Closing Recap

Thursday, October 30, 2025

U.S. stocks ended lower, though remain resilient as mixed results in large cap tech overnight (META weak/GOOGL strong), some trade deal news between China/US were reached (but lacked details), and a questionable outlook for further interest rate cuts in December given Fed Chairman Powell comments yesterday saying a cut was “not a given” at this point due to lack of economic data gave kept markets in the “red” on Thursday. The Dow and Russell 2000 outperformed, while Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communications (XLC) were the biggest losers as the Nasdaq snapped its 5-day win streak. Investors rotated into the weekly laggards on Thursday as financials, industrials, REITS, and healthcare all posted gains, though markets ended near lows. Investors now await earnings results from Apple and Amazon tonight in a busy slate of earnings. In trade, Trump and Xi agreed to extend a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers. The Federal government shutdown also moved into day 30, and on track to be the longest shutdown in history as two sides can’t agree on healthcare.

Related to today’s market activity and continued stock market resiliency, Roth Capital Strategist/economist Michael Darda said in a note today, “Several fashionable themes have taken root this year, all of which are interrelated. First, AI is perceived to be an increasing threat to white collar employment with daily stories about high profile corporate layoffs or hiring freezes. Second, and relatedly, the jobs market has weakened and diverged from activity indicators (GDP tracking estimates remain strong). Third, AI optimism has sent the S&P 500 on a tear, driven by large cap technology stocks. Forward valuations now stand at 23x. Outside of a brief period during 2021, current valuation levels have only been eclipsed during the 1999-2000 info tech boom (which preceded a nearly three-year down market). None of this imbues a sense of confidence.

In yesterday’s session the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25bps, setting it in a new range of 3.75% to 4% in an effort to address a hiring slowdown. The vote reflected a three-way split, with Miran dissenting for a larger 50bps reduction, while KC Fed’s Schmid preferred to maintain the current rate. In a separate action, the Fed announced it will halt the reduction of its $6.6 trillion asset portfolio on December 1, effectively ending a 3.5-year effort to unwind pandemic-related stimulus measures. Chair Jerome Powell quickly countered market expectations for another rate cut in December. “A further reduction of the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion,” Powell stated after the meeting.

In trade news overnight, President Trump said he had agreed with President Xi Jinping to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming U.S. soybean purchases and keeping rare earths exports flowing. Trump’s met face-to-face talks with Xi for the first time since 2019 last night. Trump said tariffs on Chinese imports would be cut to 47% from 57%, by halving to 10% the rate of tariffs related to trade in fentanyl precursor drugs. China agreed to pause export controls unveiled this month on rare earths, elements with vital roles in cars, planes and weapons that have become Beijing’s most potent source of leverage in its trade war with the United States. They also agreed to pause tit-for-tat port fees on shipping.

Interesting stats: @JessicaMenton notes “The S&P 500 Index $SPX has spent 125 sessions above its 50-day moving average, its longest stretch since 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The benchmark has clocked only three longer runs in the past 30 years via @markets”. Also of note, Nasdaq futures (NDX) crossed above 24,000 yesterday for the first time, hitting another record high. It took just 22 days for the index to go from 23,000 to 24,000, the shortest amount of time between 1,000-point milestones on record. @AndrewThrasher noted on X, “Yesterday had the most 6-month lows in the S&P 500 since April, despite the Index being just 0.004% from an all-time high.” Lastly, @charliebilello tweets: “Active managers reduced their equity exposure down to 35% back in April when the S&P 500 fell below 5,000. This week, their equity exposure jumped over 100% (leveraged long) with the S&P 500 at 6,900. This is their highest equity exposure since July 2024. $SPX“

In Sentiment weekly data: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +7.1% vs -5.8% last week. Bulls rise to 44%, from 36.9%, Neutrals fall to 19.1% from 20.5%, and Bears drop to 36.9% from 42.7%. 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to a new 52 week hi of 100.83 from last week’s 90.35 – prior 2025 hi of 99.30 from 7/3 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q3) of 86.63 – first reading over 100 since the 103.66 on 7-3-24.

