Closing Recap

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

U.S. stocks finish mixed, following similar pattern for weeks with overnight strength, pulling back on the open for an hour or so before investors find a comfortable level to buy the dip and push major averages higher. After posting a rare weekly loss for major averages last week (including a -3% drop for the Nasdaq, biggest weekly drop since May), stocks are higher this week as the S&P 500 posted its 4^th straight day of gains as Wall Street awaits tonight’s vote in the House to reopen the government. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were choppy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its first close above the 48,000 level, rising over 300 points amid gains in Healthcare and Financial stocks, two sectors that have seen massive upside momentum over the last few weeks…November has been all about rotation. The AI/Data Center/neocloud names that have rallied for months on end have seen some profit taking in recent days on valuation concerns. Standouts today included strength in both industrial and precious metals as gold ripped, several large cap banks hit 52-week highs, energy declined with a sharp reversal in oil prices lower, retailers outperformed along with dining and travel amid expectations the government will reopen after a House vote this evening.

U.S. House majority leader Scalise said on CNBC this morning the House is to vote on Bill to end shutdown on Wednesday at around 7 P.M. et. If approved and signed into law, the government could reopen by Friday, with the release of official economic data resuming gradually thereafter. Recall softer private payroll ADP jobs data on Tuesday prompted traders to price in a higher chance of rate cut in December. Only the September Consumer Price Index report was published during the government economic data blackout that started on October 1. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to be released at 8:30 am et. tomorrow, but the data remains delayed due to the extended government shutdown. September employment report could be released as early as next week, while the shutdown could cause gaps in October’s economic reports.

• Oil prices tumbled, erasing all of the prior day gains as WTI crude oil futures declined -$2.55 or 4.18% to settle at $58.49 per barrel while Brent crude fell -$2.45 or 3.76% to settle at $62.71 after an OPEC report showed the world oil market will see a small surplus in 2026 after OPEC+ production increases and higher supply from other producers, a further shift from its earlier projections of a deficit.
• US Treasury yields continue fall, as 10-year yield was down -4.5 bps at 4.065%, lowest levels of the month and roughly down 10-bps from monthly highs as markets await key economic data potentially next week as long as the House passes the CR bill overnight. The dollar index (DXY) was little changed at 99.50.
• Coffee prices at the ICE exchange fell as much as 6% on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Americans would see "substantial announcements" in coming days aimed at lowering the prices of products like Coffee, bananas and other items not farmed in the U.S. Arabica Coffee futures settled down 22.65 cents, or 5.7%, at $3.7665 per lb. on Wednesday.

• Barclay’s launches coverage on Auto Retail with a Neutral view and initiates coverage on 12 stocks across overall with six OW-ratings (AN, CVNA, GPI, KAR, LAD, PAG), four EW-ratings (ABG, ACVA, LKQ, SAH) and two Underweight- ratings (CPRT, KMX). Overall, a constructive on the dealers which have demonstrated resiliency through economic cycles, expecting earnings growth in 2026 and constructive on the growth outlook for digital auction marketplaces, which he expects to gain share from physical auctions. Fundamentals are mixed, but sees opportunities among dealers (Overweight AN, GPI, LAD, PAG) and like the growth trajectory for CVNA and Digital auction player KAR.

• In Furnishing: Wayfair (W) price tgt raised to $144 from $100 at Oppenheimer saying the unique and highly leverageable Wayfair business model remains in the early stages of positive inflection, and the shares continue to enjoy significant room to run. BBWI was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James saying while believes there is low-hanging fruit to improve Digital capabilities, product, and distribution, it expects this will take time to take form.
• In Restaurants: BRCB shares fell as reported impressive 3Q comps, up 10.8%, supported by strong 6.1% traffic growth and sees October comps up 8.7%, but total revenue growth was more muted than anticipated due to the later timing of new store openings within the quarter. Citigroup added a 90-day upside catalyst watch for both CAVA and SG saying they expect sales to improve off lows as the US government likely reopens in the coming weeks.

• The Department of Energy’s statistical arm (EIA) said it expects U.S. oil output to average 13.6 million barrels per day both this year and in 2026, up from its prior forecast of 13.5 million bpd in both years. The agency said the revision was due to higher-than-expected output in August. Oil output averaged 13.2 bpd last year, which was the prior record.
• In Solar: FTCI shares jumped on smaller than expected Q3 EPS loss (-$0.36) vs. est. loss (-$0.53); Q3 revs surge 157% y/y to $26.0M vs. est. $21.12M and sees Q4 revenue $30.0M-$35.0M above est. $26.89M.
• In Nuclear/Power: OKLO reported Q3 results that included higher than expected opex, but mgmt. and no revs again, but reiterated its 2025 guidance for cash used in operating activities of $65M-$80M; cash position increased to $1.2B due to raising $526M in net proceeds under its ATM.

• In Crypto: sector up overnight, but seeing pullback in Bitcoin (was above $105K this morning, now below $103K) and related crypto miners again, COIN said it is reincorporating in Texas and leaving Delaware whose legal climate is far friendlier to business; CRCL results topped estimates but shares fell – Q3 revs $740M vs. $700.5M; said the circulation of USDC more than doubled from a year earlier to $73.7B up 108% y/y; raises FY25 adj operating expenses view to $495M-$510M from $475M-$490M. FUFU said Q3 revs doubled thanks to demand for its specialized mining computers and Cloud-mining Services; Net Income totaled $11.6M, up from a loss of -$5M a year earlier.  WULF shares advanced after Anthropic announced a $50 billion investment in American computing infrastructure, building data centers with Fluidstack in Texas and New York, with more sites to come.
• Financial Services: BILL shares rose after Bloomberg reported the company is exploring a sale as it faces pressure from activist investor Starboard Value LP https://tinyurl.com/5fer5a3w ; AAPL announced the launch of Digital ID, which it calls "a new way for users to create an ID in Apple Wallet using information from their U.S. passport, and present it with the security and privacy of iPhone or Apple Watch.

