Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

After closing at this highs of the day and posting record highs in consecutive trading days Friday (after cooler CPI) and Monday (after positive China/US trade headlines) for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and tech heavy Nasdaq Composite, markets are mixed this morning as another round of positive AI headlines (seems like every day a deal is announced) has boosted the Nasdaq while the Smallcap Russell 2000 underperforms. A massive week of market moving catalysts still to come with a large cap earnings barrage (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT) after a busy morning, several central bank policy meetings (FOMC tomorrow as 25 bps cut expected as well as BoC, ECB), and of course eyes on Trump/Xi expected meeting later this week. In Asia tour by President Trump, Japan revealed potential projects for its $550 billion US investment fund, including ventures by SoftBank, Toshiba, and Westinghouse in AI, energy and critical minerals. Tomorrow, a 25-bps cut is expected by the Fed while they are expected to end a 3-year phase of quantitative tightening this week, easing pressures on banks amid concerns that funding is getting too tight in money markets. Earnings movers plentiful this morning (details below), while gold prices extend recent pullback off all-time highs just a week ago and Bitcoin rebounds further. Big movers outside of earnings include CCJ on contract news, QRVO in M&A news and PYPL in OpenAI headlines.

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Oct: -4 (est -12; prev -17) while Business Conditions: -1 (prev -7); Richmond Fed manufacturing shipments index +4 in October.
• Consumer Confidence for October 94.6 vs estimate of 93.4.
• US August 20-metro area home prices +1.6% (consensus +1.3%) from year ago vs +1.8% in July (previous +1.8%) — S&P Case-Shiller said, US August home prices in 20 metro areas +0.2% seasonally adj (consensus -0.1%) vs -0.1% in July (previous -0.1%).

• Precious Metals/miners: shares of silver and gold miners were down (AEM, AG, CDE, HL, NEM, WPM), tracking falling prices of the metals as silver hit one-month lows as investors turn their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting this week. Gold has sold off five of the past six days, with investors locking in some profit after a stellar run this year.
• In Industrials: AOS reported mixed Q3 as EPS beat/revs missed, said is cautious about remainder of year primarily due to continued headwinds in China market as lowers FY25 revenue view to $3.8B-$3.85B from $3.85B-$3.93B and narrows FY25 adjusted EPS view to $3.70-$3.85 from $3.70-$3.90. CR reported a $0.13 operational EPS beat, led by organic sales and OP$/OPM upside across both and ore orders rose nearly 2% Y/Y, with organic backlog up 16%. In Waste sector, WM posted a miss on top and bottom line for Q3 as adj EPS $1.98 vs est $2.02 on revs $6.443B vs est $6.504B; guides FY revs $25.275B vs est $25.392B.

• CFLT +10%; delivered solid Q3 results, headlined by subscription revenue of $286M (+19%) and ahead of management guidance of $281-282M (+17% at the midpoint) while Confluent Cloud landed at $161M (+24%) vs Street estimates of $157.9M (+21.4%), and raised its full year guidance by $6.5M at the midpoint.
• CLS +16%; shares surged in the EMS sector after better results and guidance; Q3 adj EPS $1.58 vs. est. $1.44; Q3 revs rose 28% y/y to $3.19B vs. est. $2.98B; Q3 CCS segment revenue increased 43% compared to Q3 2024; raises 2025 revenue outlook to $12.2B from $11.55B prior and expects 2026 revenue of $16.0B.
• MSFT +4%; rallies to new all-time highs after saying it has reached a deal with OpenAI to allow the ChatGPT maker to restructure itself into a public benefit corporation, following which Microsoft would hold a stake of about $135 billion – or 27% – in the AI startup.
• PYPL +15%; and OpenAI have signed an agreement to embed the payments wallet into ChatGPT. Starting next year PayPal buyers and sellers will be able to complete transactions through the AI tool.
• QRVO +12%; shares rose after SWKS agreed to merge with the rival AAPL chip supplier, in cash-and-stock deal that values the combined company at about $22 billion as Qorvo shareholders will receive $32.50 in cash and 0.960 of a Skyworks share for each share held.
• REGN +8%; as Q3 revenue grows 1% to $3.75B vs. est. $3.58B; Q3 adj EPS $11.83 tops $9.58 consensus, driven by strong product sales; reports strong sales growth for Dupixent and EYLEA HD.
• UPS +7%; a pleasant surprise for transports, as shares surge; Q3 adj EPS $1.74 tops consensus $1.30; Q3 revenue $21.4B vs. est. $20.84B; guides Q4 revs about $24B vs. est. $23.8B; reaffirms FY Capital expenditures of approximately $3.5B and maintains dividend.
• W +21%; after reported much better than expected quarterly revenue and earnings and sees current quarter revenue up mid-single-digits year over year versus estimates of up 3.3%.
• WULF +19%; after Q3 results and announced that it has executed a long-term high-performance computing joint venture with Fluidstack, a premier AI cloud platform that builds and operates HPC clusters.

• DHI -2%; mixed Q4 results as EPS of $3.04 were below the consensus $3.29 on better revs $9.7B (vs. est. $9.42B); CEO says new home demand is still being impacted by ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment; expect sales incentives to remain elevated in FY26.
• EG -9%; as took a $478M reserve charge, mostly related to US casualty reserves in Insurance; announced a closing of $1.2B ADC cover and sale of a $2B book renewal rights to AIG of its retail insurance business.
• FFIV -8%; beat consensus FQ425 revenue/EPS by +2%/$0.42, but guided FQ1 and F26 below by -5%/-$0.44 and -2%/-$1.25, respectively promoting a downgrade to Hold from Buy at Needham (guidance implies a weak F1H26 and a rebound to product growth in 2H).
• GLXY -8%; after announces private offering of $1.0B of exchangeable senior notes.
• INCY -7%; after its annual sales forecast for its blood cancer treatment Jakafi (to $3.05B-$3.8B from $3.0B-%3.5B) after robust demand for the drug helped quarterly revs but said it halted three drug programs.
• OLN -14%; shares fell on mixed Q3 results and lower guidance as Q3 adj EPS $222.4Mm vs est $187.8Mm on revs $1.713B vs est $1.735B; guides Q4 adj EBITDA $110-130Mm vs est $166.65Mm.
• PHG -5%; after the FDA sends a warning letter to Philips regarding issues at their device production facilities
• RCL -8%; shares slipped as forecasts Q4 adj EPS $2.74-$2.79 below analysts’ estimates of $2.89 after reported mixed Q3 with EPS beat but revs $51.4B just missing the $5.16B estimate; also raised annual adjusted profit to be in the range of $15.58-$15.63 btu is below estimates of $15.68.
• RMBS 11%; shares fell; reported JunQ EPS in-line with Street and providing a DecQ EPS outlook $0.02 above consensus. Wells Fargo noted with shares up +77% since Q2 results and trading at 31-times its increased 2027 EPS, they are not surprised to see some pullback.
• WM -3%; posted a miss on top and bottom line for Q3 as adj EPS $1.98 vs est $2.02 on revs $6.443B vs est $6.504B; guides FY revs $25.275B vs est $25.392B.