Closing Recap

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

U.S. stock markets recovered from morning declines as strength in Healthcare (XLV), Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) helped offset weakness in Technology (XLK) as concerns around elevated technology valuations resurfaced. Markets are also closely watching progress toward the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Shares of semiconductors, AI related plays, neocloud and data center names were the drag in markets as the Nasdaq lagged but pared losses midday. Nvidia shares after SoftBank Group disclosed that it had offloaded its shares in the company for $5.83 billion. So, for a change, we saw strength in energy stocks amid a jump in oil prices, led by XOM, BP, SHEL hitting their best levels of the year, while Biotech (IBB, XBI) has pushed higher the last few months with IBB rising for the 4th time in 5 days to best levels since November 2021 and the XBI rises over 3.5% above $114. Healthcare overall saw the biggest gains, rising over 2% with new record highs for Eli Lilly. The US dollar dipped on concerns about weakness in the U.S. labor market after a report showed ADP private employers cutting jobs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, rising over 1% or 500 points led by consumer and healthcare names (MRK, MCD, AMGN, JNJ, NKE) to close at a record high.

Investors still awaiting for government: The U.S. Senate passed a deal on Monday that would restore federal funding after the longest shutdown on record, which has disrupted food benefits, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid, impacted air traffic and delayed the release of government economic data. The deal still needs approval from the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has said he wants a vote as soon as Wednesday, before being sent to President Trump to sign into law. Assuming the government reopens before the end of the week, Goldman Sachs said they figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics will put out an updated schedule of releases in the early part of next week.

Ai/Data Center/Power stocks were a drag today. The weakness came after results from neocloud related names CRWV (shares fell after cutting rev outlook on delays with a key data center partner) and NBIS (posted rev miss, META $3B deal and 25M ATM issuance), while both noted strong demand for AI cloud technology remains robust across generations of GPUs. However, a little concern for time being in the space as, @zerohedge noted, “AI trapped: cut capex and stock plunges as market reads into mgmt not seeing growth opportunities; hike capex and debt slides/CDS spikes as FCF no longer covers capex and future debt issuance will soar.” @zerohedge also noted, “Oracle Is First AI Domino To Drop After Barclays Downgrades Its Debt To Sell.” Recall famed “Big Short” investor Michael Burry recently revealed short calls in shares of PLTR and NVDA and raised overstated earnings fears for big tech on recent post on “X” on Monday 11/10. Burry had said, “Understating depreciation by extending useful Life of assets artificially boosts earnings -one of the more common frauds of the modern Era. Massively ramping CAPEX through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product Cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute Equipment. Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By My estimates they will understate depreciation by $176B 2026-2028. By 2028, ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, Meta by 20.8%, etc. But it gets worse. More detail coming November 25th. Stay tuned.”

• U.S. NFIB Small Business Outlook index fell -0.7% to 98.2 in October, following a -2.0% drop in September to 98.9, but gains in the prior two months of 0.5% to 100.8 in August and of 1.7% to 100.3 in July.

• December gold slipped -$5.70 or 0.13% to settle at $4,116.30 an ounce (down from earlier highs $4,155).
• The US dollar index (DXY) slipped amid concerns about the deteriorating U.S. labor market after a report showed that private employers cut jobs last month. ADP Research said that its preliminary estimates show that private employers shed an average of -11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending October 25
• U.S. natural gas futures rose 5%, extending gains to an eight-month high, as traders bet on another round of cold weather in December and firmer power demand.
• Oil prices gained with WTI crude up $0.91 or 1.51% to settle at $61.04 per barrel and Brent crude gained $1.10 or 1.72% to settle at $65.16 per barrel. Front-month gas futures for December delivery were up 22.7 cents, or 5.23%, at $4.56 per million British thermal units, its highest since March 11 amid colder weather across the East

• TM planned buyout of group firm Toyota Industries is set to face more hurdles after activist investor Elliott Investment said it had bought a significant stake in the company. Elliott said in a statement that the proposed deal undervalued the company, lacked transparency and fell short of proper governance practice
• XPEV shares advanced a second day amid growing optimism over the Chinese electric carmaker’s progress in technologies including humanoid robots; positive sentiment in the stock was also helped by the upcoming launch of the ID.UNYX 08 car model, the first one built in collaboration with Volkswagen.
• Piper initiated coverage of Chinese automakers: XIACY, LI, BYDDY, ZJLMF, all of which have global Ambitions. Among these, Piper’s favorite is Overweight-rated Xiaomi (1810-HK), followed by Leapmotor (9863-HK). Piper prefers Neutral ratings for BYD and Li Auto. Undeniably, China’s Auto market faces cutthroat competition and Extreme policy risk. But Piper thinks some Chinese automakers have a distinct advantage over their global peers, namely: Electronics Self-reliance.

