Closing Recap

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

U.S. stocks were steady all morning/early afternoon, holding the prior day record highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrials as Wall Street awaited comments by Fed Chairman Powell and the expected 25bps cut by the Fed this afternoon, followed by earnings after the bell from mega cap tech MSFT, META and GOOGL. At 2:00 the Fed did not disappoint, cutting rates for a second month by 25 bps points though the decision wasn’t unanimous as one Fed voter called for a wider 50-bps cut, while one wanted to hold rates. Stocks saw a modest (and quick) pullback after Fed Chairman Powell said a further reduction in rates at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion saying there are strongly differing views on how to proceed. Powell said a December cut is not for sure, far from it and that today’s cut was a risk management (second straight meeting they said that). Following his comments, traders pared bets on December Fed rate cut, now see 60% chance, down from 90% previously. Fed Chair Powell says committee supports December 1^st freeze of balance sheet size; gives markets time to adapt. By the end of the day, after all the volatile moves on Powell comments, the S&P ended the day…little changed…into Xi/Trump meeting tonight and mega cap earnings.

A divided U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps, to 3.75%-4% and announced it will restart limited purchases of Treasury securities after money markets showed signs that liquidity was becoming scarce, a condition the U.S. Central bank has pledged to avoid. The rate cut drew dissents from two policymakers, with Governor Stephen Miran again calling for a 50bps reduction while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid favored no cut at all given ongoing inflation. The balance sheet decision will as of December 1 keep the total amount of the Fed’s holdings steady on a month-to-month basis but shift its portfolio by reinvesting the proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills. Fed policymakers acknowledged the limits in their decision-making process posed by the government shutdown, dating their view of the unemployment rate to August – the month of the last official jobs release.

While technology (XLK) has been the key driver in the S&P 500 index the last few months to new highs (and +30% YTD), there remains weakness in many other sectors as Consumer Staples (XLP) fell to 7-month lows as food names and personal products drag sector lower (and down -2% YTD), while REITs (XLRE) fell -2% on day below $41, dropping below its 200dma support earlier of $41.60 (now about flat on year). In fact, @MikeZaccardi noted, “$XLRE $VNQ Real Estate worst 2-day slide since the April crash.” Biggest declines today were defensive sectors with more than -2% drops for Staples, REITs as well as more than 1.7% drops for Materials and Financials – but Tech and Energy were higher.

Stats of the day: @charliebilello noted on “X”, “the Dow crossed above 48k today for the first time, joining the S&P and Nasdaq at record highs. This is the 13th straight year in which the Dow has hit at least 1 all-time high, a winning streak that has never happened before in the history of the index which started in 1896.” @schaeffers said, “JPM TRADING DESK: Highly unusual for central bank to cut rates when stocks at ATHs. Only happened 4X & tends to be VERY BULLISH for the market!! $SPX avg return over next 12M? +20%!!! 

• Crude oil benchmarks continue gains with WTI crude rising $0.33 to settle at $60.48 per barrel after data shows U.S. oil and fuel stocks drew down more than expected last week. For the week, the EIA said crude stockpiles fell -6.9M barrels, (bullish), much more than the -200K barrel draw while gasoline stockpiles fell -5.9M bbls vs forecast of -1.9M bbl draw and weekly distillate stockpiles fell -3.4M bbls, more than the forecast of -1.7M bbl draw.

• In Leisure Products/RV: CWH posted a bottom-line beat on better revenue, delivered adj. EBITDA +$3.0M vs. consensus on revenue +$55.2M vs. consensus, including Vehicles (+$76.6M) and F&I (+$6.7M), partially offset by softer PS&O (-$15.5M) and CS&P (-$0.4M).
• In Casinos & Gaming: CZR reported EBITDAR of $884M, 6% below consensus expectations on the back of bad hold in Las Vegas and online, along with higher-than-expected marketing spend for the digital business. The shortfall in EBITDAR can be attributed to gaming margins, but higher marketing expenses drove player growth. RRR reported company-wide EBITDA of $191M, +3% vs. consensus, on the back of strong cost controls. Las Vegas Locals EBITDA of $209M beat consensus, while revenue was in line.

