Early Look

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

After U.S. stocks tumbled on Tuesday, closing at their lows, futures are trading modestly lower this morning, off their overnight lows (Spuz at 6,783 vs. low 6,748) as the selloff underscores how stretched the AI-fueled rally in semiconductor stocks, nuclear names, and data centers has become after hitting record highs just last week. U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq taking the brunt of the selling pressure, as comments from the CEOs of two major banks (MS, and GS) ignited concerns about stretched valuations and possible market bubbles. Both CEOs cautioned that equity markets could be heading toward a drawdown, underscoring growing worries over sky-high valuations. The comments echoed remarks by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon last month about the heightened risk of a significant correction in the stock market within the next six months to two years. The move also comes as the government shutdown enters day 36 (with no end in sight) and the lack of economic data has lessened the chances of a more aggressive rate cutting Fed given the lack of information about the economy, as Chair Jerome Powell recently pushed back on the likelihood of a December rate cut. Non-government issued data will help give a clue about the economy as traders will look to the ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday for clues about the labor market, alongside updates on mortgage applications and ISM services activity. Meanwhile, President Trump’s tariffs face a key test on Wednesday when the Supreme Court hears arguments in a case questioning his legal authority to impose his most sweeping duties. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled 1,284 points or 2.5% to 50,212, the Shanghai Index rose 9 points to 3,969, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -16 points to 25,925. In Europe, the German DAX is down -190 points to 23,759, while the FTSE 100 is down slightly at 9,708.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -251.44 points, or 0.53%, to 47,085.24
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -486.09 points, or 2.04%, to 23,348.64
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -43.89 points, or 1.78% to 2,427.35

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct-Final…prior 54.8
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Oct-final…prior 55.2
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for Oct…est. 50.8
• 10:30 AM ET EIA Weekly Energy Inventory data

• Earnings After the Close: ACAD ACHC ACT ADMA ADPT AIN ALB ALL ALTO AMC AMCR AOSL APA APP ARKO ARM ARRY ATO AWR BGS BMBL BROS CAI CF CHYM CNMD COHR COOK COTY CPAY CPRX CRH CSGS CVRX CW CWAN CXW CYTK DASH DLX DUOL DVAX DVN ECPG EE EHAB ELF ENS ENVX EOLS EOSE ERII ET FC FICO FIG FRSH FSLY FTNT FWRD GEF GFL GNK HCC HL HLF HNST HOOD HRTG HST HUBS INFA IONQ IPAR IPI JAZZ JOBY KE KMPR KVYO KW LCID LEU LNW LOPE LYFT LZ MCK MET MGNI MKSI MQ MTW MUR NATL NFG OSUR OTEX PACB PAYC PCOR PEN PR PRCH PRI PTC QCOM QDEL QTWO RAMP RELY RGLD RM RVMD RYN SAFE SBGI SEZL SKYT SLF SNAP SPT STE SVC TALO TKO TLN TROX UIS ULCC USPH VAC VECO VIR WK WTI WTS XPER ZIP ZVIA

• World Business Forum 2025, 11/5-11/6, in New York

• Democrat Zohran Mamdani was elected as the 111th mayor of New York and is the youngest to hold the position in more than a century, securing over 50% of the votes. Voter turnout in New York City’s mayoral election reached its highest level in over 30 years.
• Democrat Representative Mikie Sherrill was elected governor of New Jersey by a significant margin. She is set to take office in January, succeeding Governor Philip D. Murphy, who has served nearly eight years and was unable to run for re-election due to term limits.
• The Proposition 50 initiative has passed in California, according to AP. The ballot measure allows California to redraw the congressional map in favor of Democrats.

