closing high from last Friday for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq. Markets were unconcerned by an expected 30,000 job cut announcement by Amazon (as per Reuters), which follows 1,700 job cuts from Target last week – heading into the holiday shopping season. Strong market breadth, crumbling CBOE Volatility index (VIX) down to 15.80 off highs 28.99 more than a week ago as investors continue to pile into tech and momentum plays. Another day, another record high close across the board for major US averages.

This week sees a pair of critical events with the FOMC decision on Wednesday and an expected meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday. The latter may prove the more important of the two since the Fed decision looks unlikely to mark a major shift in market thinking. Expectations are well cemented for the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps, so focus will primarily be on forward guidance and Chairman Powell’s assessment of the economy. Also, this week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is seen easing rates again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to hold its short-term rate at 0.5% next week.

Stocks jumped overnight as top Chinese and U.S. economic officials hashed out the framework of a trade deal for U.S. President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to decide on later this week at a meeting in South Korea. Senior U.S. and Chinese officials reported “constructive” progress in weekend trade talks, as the agenda covered export controls, reciprocal tariffs, rare earths and illicit fentanyl trade, along with discussions over TikTok and agricultural purchases. Separately, President Trump on Saturday said he would be increasing the tariff rate on Canadian goods by another 10% after the country drew his anger by airing an ad featuring former President Ronald Reagan talking negatively about tariffs. The tariff rate against Canada is currently at 35%. Trump’s move follows a Friday declaration that he was immediately ending all trade negotiations with Canada.

Interesting stats: per comments on “X”, @dailychartbook tweets: “”U.S. M&A deal activity increased in September, going up 11.2% with 1,146 announcements compared to 1,031 in August. Aggregate M&A spending increased as well. In September 41.8% more was spent on deals compared to August.”  Stock concentration at its finest as, @TheETFTracker tweeted, “When you buy $10,000 of the Invesco QQQ ETF $QQQ here’s how much of the largest stocks you’re buying: $947 of NVIDIA $NVDA, $828 of Microsoft $MSFT, $824 of Apple $AAPL, $610 of Google $GOOGL+ $GOOG, $573 of Broadcom $AVGO, $504 of Amazon $AMZN, $350 of Tesla $TSLA, $341 of Meta $META, $249 of Netflix $NFLX.”

In foreign markets, Argentina’s stock market soars, boosting US listed Argentina stocks and the peso after Milei scores historic win in Argentina midterms, tightens grip on Congress. The Libertarian President’s party wins 41.5% in Buenos Aires province, increasing lower house seats from 37 to 64. In Asia, huge gains with new records in Japan as The Nikkei Index surged 1,212 points or 2.46% to 50,512, first time above 50K, while the Shanghai Index jumps 46 points to 3,996. Most of the attention on ‘Sanae-nomics’ optimism combined with Fed rate cut expectations/AI tailwinds. Diminished BOJ rate hike expectations have also shored up confidence with many now seeing a December move at the earliest.

• December gold prices fell -$118.10 or 2.86% to settle at $4,019.70 an ounce, recovering after dipping below $4k to lows of $3,985.90 an ounce ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Gold climbed to a record high of $4,398 this month but has retreated over -8% since (fell -3.2% last week snapping its 9-week winning streak) following hints of easing trade tensions between China and the US after negotiators from both sides outlined the framework for a deal to pause steeper American tariffs and defer China’s rare-earth export controls. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are expected to meet on Thursday.
• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $61.31/bbl, down -$0.19 or 0.31% while Brent Crude futures settle at $65.62/bbl, down -$0.32, or 0.49%. The pullback comes after ending Friday with a ~7.6% weekly gain. Oil’s sharp gain last week was driven by US sanctions announcement on Russia’s two biggest crude oil producers, but prices slipped today.
• Tomorrow, the Conference Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Case-Shiller home price index economic data out (not impacted by gov’t shutdown which is in Day 27). The Treasury also auctioning off $44B of 7-year notes. The FOMC meeting is the highlight for Wednesday where the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bp to 3.75-4.0%. Also increasingly expected to announce end to QT.

