Closing Recap

Friday, November 14, 2025

It was another very volatile day on Wall Street as “dip buyers” were again rewarded…at least for today. U.S. stocks opened at the lows following another notable global stock market sell-off overnight, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, in similar action to last Friday, fell sharply on dashed hopes of an imminent Fed rate cut when they meet in December. But also similar to last Friday, both dropped below their respective 50-day moving average supports on the open…before a strong wave of “dip buying” led to another massive rally off the lows heading into the weekend. The Nasdaq bounced more than 500 points from lows to highs and 125 points for the S&P 500. Note heading into Monday, the QQQ has risen 10 consecutive Monday’s in a row. Stocks did pullback off highs of 6,774 for the S&P 500 (SPX) following a headline out of the Financial Times citing a White House memo saying Alibaba (BABA) helps China military target on fears of an escalation. All in all, it was a volatile week heading into earnings from some of the biggest retailers next week (WMT, TGT, HD, LOW). While tech lagged this week on AI valuation concerns hitting the XLK (-4.2% on week) and related names, Healthcare (XLV +4% on week) and Biotech (XBI +4.9% IBB +4.4%) were leaders, helped by M&A and FDA mgmt news. Stocks rallied off lows but saw some late day selling pressure as major averages ended down/flat.

Gold prices tumbled as much -3.5% to lows of $4,032 (before rebounding back above $4,100) and U.S. Treasuries trading was choppy amid inflation worries following commentary from several Fed speakers this week. A growing number of Fed policymakers have signaled restraint on further easing given the lack of economic data and the stubbornly high inflation above their 2% mandate. After 43 days of assessing Fed policy without official data due to a record-long U.S. government shutdown, traders were pricing in a 53% chance of a quarter-point December Fed cut, well below levels of a 95% chance after the prior rate cut last month.

Now that the longest government shutdown came to a conclusion this week, the US Commerce Department, BBLS and Census Bureau announced some key economic reports for next week:
–U.S. Labor Department notes it will release employment report for September on November 20 at 8:30 A.M ET

—US Q3 GDP second reading to be released November 26 at 8:30 A.M. ET.
— US Commerce Department says Q3 GDP third estimate will be released on December 19 at 8:30 A.M. ET.

–The October Personal Income, Spending, and PCE Inflation Index is to be released on November 26th at 10 AM.

–The International Trade report for October will be released on December 4th at 8:30 AM ET.
— U.S. Census Bureau said to release August international trade reports on Nov. 19, Construction spending reports to be released Nov. 17 and August manufacturers’ orders to be released Nov. 18.

• The euro zone economy continued to expand at a modest but respectable pace in the Q3 while the trade surplus surged in September. Its economy grew by 0.2% on the quarter, in line with a first estimate from late October, as France and Spain balanced out Germany. Compared to a year earlier, GDP in the euro zone grew by 1.4%, just ahead of expectations for 1.3% in a Reuters poll of economists

• Gold prices tumbled more than -3.5% this morning to lows of $4,032, falling as hawkish comments this week from U.S. Federal Reserve officials clouded prospects for a December rate cut. December gold finished the day lower by -$100.30 or 2.39% to settle $4,094.20 an ounce.
• Bitcoin hit over 6-month lows below $96,000, in bear market territory falling more than 20% from its all-time highs of $126,198 on October 6^th as a sell-off in risky assets accelerated on fading expectations for a December rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Bitcoin posted its third straight weekly fall and is down almost 24% from its peak in early October.
• The US dollar gained on the euro and was roughly flat against the yen on Friday as stocks recovered from a sharp selloff and traders weighed whether the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in December. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.07% to 99.31, with the euro down 0.12% at $1.1617. The pound tumbled against both the dollar and the euro after media reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have abandoned plans to raise income tax rates.