• APAM preliminary assets under management as of October 31, 2025, totaled $182.6 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $88.5 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $94.1 billion.
• CNS preliminary assets under management of $90.6B as of October 31, 2025, a decrease of $312M from assets under management of $90.9B at September 30, 2025. The decrease was due to market depreciation of $1.3B and distributions of $150M, partially offset by net inflows of $1.1B.
• IVZ said preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $2,166.6B, an increase of 2.0% versus previous month-end; delivered net long-term inflows of $8.0B in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows was $6.6B and money market net inflows were $11.1B.
• LAZ preliminary assets under management as of October 31, 2025, totaled approximately $267.8B. The month’s AUM included market appreciation of $6.9B, net outflows of $1.4B and FX depreciation of $2.2B.
• TROW preliminary October month-end assets under management of $1.79 trillion. Preliminary net outflows for October 2025 were $5.9 billion.
• VCTR total Assets Under Management (AUM) of $313.0 billion, other assets of $2.8B, and total client assets of $315.8B, as of October 31, 2025. For the month of October, Average Total AUM was $311.8B.

• The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that Richard Pazdur, M.D., a 26-year veteran of the FDA, has been appointed director of the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER).
• RBC Capital said they see this changes as a net win for the sector and for U.S. Healthcare overall. RBC said expects him to further embrace forward-looking Innovative approaches to bring promising Medicines to patients as soon as practicable and also sees a low likelihood of controversies or negative headlines that in recent months may have spooked some Healthcare investors.
• ALKS said its experimental drug, alixorexton, met main goal in mid-stage study, as the once-daily treatment met the dual primary endpoints in treatment of Narcolepsy type 1 and 2, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements from baseline compared to placebo.
• LLY hit a new all-time high, topping the $1,000 per share level for the first time.
• Handful of companies out with secondary offerings/raising cash: COGT 9.68M share Secondary, priced at $31.00; CNTA 11.63M share Spot Secondary, priced at $21.50; VOR 10M share Spot Secondary, priced at $10.00, and BHVN 23.3M share Spot Secondary, priced at $7.50; also, IONS announces $700M convertible senior notes offering.

• Medical Research: GRAL was upgraded to Buy from Neutral with $100 tgt at Guggenheim acknowledging that Galleri is not a perfect test but says it is still the leading commercially available MCED test.
• In Optical sector: ALC reported top-line growth in Q3, driven by strong acceleration in equipment, and reiterated its annual outlook, alleviating some investor concerns amid acquisition difficulties and higher U.S. tariffs (company had cut its net sales outlook in August due to tariff pressures).
• Medical Equipment: BAX cuts quarterly dividend to $0.01 from $0.17; TMO received 510(k) clearance from the FDA to market its EXENT system to aid in the diagnosis of multiple myeloma. The company’s EXENT system detects, and isotypes M-proteins, abnormal antibodies produced by cancerous plasma cells. STXS reported Q3 results and provided Q4 guidance that was in-line to slightly below expectations.
• Healthcare Services: Bloomberg reported LLY is dropping CVS drug benefit plan for its employees after CVS stopped covering its weight-loss drug in favor of a rival medication from NVO.

• In Aerospace & Defense: PSN announced that the company was awarded a position on the $15B Pacific Deterrence Initiative Multiple Award Construction Contract by the Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command; VVX announced the sale of 2.25M shares of its common stock on an underwritten basis by Vertex Aerospace

• In Media (NFLX, DIS, WBD, AMZN): the WSJ reported in recent weeks, the streaming platforms HBO Max, Hulu and Disney+ all hiked prices for at least some of their services. Netflix did so in January, Peacock unveiled increases in July, and Apple TV detailed its latest bump in August. Paramount said Monday it would raise the price of Paramount+ early next year. But article noted that despite the price hikes, households aren’t significantly recalibrating their subscription habits.
• In Quantum sector: IBM announces Quantum Nighthawk, a processor designed to work faster than classical computers. IBM believes Nighthawk could beat classical computers on some tasks by the end of next year claiming it delivers 30% more circuit complexity and moves closer to true quantum advantage. The quantum space overall weak as RGTI shares fall a 5th day, extending prior day decline post earnings while Quantum space has pulled back the last few weeks (IONQ, QBTS, QMCO, QUBT weak).
• In Software sector: CWAN weighs sale after receiving takeover interest. The maker of investment and accounting Software is working with advisers to weigh its options and solicit interest from prospective buyers, Bloomberg reported. https://tinyurl.com/muzy9uyn ; SMWB mixed Q3 as EPS $0.05 top est. $0.02 while revs $71.8M miss est. $71.95with better  cRPO growth of 13% (Citizens estimate 6%), and billings growth of 26% y/y (consensus 11%), and backs FY25 revenue view $285M-$288M, vs. est. $286.38M .
• In EDA Sector: SNPS said to terminate 10% of workforce in restructuring plan and estimates $300M-$350M in pre-tax charges.
• In AI/Data Centers: Anthropic said in a post to its corporate site: "Today, we are announcing a $50 billion investment in American computing infrastructure, building data centers with Fluidstack in Texas and New York, with more sites to come. More weakness today in neo cloud/data center names NBIS, CIFR, IREN. Comes on the heels of lower rev outlook from CRWV yesterday that sunk group and AI valuation fears.

• ICHR was upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $25 tgt saying after two hard resets (50:50 market/self-inflicted), margins at trough levels, and CEO change, the setup looks asymmetrically positive.