Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Much like yesterday, major averages are pushing higher, again led by technology stocks (XLK+1%), while broader market breadth remains weaker with more decliners than advancers as the large cap tech names still holding the market higher. Bullishness for technology absolutely no quit, as NVDA becomes the first $5 trillion market cap company (CNBC notes mkt cap more than S&P energy, materials and real estate combined) after several announcements on Wednesday and strength carrying over to semiconductors and other tech after another round of good earnings from STX, CTSH, TER, Hynix overnight and into earnings this evening from GOOGL, META and MSFT! The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrials come into the day with 4-day win streaks (and record highs for 3 straight for all), as markets await the FOMC policy meeting this afternoon at 2:00 pm et, where another 25-bps cut to 3.75-4% is widely expected after the median projection in the September dot plot showed a baseline of three cuts this year, and with the official data paused by the government shutdown and alternative labor market data mixed at best, there is no reason to deviate from the plan to support the labor market for now. Sprinkle in some positive trade news helping sentiment early, including President Trump and Chinese leader Xi meeting tomorrow morning, China purchases 180,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, the first order in months, as show of good faith ahead of tomorrow’s meeting between presidents Trump & Xi. U.S. President Donald Trump also said on Wednesday that a trade deal had been struck with South Korea.

• In Oil E&P and Equipment: AMPY said it will exit from its East Texas assets through two major transactions totaling $127.5M/agreed to sell its remaining Haynesville and Cotton Valley interests for $122M, with the deal expected to close by the end of Q4; EXE reported results and issued 2025 production guidance increase (+0.7%) and 2025 CAPEX guidance decrease (-2.6%); WHD was upgraded from Underperform to Neutral at Bank America saying after a perfect storm of higher cost (tariffs) and lower demand (inability to quickly pass tariffs) in Q2, they see WHD as better placed to pass tariffs & diversify beyond China. PUMP shares jumped after Q3 revs $294.7M tops $275.7M estimate while guides top end of capex spending lower by $20M.
• In Semis: NVDA hits $5 trillion market cap in massive continued upward momentum push. MU rises after SK Hynix said it expects global memory chip market to experience a prolonged “super cycle”, and that supply growth is likely to be limited just as demand for AI applications expand. SMCI launches Super Micro Federal LLC to accelerate its expansion into the U.S. federal market; the new subsidy will use SMCI’s Data Center Building Block services to deploy AI systems. STX Q3 results were better than expected with the company achieving 40% GM and 29% OM ahead of expectations amidst strong datacenter demand (AI inferencing applications driving video growth) paired with stable pricing given tight supply conditions and mgmt said it expects strong demand conditions to persist. SWKS was upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at Keybanc following merger with QRVO as views the merger as highly complementary, combining a strong track record of execution at SWKS with best-in-class RF technologies at QRVO, which possesses superior BAW filter capabilities.

• CAT +12%; Q3 adj EPS $4.95 vs. est. $4.52; Q3 revs rose 9.3% y/y to $17.64B vs. est. $16.77B; says Q3 world machines retail sales up 6%, says North America machines retail sales up 9%; said sees 2025 full-year sales and revenues modestly higher as compared to 2024 and expects strong Q4 sales and revenues growth y/y.
• CNC +7%; shares rise after surprise quarterly profit as Q3 adj EPS $0.50 tops est. loss (-$0.14) on better revs $49.69B (est. $47.83B) and raises FY25 adj EPS view to at least $2.00 from at least $1.75 (vs. est. $1.67).
• CSGS +14%; after agreeing to be acquired by Japanese information-technology company NEC for about $2.3 billion as NEC said it will pay $80.70 a share in cash for CSG, a roughly 17% premium to Tuesday’s closing price of $68.75.
• JAMF +15%; agreed to be acquired by Francisco Partners in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.2 billion, as the company goes private and shareholders to receive $13.05 apiece.
• JOBY +7%; after announced collaboration with NVDA marked by NVIDIA’s selection of Joby as the only aviation launch partner for the new NVIDIA IGX Thor platform.
• NVDA +4%; pure momentum at this point, first $5 trillion company as face of AI continues push higher.
• STX +16%; at new record highs, lifting WDC in HDD sector in sympathy after Q3 results were better than expected with the company achieving 40% GM and 29% OM ahead of expectations amidst strong datacenter demand paired with stable pricing given tight supply conditions and mgmt said it expects strong demand conditions to persist.
• TER +17%; reported adj. Q325 EPS of $0.85 vs consensus $0.79 and indicated Q3 results were driven by SoC solutions for AI applications and strong memory performance, which are expected to remain robust; sees Q4 non-GAAP EPS $1.20-$1.46, vs. consensus $1.02 and sees Q4 revenue $920M-$1.000B, above consensus $816.64M

• AVTR -16%; shares fall after Q3 organic growth and margin guide reset lower following 3Q miss as Q3 revs ($1.6B vs. $1.65B est.) and organic growth (-4.7% vs. -3% est.) missed consensus, with both BPP and LSS missing, and mgmt cut FY25 organic rev growth guide to -3.5%-2.5% vs prior guidance of -2% to 0.
• CZR -12%; reported EBITDAR of $884M, 6% below consensus expectations on the back of bad hold in Las Vegas and online, along with higher-than-expected marketing spend for the digital business. The shortfall in EBITDAR can be attributed to gaming margins, but higher marketing expenses drove player growth.
• ENPH -12%; reported Q3 revenue and gross margins above expectations, while introducing Q4 guidance below estimates as guides Q4 revs $310-350Mm vs. consensus $382.96Mm. U.S. demand strengthened on safe harbor pull-forward and the ramp ahead of the expiring 25D tax credit, but Europe remained weak.
• ETSY -8%; shares slide on CEO change and results as names insider Kruti Goyal as its new chief executive officer, replacing Josh Silverman and posted weaker-than-expected Q3 core sales (GMS) of $2.72B, below ests $2.76B and down from $2.92B y/y (guides Q4 GM in $3.5B-43.65B range vs. est. $3.53B).
• FI -43%; as Q3 GAAP revenue grows 1% y/y to $4.91B missing the $5.37B est. and adj EPS of $2.04 missed the $2.66 estimate; lowers FY organic revenue growth to 3.5%-4%, below prior forecast of +10% and sees Fy adj. EPS between $8.50-$8.60 for 2025, down from its earlier forecast of $10.15-$10.30.
• GNRC -7%; shares slide after Q3 adj. EPS came in at $1.83, below analysts’ estimate of $2.20 on light sales ($1.11B vs. $1.19B estimate); Q3 gross profit margin in Q3 came in at 38.3% vs 40.2% y/y and lowers FY 2025 net sales growth outlook to flat from prior guidance +2%-5% increase and lower margins.
• LRN -48%; shares tumble over -30% as Q3 results beat for EPS/sales but enrollment rose 11.3% y/y, falling short of target by about 10K-15K students, according to the CEO and forecasts FY26 revs of $2.48B-$2.55B vs. est. $2.59B.
• VRNS -44%; shares tumbled after missing annual recurring revenue estimates in Q3 and its lowered its fiscal 2025 ARR guidance on a softer U.S. federal environment and higher churn in on-premise; said on-prem renewals drove a $1M miss to Q3 ARR, a $17M lower to full-year ARR expectations.
• VRSK -14%; cut its full-year revenue outlook to $3.05B-$3.08B from prior view $3.09B-$3.13B after temporary factors, such as a historically low level of severe weather events, hurt growth and also lowered its FY adj Ebitda view to $1.69B-41.72B from $1.7B-$1.74B.