Closing Recap

Thursday, November 13, 2025

US equities slipped modestly overnight despite resolution of the long-running government shutdown. Perhaps investors now are reflecting caution over the next round of data releases and potential impact on the December Fed decision. We may never see some pieces of data, but we certainly should see some and must expect it to be impactful unless totally in line with expectations. Futures continued to fade into the open and that sentiment was reflected in today’s AAII bull-bear spread of -17.5% versus prior +1.7%. Bulls slipped from 38% to 31.6%, while bears climbed from 36.3% to 49.1%. That said, today’s Fear & Greed Index improved to 31/100 (Fear) from last week’s 18/100 (Extreme Fear) and last month’s 29/100 (Fear) so not all sentiment meters are declining. An hour into today’s session, markets had continued to soften, and early breadth favored decliners by 9:5 as small caps underperformed in a generally down day with IWM down over -1% vs. SPY (-0.64%) and QQQ (-0.93%). In early sector performance, Health Care, Energy, and Consumer Staples were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Consumer Discretionary, Utilities and Technology led the underperformers down around -1% this morning and explained the broad market weakness with four sectors gaining versus seven declining.

In data of note today, interesting in a FWIW kind of way that since Labor Day if you owned the Nasdaq 100 on Mondays, you’d be +11.5% but if you owned it only Tuesday through Friday, you’d be -4.5%, per @bespokeinvest. On trend reversal, also from @bespokeinvest, the equal-weighted S&P underperformed 16 of 23 trading days during October but has outperformed on 6 of 8 trading days in November. From @charliebilello, 2% inflation is a myth and while the October US inflation report was not released it was expected to show an overall CPI rise to 3.1%, the highest in 17 months. Another view of market concentration from @KobeissiLetter notes the S&P 100 to S&P 500 ratio is now at its highest in 22 years, at 0.50. The gain is said to mirror the rally of the 1990’s when the ratio rose to a near record of 0.55. At the current pace, it would take another year of top 100 outperformance to hit the 2000 peak.

Equities faded into the afternoon, entering the final hour of trading near the lows of the day as uncertainty and fear around upcoming data, the Fed and rates more than offset the end of the government shutdown. Breadth expanded to favoring decliners by 9:2 as small caps continued to underperform with IWM (-2.85%) versus SPY (-1.7%) and QQQ (-2.20%) and only three sectors remained in positive territory with Health Care (+0.25%), Consumer Staples (+0.14%) and Energy (+0.11%) leading among S&P sector ETFs, while Industrials (-1.52%), Consumer Discretionary (-2.34%) and Technology (-2.81%) lagged.

• December WTI crude gained overnight following the agreement to end the US government shutdown, but supply concerns lingered following an IEA boost to its forecast for a record global oil surplus next year. Supply estimates have been rising for the past six months as OPEC+ continues to expand production. Gains in the futures eased as the day progressed, especially following the EIA report on US crude stocks with a larger build than forecast. The December contract settled +$0.20/bbl, or +0.35%, at $58.69 and off the lows of the day as hopes build for an uptick in post-shutdown economic activity into the holidays.
• Bitcoin remains weak, falling below $100,000 this afternoon as investors extend selling pressure in riskier assets, and falling below the 98,898 low from 11/4, 98,943 low from 11/5. @bespokeinvest note, “Bitcoin is now at its lowest level since May 8th, in a 20%+ drawdown, back below $100k, and 2+ standard deviations below its 50-DMA. Rough stretch for the world’s biggest crypto.”
• The dollar index (DXY) slumped lower all day, ending around the 99 level down -0.5% as rate cut expectations by the Fed for December dwindle. Sterling advanced to 2-week highs vs. the US dollar at 1.32 as stocks declined. The euro meanwhile advanced as well above the greenback, climbing back above $1.16.

• In Discount/Dollar stores: DLTR was double downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman Sachs and cut tgt to $103 from $133 saying shares are now pricing in the company’s better fundamentals and upside from here gets harder amid concerns around the lower Income consumer and preference for other discounters with improving value propositions and strong merchandising (OLLI and FIVE).
• In Apparel/Footwear/Department Retail: NKE was upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo and raise tgt to $75 from $60 saying visibility into Nike’s sales and margins is finally improving and while the company has been in a negative estimate revision cycle for three years, this will reverse over the next 6-9 months. DDS shares surged after Q3 sales topped expectations ($1.47B vs. est. $1.44B) on better EPS helped by higher retail gross margin and stronger sales mix.
• In Specialty Retail: in mattresses sector (SGI, W, LEG, SNBR), Piper said strong sales continue in a seasonally slow month as the PSC Mattress Retailer survey for October (with ~15 retailers representing >600 stores) saw continued mean/median sales strength of +6.9%/+5.5% Y/Y. Notably, October represents the seventh consecutive month of positive Y/Y sales, as well as the fourth consecutive month of sales up +MSD to +HSD.

• In Cruise Sector (CCL, NCLH, RCL, VIK): Bank America said its aggregated credit and debit card data, monthly cruise spends in October increased +15.2% y/y compared to +9.0% in September, and the data declined -2% sequentially, which is lower than the 2015-2019 average of +2.5%. Even when looking at spend on a combined basis across September and October due to holiday shifts, cruise spend grew +12.0%.
• In Ride Hailing/Food Delivery: DASH was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush with a $260 price target saying DoorDash has retained a leading competitive position within the U.S. food and delivery market and continues to execute well across strategic initiatives as management positions the company for long-term sustainable growth.
• In Online Travel/Lodging: BKNG was upgraded to Outperform at Wedbush with $6,000 price target noting global travel demand was healthy relative to expectations this quarter, and Booking remains the best positioned OTA given the company’s global scale and diversification, strong liquidity and free cash flow conversion, and track record of successful execution across key strategic initiatives.