• In Solar: ENPH shares fell after reported Q3 revenue and gross margins above expectations, while introducing Q4 guidance below estimates as guides Q4 revs $310-350Mm vs. consensus $382.96Mm. U.S. demand strengthened on safe harbor pull-forward and the ramp ahead of the expiring 25D tax credit, but Europe remained weak.
• In Oil E&P and Equipment: AMPY said it will exit from its East Texas assets through two major transactions totaling $127.5M/agreed to sell its remaining Haynesville and Cotton Valley interests for $122M, with the deal expected to close by the end of Q4; EXE reported results and issued 2025 production guidance increase (+0.7%) and 2025 CAPEX guidance decrease (-2.6%); WHD was upgraded from Underperform to Neutral at Bank America saying after a perfect storm of higher cost (tariffs) and lower demand (inability to quickly pass tariffs) in Q2, they see WHD as better placed to pass tariffs & diversify beyond China. PUMP shares jumped after Q3 revs $294.7M tops $275.7M estimate while guides top end of capex spending lower by $20M.

• In Payments: FI shares tumble as Q3 GAAP revenue grows 1% y/y to $4.91B missing the $5.37B est. and adj EPS of $2.04 missed the $2.66 estimate; the company acquires CardFree, expands Clover platform in Canada; lowers FY organic revenue growth to 3.5%-4%, below prior forecast of +10% and sees Fy adj. EPS between $8.50-$8.60 for 2025, down from its earlier forecast of $10.15-$10.30 (weighed on payment names FIS, GPN, XYZ, ADYEY, etc.)
• In Credit Cards: Visa (V) posted a solid 4QFY25, with revenue and earnings modestly ahead of Street expectations. 1QFY26 revenue guide came in slightly above consensus, while FY26 targets were broadly in-line. Management highlighted improvement in both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend versus last quarter.

• In Financial Services: VRSK cut its full-year revenue outlook to $3.05B-$3.08B from prior view $3.09B-$3.13B after temporary factors, such as a historically low level of severe weather events, hurt growth and also lowered its FY adj Ebitda view to $1.69B-41.72B from $1.7B-$1.74B.

• AKR reported a Q3 $0.01 miss vs. consensus and lowered guidance ~2% at the midpoint, now in line with consensus, which suggests expectations reset pre-print. Despite the quarterly miss and guidance reduction, underlying fundamentals appear strong: SSNOI growth of 8.2% was above expectations.
• BXP reported a 3Q25 FFO beat which resulted in management raising the low end of its FY25 FFO guidance range $0.05 (MP increased by 36 bps). During 3Q25, fundamentals were relatively positive as SSNOI accelerated (+2.6%), net rents improved (-7.1%), and leasing activity including development lease up was robust.
• REG reported in-line 3Q25 FFO, though management raised FY25 guidance by ~0.5% at the midpoint, driven primarily by a ~63 bps upward revision to SSNOI growth. Fundamentals were strong, highlighted by 4.7% ABR growth, sequential acceleration in leasing spreads, and active capital deployment.

• BBIO announced positive Phase 3 topline results for Encaleret in patients with Autosomal Dominant Hypocalcemia Type 1. The primary end point was achieved by 76% of encaleret-treated participants (34 of 45) compared to 4% for these same participants (2 of 45) while on conventional therapy (p-value <0.0001).
• KVUE shares bounced after U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said there is not enough evidence to show that Kenvue’s pain medicine Tylenol definitively causes autism but said that it should still be used cautiously in consultation with a physician.
• LLY and Walmart pharmacy launch first retail pick-up option with direct-to-consumer pricing for Zepbound; Lilly Direct offers 50% discount on Zepbound as single-dose vials start at $349 per month with self-pay.
• XNCR was double upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Barclays and raised tgt to $23 from $6 saying they have a more positive outlook on the company’s pipeline following updates at the AACR-NCI-EORTC Conference.