• In Restaurants: QSR announced that a secondary offering of up to 17.6M common shares by HL1 17 LP, an affiliate of 3G Capital Partners Ltd., has been priced at $68.95. SHAK was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital and raised tgt to $127 from $98 saying believes concerns over the company’s slower growth in October are overblow and is growing units at a low double-digit to mid-teen pace. SBUX shares slipped after newly appointed NY City mayor Zohran Mamdani calls for boycott of Starbucks amid strike.
• Footwear Retail: Piper said post back to school, promotional Cadence is intensifying ahead of Black Friday, suggesting a promotional Holiday ahead. Across Piper’s Footwear names, Sales/ Inventory spreads turned negative in Q125 (partially given inventories brought in ahead of tariffs), and as it goes through Q325 prints, so far spreads are staying positive only at ONON and DECKEntering November, DECK (both HOKA and UGG), CROX (HEYDUDE) and LULU all look more promotional Y/y (LULU’s SKU’s on sale were up ~80% in Q325, which has continued into November), while NKE is making further progress moving through discounting Online (34% penetration of sale SKU’s so far in November vs 50% last Holiday).
• Hardlines/Broadline Retail: WMT announced Douglas McMillon to retire as Walmart CEO January 31, 2026 and said John Furner was appointed as Walmart CEO effective February 1, 2026. Piper said heading into next week’s batch of big-box retail earnings, they have a favorable bias on WMT and a more neutral bias to HD, LOW, and TGTWMT and TGT’s strong buying power and price investment should position both companies well for Q3 and the holiday season amidst tariff price increases.

• In Homebuilders: BZH reported Q4 EPS $1.02 vs. consensus $0.80 and revs $791.896M vs. est. $676.7M; Q4 Homebuilding gross margin was 13.7%, down 350 basis points; Q4 Net new orders of 999, down 2.9% on a 10.7% decrease in orders per Community per month to 2.0; Q4 Backlog Dollar value of $516.5M, down 35.2% on a 36.2% decrease in backlog units to 945

• In Events: STUB shares fell after better Q3 results with Q3 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $468m (vs. est. $452m) and $68m (vs. est. $58m) with the out-performance largely due to the timing of the on-sale calendar with more events pulled into Sept. The September pull-forward is compounding an already tough Q4 Y/y comp set-up (Taylor Swift Eras), and mgmt couldn’t give a firm outlook for the sale slate for year.
• In Leisure Products: The WSJ reported this morning that MODG is in talks to sell its Topgolf unit to private-equity firm Leonard Green, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal would value Topgolf, which operates recreational driving ranges, at about $1B – though Topgolf Callaway had a market value of almost $2B as of Thursday’s close.

• Shares of Bitcoin miners extend weekly decline as CIFR down over -30% on the week, and more than -20% declines for CLSK, CORZ, HIVE, HUT, IREN, MARA, RIOT and WULF in crypto space as Bitcoin hits over 6-month lows below $95,000, 24% down from record highs in early October above $126K. Arkham data shows Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) reduced its Bitcoin holdings from 484,000 to about 437,000, a drop of roughly 47,000. It’s unclear whether this came from transfers or sales. APLD announced pricing of secured bonds; prices a $2.35 billion offering of 9.250% senior secured notes due 2030 at an issue price of 97%. BTM was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B Riley and cut PT to $2.30 from $6 following a solid Q3 report that also came with downside guidance for Q4; blockchain lender FIGR rose on earnings.
• In Fintech: JPM has secured deals ensuring it will get paid by the fintech firms responsible for nearly all the data requests made by third-party apps connected to customer bank accounts, CNBC has learned. The agreements are with fintech middlemen including Plaid, Yodlee, Morningstar and Akoya. Shares of PYPL declined initially on the news headlines.