• Estée Lauder (EL) announces secondary offering of class a common stock by selling Stockholders.
• Live Nation (LYV) Q3 revs $8.49B vs. est. $8.57B; said ticket sales for Live Nation concerts in 2026 have reached 26 million, up double digits overall; Live Nation’s concert business generated $7.28B in Q3, below analysts’ expectations of $7.67B and Q3 ticket sales reached an estimated total of about $797.6M vs. est. $793M.
• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.96) vs est. loss (-$0.86); Q3 revs $1.56B vs. est. $1.51B; for Q3, 10,720 vehicles produced at Rivian’s manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois.13,201 vehicles delivered to customers; said Preparations of its R2 vehicle remain on track to launch in the first half of 2026.
• Trex Company (TREX) shares fell; Q3 adj EPS $0.51 Vs est $0.57 On revs $285Mm Vs est $300.59Mm; guides Q4 sales $140-150Mm Vs est $199.41Mm and FY sales $1.15-1.16B Vs est $1.228B; sees FY adj EBITDA mgn 28.0-28.5%

• Eversource Energy (ES) Q3 adj EPS $1.19 Vs est $1.13 On revs $3.22B Vs est $3.166B; reaffirms expected compound annual EPS Growth rate +5-7% from 2024 base of $4.57
• Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) entered into a definitive agreement whereby Ovintiv will acquire all of the outstanding shares of NuVista in a cash and stock transaction that values NuVista at approximately $2.7B (C$3.8B).

• Aflac Inc. (AFL) Q3 adj EPS $2.49 vs. est. $1.78 and revs $4.7B vs. est. $4.48B; average yen/dollar exchange rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 147.68, or 0.2% stronger than the average rate of 147.95 in the third quarter of 2024; U.S. net earned premiums were $1.5B and 3Q Aflac Japan’s net earned premiums were yen 245.2B.
• Jack Henry (JKHY) Q3 EPS $1.97 Vs est $1.71 On revs $644.7Mm Vs est $635.31Mm, Op mgn 28.5%; guides FY adj revs $2.465-2.488B Vs est $2.492B and EPS $6.38-6.49 Vs est $6.41
• Kennedy-Wilson (KW) received an acquisition proposal from its chief executive and Canadian insurance company Fairfax Financial to be bought for $10.25 a share, valuing the company around $1.5B.
• Toast Inc. (TOST) Q3 EPS $0.16 Vs est $0.13 On revs $1.633B Vs est $1.583B, annual recurring revs $2.0B; guides Q4 adj EBITDA $140-150Mm Vs est $142.7Mm; sees FY adj EBITDA $61-620Mm Vs est $581.41Mm.
• Upstart Holdings (UPST) shares tumbled; Q3 EPS $0.23 Vs est $0.42, adj EBITDA $71.2Mm On revs $277Mm Vs est $279.62Mm; guides Q4 revs approx $288Mm Vs est $303.62Mm, NII approx $26Mm Vs est $33.6Mm, adj EBITDA approx $63Mm.

• Exelixis (EXEL) Q3 adj EPS $0.78 Vs est $0.61 On revs $597.8Mm Vs est $590.3Mm; guides FY revs $2.3-2.35B Vs est $2.321B.
• Humana (HUM) Q3 adj EPS $3.24 tops consensus $2.83 on revs $32.65B vs. est. $32.01B; lowered its full-year earnings forecast to $12.26 a share, down from its previous guidance of $13.77 a share but reiterated its adjusted-earnings outlook of $17 a share; said it now expects a decline of about 425,000 Medicare Advantage members for the year, up from its previous forecast of a decline of up to 500,000 members.
• Tempus AI (TEM) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.11) vs. est. loss of (-$0.18); Q3 revs rose 84.7% y/y to $334.2M vs. est. $328.67M; 217,000 clinical tests delivered in the quarter, representing 33% y/y volume growth, with Oncology volume growth accelerating to 27% and Hereditary at 37%; Increasing full year 2025 revenue guidance to $1.265 billion, representing approximately 80% growth y/y.