• Hardlines/Broadlines: Keybanc issued a Q3 Mass/Dollar Preview saying ahead of Q3 earnings, the firm sees mixed results, with strength at WMT, FIVE, DG, DLTR, and OLLI with softer trends at TGT. The consumer spending backdrop remains K-shaped, driven by the Wealth effect for the high-end consumers as middle-/lower-income consumers face elevated Living costs. Keybanc sees most of the group benefiting from trade-down, but it remains most positive on WMT and OLLI, which it believes are best positioned.
• In Consumer Products: EL was upgraded to Buy at Argus saying to attract more customers, new management has increased Innovation significantly and is entering such new channels as Amazon Premium Beauty, Sephora, and Ulta.

• In Energy: Reuters reported that SHEL has challenged its defeat in an arbitration case against U.S. liquefied Natural gas producer VG in the New York Supreme Court, a legal filing seen by Reuters shows, weeks after rival BP won a similar $1B-plus arbitration. Both arbitration cases were over Venture Global’s failure to deliver liquefied Natural gas under long-term contracts while selling on the spot market as prices soared after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
• Energy stocks jumped alongside a bounce in oil prices as newswires reported the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, although oversupply concerns limited gains. In news, OXY beat Q3 profit estimates as higher production helped the U.S. shale producer counter weaker oil prices; SOC shares advanced after the Washington Post reported the Trump administration is drafting a plan to resume offshore oil drilling along California’s coast for the first time in decades. Broad strength early in oil complex with refiners, majors, equipment, drillers and E&P names edging higher.

• In Crypto: CLSK shares slipped after announced pricing private offering of $1.15B 0% convert bonds due 2032 with size increased from $1B; initial conversion price set at $19.16, 27.5% above prior close of $15.03; plans to use net offering proceeds to expand its power and land portfolio, develop data center infrastructure. GEMI shares slipped on results as Q3 revs beat, Card growth accelerated with 115k open card accounts but saw worsening EBITDA margins as expenses remain elevated. ETOR was upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank after reported a top-line driven Adj EBITDA beat of $78M, as Crypto strength more than offset lower ECC take rates. WULF reported mostly in-line Q3 revs and Ebitda as lower than expected mining revenues were offset by higher HPC revenues.
• In Lending: SOFI announced the launch of Sofi Crypto, becoming the first and only nationally chartered Bank where consumers can Bank, borrow, invest — and now buy, sell and hold crypto — all in one Place and on a Platform they Trust. @KobeissiLetter tweets: "US consumer delinquencies are surging: 3.0% of Auto loans transitioned into 90+ days delinquency in Q3 2025, the highest in 15 years. At the same time, 7.1% of credit Card debt became seriously delinquent, near the highest in 14 years. Student loan serious delinquencies spiked +13.5 percentage points YoY, to 14.3%, an all-time high. This followed the expiration of the student loan relief period, as missed payments began reappearing on credit reports." (auto lender companies include ALLY, SYF, credit cards V, MA, COF, AXP student loans SLM, NAVI).

• ARCT reported Q3 earnings and provided a comprehensive update across their ARCT-032 Cf and ARCT-810 OTC deficiency programs. Specifically, detailed Cohort 3 (QD 15 mg) in ARCT-032’s Ph2 LunairCF is enrolling up-to n=6 Cf patients with initiation of a 12-week study in up-to n=20 Cf patients in 1H26.
• ENGN shares jumped; said its localized gene therapy induced a complete response in 62% of patients with a type of bladder cancer, measured at six months. The company plans to report 12-month data in the second half of next year, and if positive, seek regulatory approvals.
• NBIX announced that their signal-seeking Ph2 for NBI-‘770 in major depressive disorder (MDD) failed to meet its primary endpoint, which looked at the change in total Montgomery Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) score at Day 5 versus baseline (n=73; 3 dosing arms/1 placebo arm).
• NTLA was downgraded from Outperform to In Line at Evercore saying there’s definitely still a path to value here, but it’s narrow, and will require further clarity on the ATTR program… and there’s unfortunately no sense for when that might come.
• SLNO announces $100M accelerated share repurchase agreement.
• VOR shares tumbled after selling 10M shares of stock at $10.00, 46.8% below stock’s last close of $18.80 and said intends to use net offering proceeds to advance clinical development for its drug, Telitacicept.

• SRDX shares surged after Private equity firm GTCR can move forward with its acquisition of the Medical device coatings maker, a federal judge in Chicago ruled on Monday, rejecting the U.S. FTC’s bid to block the deal.