• In Apparel & Accessory retail: CRI shares fall on earnings as Q3 revs $758M miss estimates $773.09M and said plans to reduce its offices-based roles by approximately 300 positions, or 15%, by the end of 2025; said additional tariffs have begun to add substantially to the approximately $110M in duties on imported product paid by them. LULU said it is partnering with NFL to launch apparel collection.
• In Specialty Retail: VSCO was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs and raise tgt to $32 from $18 saying the company is under new management and implemented several initiatives under its “Path to Potential" strategy, which have driven stronger brand relevance and consumer engagement with both the Victoria’s Secret and PINK banners. IRBT shares fell after saying in 8-K today, "During our most recent negotiations in a potential sale transaction, the last remaining potential counterparty offered a price per share that it would be willing to pay to acquire our company that was significantly lower than the trading price of our stock over recent months."
• In Footwear: WWW was downgraded from Buy to Hold at William Trading, trimming Q325, FY25, and FY26 revenue and EPS estimates, and lowering tgt from $30 to $27 saying Q325 results are unlikely to miss guidance and the consensus estimates. However, expects Saucony’s YoY sales growth will decelerate to LSD by early 2026, after being up ~36% in 1H25, and based on its estimates, increasing over 23% in FY25. Among other names expected to report this week in space include ADDYY, CROX.
• In Food & Beverages: KDP Q3 results were better than expected on sales rising 11% y/y to at $4.31B vs. est. $4.16B and raised its FY sales growth view (constant currency) to high-single-digit range vs a mid-single-digit growth outlook previously. KO, PEP, HSY, MDLZ shares were active after Raw sugar futures on the ICE exchange hit their lowest level in nearly five years on Monday; Raw sugar settled down 0.51 cent, or 3.4%, at 14.46 cents per lb., having hit its lowest since December 2020 at 14.34.
• In Restaurants: KRUS price tgt lowered to $85 from $102 and remove from Best Ideas List at Benchmark to reflect evidence that it is seeing in the Placer AI traffic data of traffic slowing, both in the recently completed August quarter, as well as QTD. The firm added BJRI to its Best ideas list calling it a combination of a powerful brand-inherent value platform that customers actually desire, the upcoming relaunch of an upgraded pizza platform and steady traffic.

• In Lodging/Hotels: BKNG was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist and raise tgt to $5,750 from $5,630 citing Asia’s long-term travel outlook, steady global GDP growth, and the stock’s more attractive valuation.
• In Leisure & Fitness Products: HOG was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to 425 saying Harley sits at the bottom of its leisure framework due to its combination of low pricing power and weak secular trends; LTH was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley as expects upside to consensus driven by reaccelerating unit growth, pricing power, and alternative rev streams supporting growth & value prop. THO was upgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James saying a recent meeting with management solidified its belief that the company’s current outlook is adequately conservative.

• In Oil Services & Equipment: PUMP shares jumped after signs long-term 60-megawatt power contract for hyperscaler data center, leveraging hybrid energy storage technology/said deployment and operations slated to begin in Q2’26. SOC would need about $1.7 billion in funding to implement a floating storage strategy it proposed as an alternative to marketing crude from the Santa Ynez field off California by pipeline, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

• In Asset Managers: JHG confirmed it received an offer letter on Sunday from Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst Group to buy the remainder of the asset management firm that Trian doesn’t already own for $46 a share. https://tinyurl.com/mpa5v35b
• In FinTech: PYPL and MA join forces to accelerate secure global agentic commerce. Mastercard Agent Pay will integrate with PayPal’s wallet to expand and scale agent-driven transactions for consumers and businesses globally. Google also introduced an agentic commerce solution for merchants from PayPal and Google cloud. FRGE shares popped this afternoon after the Financial Times reported the company explores sale after stock price plunge and its cash reserves dwindled.
• In Lending: Auto lenders ALLY, CACC, SYF in focus after, @KobeissiLetter tweets: "Americans are falling behind on their car payments at alarming rates: Subprime auto loan delinquency rates reached 6.43%, the 2nd-highest on record. The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years. Delinquency rates are now ~1.4 percentage points ABOVE the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. Meanwhile, an estimated 1.73M vehicles were repossessed last year, the highest total since 2009."