• In Aerospace & Defense: FLY shares rose after saying it plans to resume launches of its Alpha Rocket between late 2025 and early next year; also reported revenue for the Q3 that beat the average analyst estimate and sees 2025 FY revs between $150M-$158M vs. est. $135.5M. In drone space, ONDS shares rose as Q3 revs rise to $10.1M above ests $7M and more than same time last year; raised guidance to at least $36M from prior view $25M and issued new guidance of $110M for 2026.
• In Solar: CSIQ Q3 revenue of $1.5B topped consensus of $1.37B, supported by strong energy storage deliveries and a high module shipments to profitable markets; said demand for energy storage continues to grow, driven by emerging applications such as data centers; did guide Q4 revs $1.3B-1.5B vs. est. $1.6B.
• In Energy related sector: APA shares jumped late this morning after Bloomberg reported that Repsol is weighing merger of upstream unit with APA Corp, and Repsol is also holding talks with other potential partners and considering other options, sources told Bloomberg.

• In Payments: DLO shares fell initially on earnings results, despite Q3 adj EBITDA $71.7Mm topping est $66.84Mm on revs $282Mm vs est $255.4Mm; PAYS Q3 adj EPS $0.08 vs. est. $0.04 and revs $21.6M vs. est. $19.92M; Q3 adj EBITDA reached a new high of $5.0M, up 78.1%, vs. est. $4.6M, while net income improved by a healthy 54.2% to $2.2M; Raises FY25 revenue view to $80.5M-$81.5M from $76.5M-$78.5M.
• In Lending: shares of FNMA, FMCC were both notably lower at levels last seen in late July after last night’s Wall Street CEO dinner at the WH with President Trump, Treas. Secretary Bessent, etc. while FHFA Dir. Bill Pulte was notably not in attendance. Nevertheless, there is a chance that talk of Trump’s proposed 50-year mortgage (Hassett mentioned it was being looked at this morning) was brought up.

• BNTX shares slumped after Bloomberg reported PFE is looking to sell its remaining stake in the company by offering about 4.55 million ADRs via an overnight block trade at $108 to $111.70 per share. https://tinyurl.com/nbjtjjwt
• DAWN agreed to buy MRSN for $25 per share plus one non-tradable CVR per share to receive certain potential milestone payments of up to an aggregate of $30.25 per CVR for total consideration of up to $55.25 per share in cash, in deal valued at $129M at closing, but potentially worth $285M.
• KRRO tumbles after saying its experimental drug, KRRO-110, for a rare lung and liver disease failed to reach expected levels, and also paused its licensing deal with NVO, prompting downgraded by several Wall Street analysts today and slashing price targets.
• MGRX said it has partnered with LLY and NVO to sell their blockbuster weight-loss drugs through its platform/launched MangoRx Direct and PeachesRx Direct programs, through which these branded GLP-1 medications will be made available. Late afternoon, Novo and Lilly said they do not have a weight-loss drug partnership with Mangoceuticals, reversing the earlier gains and sending shares sharply lower.

• In Eyecare sector: BLCO laid out its growth plans for the next three years to drive sales and profit through 2028 saying it is targeting 5-7% constant currency revenue CAGR through 2028, driven by base business and recent product launches and is targeting approximately 23% adj EBITDA margin in 2028 and double-digit adj EPS growth (ex IPR&D).
• In Medical Devices: COO was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo saying with growth in the contact lens market decelerating, the co is less likely to outperform the market and expects the company is issue a more conservative FY26 guidance when reporting in December.
• Handful of companies out with secondary offerings/raising cash: BNTX 4.553M share Block Trade, priced at $108.00, ANNX 25.1M share Spot Secondary, priced at $2.60, CTEV 1.5M share Spot Secondary, priced at $51.50, ENGN 12.559M share Spot Secondary, priced at $8.50, POAS 3.6M share IPO, priced at $4.00.

• In Paper & Packaging: SEE shares jumped after the WSJ reported Private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice is in discussions to take Sealed Air private, saying a deal for the company could happen soon, though it remains possible negotiations could fall apart https://tinyurl.com/ycwazusz

• In telecom: The Wall Street Journal reported that VZ is planning to cut about 15,000 jobs, looking to reduce costs as it contends with increased competition for Wireless Service and home Internet, according to people familiar with the matter. Verizon also plans to transition about 200 stores into franchised operations, which will shift employees off of its Payroll.
• In Networking: CSCO reported a Q3 beat and raise on strong Hyper Scale, Service Provider and Enterprise Ai demand and guided FY26 revenue growth to ~7% (vs. est. 5.3%. For Q3, weakness in Security outweighed by strength in Networking leading to rev coming +0.8% above consensus with Op margins also ahead. Rosenblatt noted the company executed better than others in the industry, such as RBBN in the Federal business, EXTR in terms of the GMs impact from higher component costs and ANET.
• In Memory/flash space: Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) reported sales -13% last 6 months ended Sept 30, 2025, operating -55.2% and net -66.5% with EPS diluted 108.40 Yen; seeing weakness in memory/flash names today SNDK, WDC, STX. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its price tgt on MU to street high $325 saying double digit price increases Q4 and Q1 for DDR5 understates how good the market is.
• In Software: IBTA Q3 revenues were in line with expectations but with a muted Q4 outlook impacted by both macro-related headwinds and the company’s ongoing Platform shift.