Closing Recap

Thursday, November 06, 2025

U.S. stocks spent most of the day in negative territory as the tech heavy Nasdaq fell as much as -2%, while S&P 500 futures (Spuz) dropped more than -1.2%, taking out the prior day lows in a trend of making lower lows the last few days, and pushed back near lows into the close. Wall Street’s main indexes were pressured as technology stocks came under fresh selling pressure (similar to Tuesday), while U.S. tariff concerns and uncertainty around the health of the economy kept investors on edge. Valuation concerns in AI/tech have gotten louder in recent weeks after major averages record more than 6-month gains after October closed higher, led by tech and AI related sectors. Shares of MSFT fell for an 8^th straight day and NVDA also saw additional selling pressure. Treasury yields fell, gold was little changed, oil slipped, but off worst levels and crypto assets declined again.

Meanwhile, the longest U.S. government shutdown in history has led to investors and the Federal Reserve flying blind ahead of the next rate decision and reliant on mixed private sector indicators. Today, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said layoffs announced by U.S. employers surged in October, marking the highest level for the month in 22 years (which followed better ADP private payroll data Wednesday). The U.S. formalized changes to reciprocal tariff rates with China in a government posting, a day after the Supreme Court raised doubts over the legality of the duties. President Trump said will need a game plan if Supreme Court case on tariffs does not go well, can do other things, but they are slow in comparison; says there are no new tariff announcements coming.

In Sentiment data: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 90.06 from last week’s 52 week hi of 100.83 – prior 2025 hi of 99.30 from 7/3 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q3) of 86.63. 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +1.7% vs +7.1% last week. Bulls fall to 38%, from 44%, Neutrals Rise to 25.8% from 19.1%, Bears drop to 36.3% from 36.9%.

• Oil prices ended lower, falling back-to-back days with WTI crude slipping -$0.17 or 0.29% to settle at $59.43 per barrel and Brent falling -$0.14 or 0.22% to settle at $63.38 per barrel as investors considered a potential supply glut, as well as weakened demand in the United States following bearish inventory oil data this week. Global oil prices fell for a third straight month in October on fears of oversupply after OPEC+ raised output while production from non-OPEC producers is also still growing.
• U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a seven-month high, rising 12.5 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $4.357 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms injected 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 31.
• Treasury yields and the dollar fall as the Challenger report indicates that firing increased substantially last month. Economists surveyed by WSJ forecast a net reduction of 60,000 jobs in October, with 4.5% unemployment rate, but the payrolls report won’t be published tomorrow. The University of Michigan sentiment index is expected to inch lower to 53 from 55. Odds of a Fed cut keep hovering around 70%, on the CME’s FedWatch tool. The 10-year falls 0.064 percentage point to 4.092%.

• Ford (F) executives are in active discussions about scrapping the electric version of its F-150 pickup, according to people familiar with the matter, which would make the money-losing truck America’s first major EV casualty – WSJ reported this afternoon.
• KMX shares fell after terminated its chief executive Bill Nash, the company said in a regulatory filing who had served as CEO of CarMax since 2016, and issued prelim Q3 results as sees EPS $0.18-$0.36 below the $0.69 estimate and forecasts comparable store used unit sales to fall 8% to 12%.
• TSLA shares fell ahead of its annual shareholder meeting which begins at 4 P.M. ET and shareholders will vote on several matters, including a proposal for a pay plan to give CEO Elon Musk as much as $1 trillion. The pay package requires Tesla to Achieve a Number of profit and operational milestones such as delivering 20M Vehicles over the next 10 years and having a million robotaxis in operation on roads.
• XPEV shares jumped after saying it will team up with BABA digital mapping arm Amap to launch robotaxi service, the two companies announced. Xpeng said earlier in the day that it will roll out three self-developed robotaxi models and start trial operations in 2026.

• Restaurants: PZZA lowers FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $190M-$200M from $200M-$220M and cut its FY25 system-wide sales view to up 1%-2% from up 2%-5%. BROS ’25 top line guidance metrics were raised, including total revenue of $1.61-1.615B (from $1.59-1.60B) supported by same store sales of ~5% (from ~4.5%), while adj EBITDA of $285-290MM was reiterated.
• In Beauty/Cosmetics: ELF tumbles after the cosmetics company reported weaker than expected Q2 results as adjusted EBITDA of $66.2M was ahead of a $60.0M Street figure, but sales of $343.9M fell well short of consensus expectations of $365.8M and guided FY25 sales of $1.55B-$1.57B, well below a Street figure of $1.65B, while COTY reported mixed results for Q3.
• In Consumer Staples: In beverages, CELH shares fall despite top and bottom line Q3 beat as warned they expect inventory movements to impact future results. CELH said, "as we transition a large portion of the Alani Nu business into our largest distributor, inventory movements will affect reported results.”
• Food Processing: Barclays downgraded INGR to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $124, down from $168 saying while the company’s primary Texture and Healthful Solutions segment continue to post solid volume and profit growth, it has increased caution around its Food and Industrial Ingredients unit in both Latin America and the U.S. The firm upgraded BG to Overweight from Equal Weight (tgt to $120 from $105) saying dilution from the Viterra merger is less than feared. Barclays is now confident in Bunge’s ability to drive better mid-cycle earnings. It sees the stock outperforming peers in 2026 amid additional vertical integration benefits.