• Crude oil contracts were little changed Thursday, as Brent Crude futures settle at $65.00/bbl, up $0.08, or 0.12% and WTI crude settles +$0.09/bbl, or +0.15%, at $60.57 as energy investors reviewed a temporary truce in trade tensions between the U.S. and China following a meeting between the two leaders. Both oil benchmarks fell about $1 on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned against assuming a December cut in interest rate was all but guaranteed.

• In Footwear: BOOT Q2 net sales grow 18.7% to $505.4M, beating analyst expectations of $494M as net income for fiscal Q2 rises and issues better guidance; CROX shares rose as Q3 EPS/revs top consensus and issues better Q4 results/Crocs brand benefited from a 5.8% increase in international revenues, offsetting declines in North America.
• In Consumer Products: in beauty, EL beats Q1 profit and sales of $3.48B topped ests $3.38B on better profit and posted 13% jump in sales in its fragrance unit, driven by double-digit growth from luxury brands; KMB Q3 sales and profit topped consensus and said expects 2025 organic sales growth to be in line with the roughly 2% average growth seen across the categories; MO shares fell after forecast annual profit largely below market expectations, hurt by lower demand for its cigarettes and oral smoking alternatives.
• In Food: UTZ posted Q3 sales $377.8M above ests $374.4M and raises 2025 Organic Net Sales growth guidance to approximately 3%; Kellanova (K) topped Q3 estimates for sales and profit, driven by resilient demand for its ready-to-eat breakfast items and snacks; HSY Q3 EPS/sales top consensus, raises annual sales forecast after upbeat quarterly results on strong confectionery and snacks demand as sees annual net sales growth of about 3%, up from prior at least 2%. SFM tumbles after softer than expected Q3 comp delivery and guided Q4 below the Street; Q3 EPS of $1.22 topped Street $1.17 with stronger gross margins and expense controls more than offsetting a weaker than expected top-line delivery.

• In Casinos/Gaming: MGM Q3 EPS and Ebitda missed consensus due to lackluster Las Vegas results while Macau produced Q3 record EBITDA and market share (at 15.5%). RSI beat revenue and EBITDA expectations during Q325 and y increased guidance for the full year, as 4Q25 revenue is implied at $300M, compared to consensus expectations of $295M (+2% ahead).

• In Oil Equipment/E&P: MGY reported 3Q25 adjusted EPS/EBITDAX of $0.40/$219M vs. consensus at $0.42/$224M and guided Q4 total production of ~101 Mboe/d (vs consensus estimates at 101); AR Q3 EBITDAX of $318M vs consensus at $315M, adjusted EPS of $0.16 below est. $0.24 and total production of 3,429 Mmcfe/d was in-line.

• Keybanc recapped earnings results overnight in REITs: EPR reported a Q325 FFOAA but management modestly raised the MP of its FY25 FFOAA guidance by 20 bps; EXR reported in-line Q3 results and raised FY25 Core FFO guidance by $0.01 at the midpoint (+0.1%) and mgmt lowered SSREV/SSNOI growth forecasts by 25 bps/37.5 bps; KRG beat Q3 consensus by $0.02 and raised FY25 NAREIT/Core FFO guidance by $0.02h at the midpoint; PSA delivered a high quality Q3 Core FFO beat (+$0.07/share vs consensus) and mgmt raised the midpoint of FY25 Core FFO guidance by 0.75% and increased SSREV and SSNOI growth forecasts; VTR reported positive Q325 results, which included a NFFO beat, ~1% ’25 NFFO guidance increase, and a favorable update on SHOP trends and investments.