• CABA and BMY experimental CAR-T therapies have induced complete remissions in patients living with a severe inflammatory muscle disease, results from dual clinical trials being presented this week show. The new data adds to evidence reported over the past several years that personalized cell therapies.
• ELAN received an FDA Emergency Use Authorization for Credelio (lotilaner) to treat New World screwworm infestations in dogs and puppies.
• EW shares jumped this afternoon after announced seven-year data from the PARTNER 3 trial, reaffirming the early and sustained patient benefits of Edwards TAVR.
• NMRA announced the initiation of a Phase 1 single-ascending dose/multiple-ascending dose study of NMRA-898 that may offer an improved therapeutic profile for schizophrenia and other neuropsychiatric disorders over standard of care.
• NTLA shares tumbled after saying it has temporarily stopped dosing and screening patients in two late-stage studies of its gene-editing treatment nex-z for a heart condition after a patient developed liver toxicity; said the case involved spikes in liver enzymes and higher bilirubin in a participant.
• NVS said it will acquire RNA in a $12B all-cash transaction, as shareholders will receive $72 a share in cash, a 46% premium to Friday’s closing price, strengthening its portfolio of treatments for rare muscle disorders.
• OGN shares fell after CEO Kevin Ali said he will resign from his role, after an internal investigation into sales of its Nexplanon contraceptive implant to wholesalers pointed to "improper" practices; an audit committee found certain U.S. wholesalers were asked to purchase more Nexplanon than needed at the end of several quarters.
• RVMD said the FDA granted Orphan Drug designation to daraxonrasib for pancreatic cancer; the drug is currently in the phase 3 RASolute 302 trial for second-line metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.
• SNDX drug, called Revuforj, was cleared Friday to treat patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia caused by a mutation in a gene called NPM1 that makes the blood cancer more difficult to treat. Approximately 30% of AML cases involve an NPM1 mutation
• ZBIO shares jump after saying it received positive results from the phase 2 Moonstone trial of obexelimab for treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis, or RMS, meeting the trial’s primary endpoint.

• In Healthcare Technology/Software: DOCS was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America and raised its price objective to $82 as sees substantial upside revision risk with the Street currently expecting a three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 11%/12%, respectively. RVTY reported Q3 results largely in-line on topline, and raised the low end of its rev guidance, while maintaining its 2% to 4% organic growth guide
• In Medical Equipment: GKOS was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and raise tgt to $120 from $92 saying investors are focusing on iDose but the company’s Epioxa represents a significant underappreciated growth driver.

• In Aerospace & Defense: ONDS announced definitive agreement to acquire controlling interest in 4M defense; RCAT announced the successful flight testing of its Black Widow drone equipped with PLTR Visual Navigation (VNav) Software; BA workers at three Midwest plants where military aircraft and weapons are developed voted Sunday to reject the company’s latest contract offer and to continue a strike that started almost three months ago. The strike includes about 3,200 machinists at the plants.
• In Transports: for airlines (AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV), air travel turmoil deepened with more than 1,660 flights delayed nationwide on Monday and more than 8,600 delays on Sunday, with air traffic controller absences surging amid a federal government shutdown now in its 27th day

• In Industrial metals: copper prices hit 17-month highs on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions and hopes for stronger demand with shares of FCX, SCCO, edging higher.
• Rare Earth sector: shares of US rare earth miners declined on signs of improving trade tensions this weekend between the US/China that would pause Chinese rare earths export controls; shares of MP, UAMY, USAR, METC, CRML among names pulling back early. METC said its Board approved the pursuit of a groundbreaking initiative to establish a national strategic stockpile of rare earth elements and critical minerals at its Brook Mine facility in Wyoming.
• In Lithium space: ALB announces sale of a controlling stake in Ketjen to KPS capital partners; said expects $660M from Ketjen and Eurecat JV sales; retains 100% of Ketjen’s PCS business, including the PCS plant in Pasadena, Texas and separately signs agreement to sell its 50% stake in Eurecat joint venture to Axens SA

• In AI/Data Center: @KobeissiLetter noted on “X”, “The AI investment boom is accelerating: Global AI spending is projected to jump +50% YoY to a record $1.48 trillion in 2025. In 2026, it is set to rise by another +37% YoY to $2.02 trillion. If the global economy continues to grow at the current pace, total AI investment could reach as much as $3.3 trillion by 2029."
• Mercor, a startup that has become a critical component in the ecosystem improving top AI models, is finalizing a new funding deal that would value the company at $10B, people familiar with the matter said. That is five times the value the company had in February before it pivoted to one of the more lucrative arenas in the artificial-intelligence boom. Mercor, which counts OpenAI and Anthropic among its customers, is set to raise $350M, the people said – WSJ
• In Software: BL shares jumped after Bloomberg reported SAP is noted to have made approach for the software firm with an offer that was in the high $60s earlier this year, but was rejected and there are no current talks; SNOW reaffirmed Q3 and FY26 revenue guidance; steady enterprise demand; MSFT was upgraded to Buy at Guggenheim with $586 tgt ahead of earnings this week as believes Microsoft has a near monopoly in the Productivity Suite market with its Office offering and therefore has been and will be able to continue to directly monetize AI offerings (namely Copilot) tied to that product suite.