• In Casino & Gaming: ESPN and DKNG announced an agreement naming DraftKings the exclusive official sportsbook and odds provider of ESPN, effective Dec. 1. DraftKings will power sportsbook and fantasy features directly inside the ESPN app. The move comes after earlier; PENN and ESPN mutually agree to early termination of U.S. Online Sports betting agreement in Q4. ESPN will retain vested warrants to purchase 7.9M shares with weighted strike price of $28.95. PENN also reported Q3 results. GDEN to be acquired by Blake Sartini and enter into sale-leaseback transaction with VICI in deal valued at $30.00, 41% premium to closing price on November 5 and VICI will assume up to $426M of debt.

• In Utilities: PEG was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies citing valuation for the upgrade, saying PSEG is the worst-performing non-California utility stock in 2025. Investor concerns of rate freezes and regulatory headwinds ignore probable storage investment alignment. SO downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Goldman Sachs due to increased regulatory uncertainty limiting valuation upside.
• In Oil E&P: COP Q3 Adj. EPS $1.61 vs. est. $1.41, sees FY26 capital expenditures $12B, quarterly dividend raised 8%, sees FY26 operating costs $10.2B and underlying production growth 0–2%; APA reported adj EBITDA of $1.35B, above consensus of $1.19B as production was 4% above estimate and hedged gas realizations surprised and TALO reported adj EBITDA of $301m, above consensus of $259m while production was 3% above our estimate on new wells and quiet storm season.

• In Insurance: BHF shares jumped after Aquarian Capital agreed to acquire Brighthouse Financial in a deal valued at $4.1B, with BHF shareholders to receive $70 per share. ALL Q3 operating EPS of $11.17 represented a material beat to Street consensus of $7.29.

• GNL reported 3Q25 AFFO/share that beat cons. (+$0.04/share), which was driven by higher property NOI and lower interest expense that led mgmt. to raise its FY25 AFFO/share guidance MP by 2.1%.
• RLJ reported a 3Q Adj. EBITDA/FFO beat but decreased ’25 Adj. EBITDA guidance by ~6% at the midpoint, or ~1% below the low end of the prior range, which management informally guided to on the 2Q call.
• SBRA’s 3Q25 NFFO missed cons., but management reaffirmed ’25 NFFO guidance.
• SMA reported a 3Q miss, including ~$0.02/share in higher G&A from pre-IPO LTIPs and a setback from an industrial tenant default. Additionally, the same store growth outlook was revised down slightly.
• TRNO reported 3Q25 FFO of $0.67/share, beating consensus/KBCM. It appears non-cash revenue contributed to the beat, likely due to leasing and ~$473M of 3Q acquisitions. SSNOI growth was 6.9% y/y (-70 bps vs. 2Q), likely in line with expectations.

• BIIB was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel and raise PT from $144 to $202 as risk/reward shifting favorably saying shares can trade higher during the next ~12 months via a narrative shift in Alzheimer’s.
• BHVN and QURE shares bounced after tumbling this week as yesterday, Senators Rick Scott (R-FL) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced their intention to hold a hearing to examine FDA’s treatment authorization process for rare diseases.
• JAZZ reported highest quarter of revenue to date driving a slight topline beat ($1.13B vs. FactSet est. $1.11B) and narrowed FY25 guidance.
• JNJ won U.S. FDA approval to sell the antipsychotic drug Caplyta as a treatment for depression. Caplyta, acquired in J&J’s $14.6 billion deal for Intra-Cellular Therapies earlier this year, is now cleared for the roughly 22 million people in the U.S. with major depressive disorder.
• LLY said it will start late-stage trials of its experimental obesity drug next month after it helped patients lose as much as 20.1% of their weight in a mid-stage trial. The experimental once-weekly drug, eloralintide, belongs to the class of drugs that mimic the pancreatic hormone amylin which slows digestion and suppresses hunger (competitors in amylin drugs include ZELA, ABBV, RHHBY).
• MTSR rises after Reuters reported PFE plans to sweeten its bid for Metsera, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters, after a judge denied its request to block rival drugmaker NVO $10B offer for the Biotech company.
• PRGO was downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan (tgt to $20 from $32) after earnings, citing increased uncertainty for the business in the near term over the next 6-12 months. This includes the company’s infant Formula business along with uncertainty on broader OTC market trends.
• URGN rises after results earlier and after receives FDA agreement on NDA submission strategy in Recurrent LG-IR-NMIBC based on UTOPIA Trial.