• BAX Q3 revs $2.84B below est. $2.88B and cuts annual EPS view to $2.35-$2.40 from $2.42-$2.52 prior.
• BIIB lowers FY25 EPS view to $14.50-$15.00 from $15.50-$16.00 vs. est. $15.76.
• BMY Q3 EPS and revs top consensus and raises outlook citing the strong performance of its growth portfolio
• LLY raised its full-year profit and revenue forecast, betting on surging demand for its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs; guides FY EPS $23.00-$23.70 above its prior view of $21.75-$23.00 and ests $22.18).
• MRK reported Q3 EPS and revenue beat, but shares slipped after narrows revenue outlook for the full year to $64.5 billion-$65.0 billion vs prior forecast of $64.3 billion to $65.3 billion
• MTSR shares jumped after NVO said it has made an unsolicited bid for the drug maker after PFE in September made an offer for the company. Novo said it had offered $56.50 per share in cash for Metsera, corresponding to an enterprise value of $6B (above prior PFE bid of $47.50 or $4.8B). Shares of other obesity drugmakers ALT, GPCR, VKTX saw gains in sympathy)
• SVRA 23.81M share Spot Secondary, priced at $4.20.
• TMDX shares fell after Q3 revs $143.8M missed $144.6M estimate, though raises 2025 rev guidance.

• CAH posts Q3 EPS and revs handily above consensus and raised its earnings forecast for fiscal 2026 to a range of $9.65 to $9.85 per share, up from its previous forecast of $9.30 to $9.50.
• CI Q3 adj EPS $7.83 vs. est. $7.64; Q3 revs $69.57B vs. est. $66.74B; Q3 medical care ratio rose to 84.8% from 82.8% a year ago; reaffirms annual profit forecast of at least $29.60.
• DVA reported 3Q results that came in shy of our/consensus estimates but were in-line with management expectations with FY guidance ranges tightened and unchanged at the MP. Volumes declined y/y
• EHC Q3 results were highlighted by a 1% EBITDA beat, 2.9% SS discharge growth, and strong labor management while EBITDA guidance was raised slightly more than the beat.
• GH shares rise as delivered another robust 12% top line beat and raised its guide well in excess of the beat
• GKOS shares rise as reported strong Q3 as Glaucoma revenue of $110.2M; reported Q3 sales/EPS beat and raised FY25 guidance by $9.5M and provided preliminary FY26 sales outlook bracketing consensus.
• TDOC Revenue was -2.2% y/y but +0.2% versus consensus, with U.S. Integrated Care (IC) Members +9% y/y (in line with consensus) and Integrated Care PMPM -7% y/y (but +1% vs consensus); FY25 guidance was reiterated at the midpoints but narrowed with slight adjustments to segment detail

• BA was downgraded to Hold from Buy with $240 PT at Deutsche Bank as believes the buy-side hurdle rate for investing in Boeing is closer to 20%, so a 12% IRR is insufficient for a continued Buy rating.
• BWXT said was awarded U.S. Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program contract totaling approximately $174M for the manufacture of naval nuclear reactor fuel. The contract was awarded on Sept. 10, 2025.
• CHRW shares jump on results Q3 adj EPS $1.34 vs est $1.30, on revs $4.1B vs est $4.266B.
• EME shares fall as Q3 EPS/revs top consensus but narrows FY25 EPS view to $25.00-$25.75 from $24.40-$25.75 and narrows FY25 revenue view to $16.7B-$16.8B from $16.4B-$16.9B (est. $16.75B).
• HII beats Q3 profit estimate amid robust demand for its aircraft carriers and submarines and raises lower end of FY shipbuilding revenue forecast to $9B, up from prior range of $8.9B-$9.1B.
• LHX boosts annual revenue and profit forecasts after beating Wall Street estimates for Q3 earnings, driven by resilient demand fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions.
• MYE Q3 net sales rose 0.2%, beating analyst expectations while adj operating income for Q3 beats estimates, reflecting improved cost productivity; said initiates sale process for Myers Tire Supply.
• PWR raised its annual revenue forecast (to $27.8B-$28.2B from prior $27.4B-$27.9B) and beat estimates for Q3 results as growing power needs in the U.S. fueled core electric and renewables business.
• REVG to be acquired by TEX in $9B deal, creating a leading specialty equipment manufacturer as REVG holders will receive, for each rev group share, 0.9809 of a share of combined company and $8.71 in cash.
• In Drone news (RCAT, ONDS, UMAC) Reuters reported The Pentagon’s DOGE unit is leading efforts to overhaul the U.S. military drone program, including streamlining procurement, expand homegrown production, and acquire tens of thousands of cheap drones in the coming months.
• Airlines slipped late day after UAL CEO said forecasting some economic impact due to govt shutdown, which weighed on shares of AAL, DAL, LUV, JBLU, ALK. VP Vance followed up saying if the shutdown goes to Thanksgiving it could be a disaster for airline industry.
• In Satellite: GSAT shares jumped this afternoon after Bloomberg reported the company is exploring a potential sale and has drawn interest from Elon Musk’s SpaceX, according to reports. The satellite operator is working with an adviser as it evaluates possible buyers. https://tinyurl.com/5apbrk2k