• In Life Sciences & Tools: AVTR shares fall after Q3 organic growth and margin guide reset lower following 3Q miss as Q3 revs ($1.6B vs. $1.65B est.) and organic growth (-4.7% vs. -3% est.) missed consensus, with both BPP and LSS missing, and mgmt cut FY25 organic rev growth guide to -3.5%-2.5% vs prior guidance of -2% to 0; TMO agreed to acquire Clario Holdings (private), a leading provider of endpoint data solutions for clinical trials for $8.875B.

• In Machinery: CAT Q3 adj EPS $4.95 vs. est. $4.52; Q3 revs rose 9.3% y/y to $17.64B vs. est. $16.77B; says Q3 world machines retail sales up 6%, says North America machines retail sales up 9%; said sees 2025 full-year sales and revenues modestly higher as compared to 2024 and expect strong Q4 sales and revenues growth y/y.
• In Truckers/LTL: LSTR shares dipped initially on earnings as Q3 rev met estimates while ODFL topped Q3 profit estimates, helped by tight expense control, while its operating ratio, a key metric that indicates operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, fell 30 basis points to 74.3% on a sequential basis during the quarter.
• In Aerospace & Defense: BA reported a charge of ~$5B related to delays in 777X jet program and posted a Q3 EPS loss of (-$7.47) vs. est of $4.59 while its total backlog grew to $636B, including over 5,900 commercial airplanes; JOBY announced a collaboration with NVDA marked by NVIDIA’s selection of Joby as the only aviation launch partner for the new NVIDIA IGX Thor platform.

• In Internet: ETSY shares slide on CEO change and results as names insider Kruti Goyal as its new chief executive officer, replacing Josh Silverman and posted weaker-than-expected Q3 core sales (GMS) of $2.72B, below ests $2.76B and down from $2.92B y/y (guides Q4 GM in $3.5B-43.65B range vs. est. $3.53B).
• In Media: GCI shares add to gains after Citizens noted On Tuesday, a federal judge in New York barred Google from relitigating whether it monopolized the ad server and ad exchange markets, moving Gannett’s lawsuit into the damages phase.

• In Hardware & Components: GRMN was one of the worst S&P 500 performers as Q3 revenue grows 12% yr/yr to $1.77B but misses analyst expectations of $1.8B though net income for Q3 beats analyst estimates; upward guidance failed to boost shares.
• In Data/Cyber Security: VRNS shares tumbled after missing annual recurring revenue estimates in Q3 and its lowered its fiscal 2025 ARR guidance on a softer U.S. federal environment and higher churn in on-premise; said on-prem renewals drove a $1M miss to Q3 ARR, a $17M lower to full-year ARR expectations.
• In Software: JAMF agreed to be acquired by Francisco Partners in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.2 billion, as the company goes private and shareholders to receive $13.05 apiece.

• MU rises after SK Hynix said it expects global memory chip market to experience a prolonged "super cycle", and that supply growth is likely to be limited just as demand for AI applications expand
• SMCI launches Super Micro Federal LLC to accelerate its expansion into the U.S. federal market; the new subsidy will use SMCI’s Data Center Building Block services to deploy AI systems.
• STX Q3 results were better than expected with the company achieving 40% GM and 29% OM ahead of expectations amidst strong datacenter demand (AI inferencing applications driving video growth) paired with stable pricing given tight supply conditions and mgmt said it expects strong demand conditions to persist.
• SWKS was upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at Keybanc following merger with QRVO as views the merger as highly complementary, combining a strong track record of execution at SWKS with best-in-class RF technologies at QRVO, which possesses superior BAW filter capabilities.
• TER shares soar after reported adj. Q325 EPS of $0.85 vs consensus $0.79 and indicated Q3 results were driven by SoC solutions for AI applications and strong memory performance, which are expected to remain robust; sees Q4 non-GAAP EPS $1.20-$1.46, vs. consensus $1.02 and sees Q4 revenue $920M-$1.000B, above consensus $816.64M