• In Ortho: ZBH was downgrade to Neutral at JP Morgan saying they view results as a step backwards with yet another quarter that has resulted in numbers moving lower due to a mismatch between management guidance/expectation setting and the underlying business trends.
• In Healthcare Facilities: ACHC shares fell as 3Q EBITDA missed by 3% driven by to softer SS vols, modest pressure on SS pricing from payor denials, and higher med mal costs. EBITDA guidance was reduced by 5% and implies a 4Q midpoint of $146M (vs. Street at $167M).

• In Aerospace & Defense: rough day for the air taxi/drone space, as RDW and JOBY shares both pulled back following earnings results overnight; VOYG shares declined after announces $300M convertible senior notes offering; even gov’t IT service defense names BAH, CACI, PSN, SAIC saw weakness.

• In Chemicals: APD shares jumped on better Q3 results (EPS $3.39/$3.17B vs. $3.08/$3.08B) and upward guidance as sees FY26 adjusted EPS view $12.85-$13.15, consensus $12.88, while expects to reduce its CAPEX to roughly $2.5B per year following the completion of several large projects. DD forecasts downbeat Q4 adjusted EPS reflecting planned spinoff of its Qnity electronics unit and Aramids business divestiture after a Q3 beat while lowers FY25 revenue view to $6.84B from $6.87B vs. consensus $6.87B/announces new share repurchase authorization of up to $2B of stock. SMG upgraded to Buy at Stifel.

• In Satellite/Telecom: SATS agrees to sell full unpaired AWS-3 spectrum license Portfolio to SpaceX. Agreement with SpaceX to sell the company’s unpaired AWS-3 licenses for approximately $2.6B in SpaceX stock valued as of Sept 2025.
• In Online Services: DUOL shares tumble after a weak Q4 bookings forecast as the company provided issuance of below-Street guidance on both Bookings and EBITDA, with the company citing a near-term desire to focus more on user growth than on monetization.
• In Optical sector: COHR the latest to report better results (LITE yesterday) after posted upside results including record sales, guided up for the December quarter while Datacenter sales, which were at record levels, are expected to grow 10% in F2Q26.

• HUBS delivered another solid quarter, with CC revenue growth of 18% and EBIT margin of 20%, but shares fell as Q4 outlook and exit growth rate left Investors questioning the potential path and timeline for a return to 20% constant currency growth.
• KVYO Q3 results showed total revenue growth of 32% Y/y, 7,000 net new customer adds, a record 272 $50K+ net adds, and 43% Y/y International revenue growth; Initial commentary for 2026 is for 21-22% growth, which is in line with consensus expectations, but a decline from the 32.8% trailing 12 months.
• PTC delivered a solid finish to the year with relatively in-line results. FY/26 guidance came in modest light on the top-line, but importantly FCF came in at the $1B mark.
• QTWO delivered a strong Q2 beat and raise and offered an initial FY26 guide, which came in well ahead of expectations on the bottom line.

• Reuters reported that Ai startup Vast Data has signed a $1.17B Commercial agreement with Cloud provider CRWV, extending their existing partnership as demand for infrastructure that powers artificial Intelligence Systems grows, the company told Reuters. Under the agreement, Coreweave will use Vast as the primary data Platform for its Cloud infrastructure, which provides customers with access to graphics processing units (GPUs) for training and running Ai models
• GOOGL said to be rolling out 7th gen of its AI chip; Google said it’s making Ironwood, the company’s most powerful chip yet, widely available in the coming weeks. Ironwood, the seventh Generation of Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), was initially introduced in April for testing. Google says it’s more than four Times faster than its predecessor – CNBC
• STGW shares rose after announced a partnership with PLTR centered around an Ai-driven Platform for marketers that will bring the full power of data and Ai together to increase marketing ROI.
• CRWV, NBIS were the two largest additions to the MSCI World Index measured by full company market capitalization after MSCI adds 69 companies and removes 64 from Global index review.

• AMSC shares tumbled after results and guidance.
• AOSL was downgraded Alpha & Omega to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $24, down from $40. The company’s fiscal Q1 results were "mixed" and its Q2 guidance is materially below consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Alpha & Omega’s artificial intelligence "seems on hold for a quarter or so." Riley believes a major part of the stock’s positive thesis is now "dented." It also has concerns about Alpha & Omega’s path back to profitability
• ARM posted strong FQ2 (Sep) results and guided FQ3 (Dec) higher, as both royalties and licensing beat expectations. Royalty growth was driven by smartphones, where Arm benefited from higher CSS shipments, as well as increased Armv9 shipments.
• MKSI reported 3Q EPS of $1.93 vs. consensus $1.85 and revs $988M vs. est. $968M while Q4 guide came in above consensus on nearly all metrics but gross margin, and EPS was guided notably higher than most other operating metrics.
• QCOM posted strong F4Q (Sep) results and F1Q (Dec) guidance, which exceeded expectations, as both QCT/QTL upside. Upside was driven by stronger Handset revs given healthy Android demand driven by QCOM’s latest gen AP Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 and lower share loss to AAPL
• SMCI upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus saying missteps by the company on revenue delivery and margin shortfalls are fully reflected in the share price, while the potential for strong forward momentum is being overlooked.