• AVXL shares tumbled after saying advisers to the European Medicines Agency issued a "negative trend vote" on blarcamesine, the company’s treatment for Alzheimer’s disease. A formal recommendation against the drug’s approval was expected in December, after which Anavex will request a re-examination.
• BMY and JNJ said they are stopping a late-stage trial of their experimental blood thinner, milvexian, for patients recovering from heart attacks after an independent review finds the study is unlikely to meet its main goal. No new safety concerns related to the investigational therapy were identified.
• CDTX shares jumped after MRK said it will acquire the maker of an experimental flu therapy, for $9.2B, as they widen their pipeline to counter the impending revenue hit as its mega-blockbuster Keytruda loses patent protection. The transaction values Cidara at $221 per share.
• MOH said it was selected by Florida’s health agency to provide managed care services for children and youth with special healthcare needs under the state’s Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance programs.
• SNY said the European Medicines Agency’s committee has recommended approval of its-kind drug that delays onset of the insulin-dependent stage 3 of type 1 diabetes.
• SRRK rises after saying it had an in-person Type A meeting with the U.S. FDA, describing it as "constructive," a key step toward resubmitting its application for muscle weakness drug, apitegromab.
• VSTM 8.544M share Spot Secondary priced at $7.25.

• In Rare Earth/Materials: MP was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan following Q3 results and new accounting guidance for its Landmark DoD deal, including the $110/kg NdPr price floor kicking in Oct-1. JPM new rating reflects its view that rare earths National Security concerns are ‘here to stay’ despite China’s reported one-year pause on export restrictions. GEV shares rose as Reuters reports Chinese export restrictions have led to a shortage in global supplies of rare Earth element yttrium, possibly leading to higher costs. (Yttrium is a rare Earth used in high-temperature coatings for gas Turbine blades Central to Ge Vernova’s power business).
• In Metals & Mining: shares of precious metal gold/silver miner stocks CDE, AG, PAAS, FSM, HL, NEM tumbled following the sharp pullback in gold (-3% this morning) and silver prices as Wall Street expectations of a rate cut in December by the Fed lessen amid economic data uncertainty. In Steel sector, NUE was upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo (tgt to $2167 from $147) citing higher 2026 U.S. steel price forecasts, boosting 2026 EBITDA by 12% to $5.1B and upgraded CLF upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight after estimates rise to reflect newly increased sheet steel forecasts for 2026.  FCX, SCCO fall in copper space after weak economic data from top consumer China fanned concerns over demand. Reuters reported late Friday that Barrick Mining (B) has raised the possibility of splitting the company into two separate entities, with one focused on North America and the other centered on Africa and Asia.

• In Telecom/Towers: IHS was double downgrade to Underweight from Overweight at JPMorgan noting the stock is up 120% YTD as the company has addressed key issues that negatively impacted the stock in 2024 and continued to execute through disruptions. JPM said sees potential gains (including dividends) of ~42% for AMT, ~32% for CCI and ~29% for SBAC vs 7% downside for IHS.
• Semiconductors: AMAT reported modestly better for Q4 with QQ strength in DRAM offsetting QQ declines in China, Foundry-Logic while guidance for Q1 was also slightly ahead of estimates. AMAT said anticipates shipments/revenue accelerating by calendar 2H26 but expects more modest upward revenue trajectory. Memory stocks (MU, WDC, SNDK) rebounded after tumbling Thursday after report that Samsung hikes DDR5 chip prices. Group mixed early.
• AI related sector: Shares of companies tied to artificial intelligence (CRWV, ORCL, NBIS, CIFR etc.) are falling sharply this week, suggesting recent weakness in the group is set to continue amid growing concerns about the sustainability of the rally.
• In Quantum Compute: QMCO shares rose on results as Q2 revs $62.71M vs. est. $60.5M; guides Q3 revs $67M plus/minus $2M; and Q3 adj EPS loss (-$0.51) plus/minus $0.10; Q2 GAAP operating expenses were $31.7M; non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses were $24.8M. Overall though, very weak last 30days for quantum space as all 4 major stocks have tumbled: RGTI: $58→$26 (-54%), QUBT: $27→$10 (-53%), QBTS: $47→$24 (-42%), and IONQ: $85→$46 (-44%)