• Corteva (CTVA) Q3 adj EPS ($0.23) Vs est ($0.53) On revs $2.618B Vs est $2.475B; guides FY revs $17.7-17.9B Vs est $17.603B, adj EBITDA $3.8-3.9B Vs est $3.821B and EPS $3.25-3.35 Vs est $3.13; preliminary FY26 Op EBITDA $4.1B at midpoint.
• GXO Logistics (GXO) Q3 adj EPS $0.79 vs est. $0.78; Q3 revs $3.395B vs. est. $3.38B; EBITDA for Q3 beat estimates, highlighting strong operational performance; reaffirms full-year 2025 guidance with organic revenue growth of 3.5% to 6.5% and affirms FY25 adjusted EPS view $2.43-$2.63, consensus $2.50.
• International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) Q3 adj EPS $1.05 vs. consensus $1.02 and Q3 revenue $2.7B vs. est. $2.63B; backs FY25 revenue view $10.6B-$10.9B and backs FY25 adjusted operating EBITDA view $2B-$2.15B.
• Kratos Defense and Security (KTOS) Q3 adj EPS $0.41 Vs est $0.12, adj EBITDA $30.8Mm Vs est $28.8Mm On revs $347.6Mm Vs est $322.3; guides Q4 revs $320-330Mm Vs est $334.38Mm, adj EBITDA $29-34Mm Vs est $35.65Mm.
• Mosaic (MOS) Q3 adj EPS $1.04 vs. est. $0.95; Q3 revs $3.5B vs. est. $3.82B; said Q4 sales volumes are expected to be slightly below Q3, driven by normal seasonality. Distribution margin per tonne is expected to be below the normal annualized $30-$40 range, also reflecting typical seasonality.
• O-I Glass (OI) Q3 adj EPS $0.48 vs. est. $0.42; Q3 revs $1.7B vs. est. $1.66B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $1.55-$1.65 from $1.30-$1.55 (est. $1.47) and backs FY25 free cash flow view of $150M-$200M; said Q3 Sales volume (in tons) was down as modest growth in the NAB, Food and RTD categories was more than offset by lower Beer and Wine.
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• Arista Networks (ANET) Q3 adj EPS $0.75 Vs est $0.72 On revs $2.308B Vs est $2.257B; guides Q4 revs $2.3-2.4B Vs est $2.325B, adj gr mgn 62-63% and adj Op mgn 47-48%.
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Q3 adj EPS $0.49 Vs est $0.39, adj Op Inc $96.1Mm Vs est $76.8Mm On revs $230.6Mm Vs est $206.5Mm, adj gr mgn 76.4%; guides Q4 adj EPS $0.51 Vs est $0.42.
• Coupang (CPNG) Q3 adj Ebitda $413M vs. est. $416.8M; Q3 revs rose 18% y/y to $9.3B vs. est. $9.11B; Q3 Gross profit increased 20% YoY and 22% YoY on a constant currency basis to $2.7B; Q3 Product Commerce segment net revenues were $8.0B, up 16% YoY on a reported basis and 18% YoY on a constant currency basis.
• Jabil Inc. (JBL) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Hanley Energy Group, a provider of energy management and critical power solutions serving the data center infrastructure market, for approximately $725M plus contingent consideration up to $58M.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Q1 adj EPS $1.10 Vs est $1.03 On revs $533.8M Vs est $525.4M, adj Op mgn 18.7%, adj gr mgn 39.4%; guides Q2 revs $630-670Mm Vs est $560.16Mm, adj Op mgn 20.0-22.0% and adj EPS $1.30-1.50 Vs est $1.28.
• Qualys (QLYS) Q3 adj EPS $1.86 Vs est $1.56 On revs $169.9Mm Vs est $166.3Mm, adj gr mgn 85%; guides Q4 revs $172-174Mm Vs est $169.51Mm and adj EPS $1.73-1.80 Vs est $1.56.
• Pinterest (PINS) shares fell; Q3 adj EPS $0.38 Vs est $0.42, adj EBITDA $306.051Mm Vs est $294.9Mm On revs $1.049B Vs est $1.048B; guides Q4 revs $1.313-1.338B Vs est $1.34B, adj EBITDA $533-558Mm Vs est $544.5Mm.
• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) Q4 adj EPS $1.76 Vs est $1.28 On revs $1.1B Vs est $978.16Mm; guides Q1 revs $975Mm – 1.025B Vs est $978.16B and adj EPS $1.40 at midpoint Of Range Vs est $1.28.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Q1 EPS $0.35 missed consensus $0.47; Q1 revs $5.02B vs. est. $5.8B; sees Q2 EPS $0.46-$0.54 below consensus $0.62 on revs $10.0B-$11.0B above consensus $7.93B; sees FY26 revenue at least $36B, vs. consensus $32.2B.
• Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google and cybersecurity company Wiz cleared a key hurdle to closing their $32 billion deal, with the US government saying it would wrap up its investigation of the acquisition