• In Metals: CLF shares fell after the company announced a proposed offering of 75M common shares and said also intends to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 11.25M shares.
• Rare earth names active (MP, USAR, CRML, METC, UAMY) after the US and Beijing reached a framework for a trade deal that could pause planned U.S. tariffs and Chinese export controls on critical minerals, easing fears of supply disruptions that had boosted the sector this year.
• Paper stocks weak again: IP shares fell as swings to quarterly loss, as the packaging firm recorded a $1 billion charge related to the sale of its cellulose fibers business; the company also reported revs of $6.22B missing the $6.5B estimate (follows weaker results from SW the day prior as shares sunk on Q3 miss).

• In Search: GOOGL shares jumped after Q3 EPS $2.87 topped ests $2.26 and prior year $2.12, on better revs rising 16% y/y to $102.3B vs. est. $99.9B (cloud sales +34%; operating margin came in at 30.5%, below 32.3% last year (but ex EC $3.5B fine would have been 33.9%); raised its capex spending to $92B from prior view $85B.
• In Internet: EBAY shares fell as Q3 GMV came in nearly 3% above the high end of guidance as Focus Category growth accelerated five points, to +15% Y/Y and 1P advertising accelerated to +23% Y/Y ex-FX growth, up 600bps from Q225, but gross profit margins contracted 90bps and PF operating margins contracted 10bps Y/Y as GAAP operating income fell by $19M Y/Y.
• In Media: FOX and CMCSA shares both active following quarterly results; WBD upgraded from Neutral to Buy w/ $28 PT at Redburn as they look at potential suitors, size cost and revenue synergies, estimate pro-forma trading multiples and consider regulatory and other issues to determine a potential take-out price, as well as the best positioned bidder.
• In Semis: KLAC reported F1Q results and F2Q guide slightly ahead of consensus, but took a positive tone on the call, saying accelerating AI investment is driving demand in compute, memory and advanced packaging, and increasing customer engagement beyond the leading foundry. That bullish commentary was tempered by some uncertainty in ramp timing which depends on clean room & new fab space availability
• In Advertising: WPP shares declined to multi-decade lows after saying they expect FY headline operating profit margin to be around 13%, below company-compiled consensus of 13.5% while the CEO said the co suffered string of big client losses; numbers were "unacceptable" WPP said it expects FY revenue less pass-through costs to fall 5.5 % to 6.0% vs prior forecast of -3.0% to -5% fall.

• MSFT reported Q3 beat on top/bottom line ($7.25/$77.7B vs. est. $6.69/$75.32B), while Azure revenue rose by 40% versus a 38% analyst estimate while guided Q2 revs $79.5b-$80.6B vs. est. $80.1B and said Azure growth will come it at 37% growth.
• NOW posted a strong print with 20.5% CC cRPO growth 250bps above guidance; OM was ~300bps better due to sustained GenAI efficiencies, and management increased FY25 FCF margin guidance by 200bps
• RBLX reported Q3 bookings $1.92B, which tops est $1.65B and daily active users grew 70% YoY to 151.5M, while raising year bookings view to $6.57B-$6.62B, but shares fell after saying it expects operating margin to decline slightly next year on higher developer payouts and increased spending on safety/infrastructure.
• OpenAI is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time. OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising $60B at the low end and likely more, the people said. – Reuters