• BA delivered 13 widebodies, including 7 Dreamliners, in October and recorded 15 new orders while cancelling 7 others; has sent out 493 Aircraft so far this year, with 370 being from the 737 series. The company also received 836 new orders and Made 847 net sales up until October 31.
• RKLB posted 3Q results and 4Q guidance above the Street, with revenue above the high-end of its previous guidance, and up 48% y/y. Electron had another solid quarter, with 17 launches added to backlog (~$145M), ASPs trending higher, 4 launches completed in 3Q (16 to date) and 20+ on track in 2025.
• SARO reported better results with Q3 EPS $0.20 vs est $0.20, adj EBITDA $195.6Mm vs est $189.63Mm on revs $1.498B vs est $1.422B as top-line strength was driven by the ES segment (LEAP revenues up 2x sequentially, BJ up 28%) and the CRS segment margins were strong; also raised guidance.
• VSAT was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan an raised tgt to $50 from $23 saying they see a higher likelihood of a separation of the Defense and Advanced Technologies (DAT) segment, with CFO Chase acknowledging that the company is evaluating “value-accretive opportunities,” including a potential separation of the government and commercial businesses.

• In Transports (ODFL, CMI, PCAR, WNC, SAIA): Freight waves reported Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers, the world’s largest auctioneer of heavy Equipment and trucks has released sales data that paints a challenging picture for the U.S. trucking industry, as Carriers navigate through a weak rate environment and economic uncertainty. Three-year-old 53′ dry van trailer prices peaked at $48,000 in 2021; now they’re going for less than $20,000. Trailer transaction volume has been driven by bankruptcies, like Yellow. FDX and UPS shares jumped this afternoon following an FDX presentation at a conference saying they see sequential improvement from Q1 to Q2, and y/y improvement as well.
• In Metals & Mining: CENX shares tumbled, pressured all day, after top holder Glencore (GLNCY) unloaded 9 mln shares in block trade at $30.65, which generated about $276 mln gross proceeds (prior to deal, Glencore held 40.6M shares).

• CRWV shares fell as reported a narrower-than-expected Q3 EPS loss (-$0.22) vs. est. loss (-$0.51) on better revs of $1.36B with record backlog to more than $55B but cuts FY25 revenue view to $5.05B-$5.15B from $5.15B-$5.35B (vs. est. $5.29B) saying it faced delays with a key data center partner.
• GOOGL said that it will invest 5.5 billion euros ($6.41 billion) in Germany in the coming years in a push to expand its infrastructure and data centre capacity in Europe’s largest economy. The plans include a new data centre in Dietzenbach, close to Frankfurt, Google said.
• NBIS reported Q3 revs $146.1M vs est. $155.1M, announced a new agreement to deliver Ai infrastructure to META valued at about $3B over 5 years, said it will be putting in place ATM equity program for up to 25M Class A shares; expects to have over 2.5gw of contracted power by end of 2026 and that they believe can achieve annualized run-rate revs of $7B-$9B by 2026-end; said sold out of available capacity in Q3.
• NVDA shares slipped after Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself but was a necessary financing measure.

• In Software: ORCL shares fell over -4% below $230, down -12.5% this month so far and down over 33% from record highs of $345.72 on Sept 10^th; SONY raised its operating profit forecast for the year by 8% to 1.43 trillion yen ($9.5 billion) citing a smaller-than-expected impact from U.S. tariffs and the strength of its entertainment and chips businesses. PUBM shares jumped after the company reported a Q3 beat and issued a solid outlook for Q4.
• Online Services: CHGG posted slightly better Q3 results and lower Q4 revenue outlook and also announced a strategic shift, led by the return of Dan Rosensweig as CEO, toward skilling and is restructuring the business into Chegg Skilling and legacy academic Services.
• In Quantum: RGTI shares fell following earnings results overnight; POET and QUBT announced a strategic collaboration to develop 400G/Lane thin-film lithium niobate modulator-based 3.2Tbps engines that will be designed to lead the next era of computing.
• In Semiconductors: AMD held its Analyst Day today, as CEO predicts data center market to grow to $1 trillion by 2030; said the company is on track for tens of billions in AI data center revenue by 2027 and expects a double-digit market share.  INTC’s Chief Technology and AI Officer has left the company to take a role at OpenAI, where he’ll work on the startup’s infrastructure efforts. SWKS and QRVO were both upgraded to Neutral at Mizuho (SWKS tgt to $73 from $65) following their merger announcement, as the deal  provides some valuation synergies, offset by broader handset headwinds.