Closing Recap

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

U.S. stocks were under pressure from the onset, extending overnight declines as the S&P and Nasdaq fell further beyond their 50-day moving averages this morning, after closing below those levels for the first time since April on Monday. Both averages attempted a late morning rebound, failed, then resumed the bounce heading into retail earnings from Target, Lowe’s, TJ Maxx tomorrow morning and Nvidia earnings Wednesday night which could be a make-or-break moment for the AI tech trade. Investors also await delayed economic data with monthly jobs data due Thursday morning. A big story in tech was Cloudflare (NET) which had network issues for multiple hours this morning impacting, ChatGPT, “X”, and Spotify to name a few. There were also several AI related news items, including between Anthropic/MSFT/NVDA. Note at the lows today (6,574), the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 5% from its peak on October 29. The Smallcap Russell 2000, which fell nearly -2% on Monday, outperformed large caps today. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) hit morning highs of 25.50 before slipping. Bitcoin prices a notable rebound after hitting 7-month lows below $90K this morning. Strong NYSE breadth today while eight of eleven S&P sectors climbed, with Tech and Consumer Discretionary the main laggards. In the end, stocks still finished lower with the S&P 500 down a 4^th straight day, but well off the morning lows. The Dow however, which was at all-time highs just a week ago, has now lost 2000 points in four days.

Tech has pulled back sharply since the government reopened on valuation/froth fears: Bank of America’s said its latest global fund manager survey shows the biggest market “tail risk” is an Ai stock bubble. The survey showed 45% of investors named an Ai bubble as the top risk — up sharply from October while only 17% cited rising bond yields (previously the #1 concern), and 16% cited inflation. For the first time since 2005, a majority of respondents worry companies are overinvesting, driven by the massive Ai CAPEX boom. Tech firms are set to spend trillions on Ai data Centers, even as revenue returns remain uncertain. 53% of investors now believe Ai stocks are already in a bubble (slightly down from last month’s record 54%).” Also, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai told BBC in an interview that no company is immune if the AI sector falls apart on the “irrational elements” of the sector boom.

• U.S. shed an average of -2,500 private-sector roles in the four weeks ended Nov. 1, payroll processor ADP said. For the four-week period ending a week earlier, weekly job losses averaged -14,250 positions, ADP said, in an update to earlier figures. ADP recently started issuing these estimates, which give a four-week moving average of changes in U.S. employment. They are published with a two-week time lag – WSJ.
• November NAHB housing market index 38, consensus 37; index of current single-family home sales 41 versus revised 39 in October (previous 38); index of home sales over next six months 51 versus 54 in October (previous 54); index of prospective buyers 26 versus 25 in October (previous 25).

• December gold prices settle -$8.00/oz, or -0.20%, at $4,066.50.
• Treasury yields ended lower, falling this morning more than 3 bps for the 10-yr before edging higher and leveling off around 4.12% ahead of key data economic this week.
• Oil prices were stagnant this morning before picking up steam late day into inventory data tonight (API) and tomorrow (EIA) as WTI crude oil futures settle at $60.74, rising $0.83 or 1.39%.

• In Footwear/Apparel Retail: DECK was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel with PT $117 following mgmt meetings and greater appreciation for risk/reward saying its re-rated multiple presents attractive valuation on prevailing ests, and better understanding of the drivers for both HOKA and UGG give US greater confidence in estimates into FY27E. PVH announced that Zac Coughlin, CFO, will be departing the company to pursue an opportunity outside of the retail and apparel industry. LULU kicked off its Black Friday selling season with an early access sale three days ahead of last year’s early sale.
• In Specialty Retail: In mattress retailers (SNBR, SGI, PRPL), Keybanc said ISPA data highlights improving but mixed Q3 trends. Specifically, ISPA data points to Q325 total mattress dollars +2.0% (vs. -4.3% in Q225), while units were -9.0% (vs. -7.0% in Q225). In Sporting Good Retail: AS reported Q3 revenue of $1.76B beats analyst expectations of $1.63B and raises FY revenue growth forecast to 23%–24% from the prior 20%-21% range while boosting its FY EPS forecast to $0.88-$0.92 from $0.77-$0.82 prior saying revs from all four regions achieved double-digit growth.
• In Food & Beverages; BRBR shares declined after results/guidance as Q3 adj EPS $0.51 missed the $0.54 estimate, guided Q1 net sales expected to decline about 5%, compared to the year earlier, due to certain one-time factors and issued FY26 sales $2.41B-$2.48B below the consensus view $2.51B. KR said it would close certain automated fulfillment facilities and incur an impairment charge of about $2.6B in Q3.

• In Ride Hailing: AMZN’s self-driving unit Zoox opened its waitlist on Tuesday for users in San Francisco, offering free rides, just days after GOOGL’s Waymo said it will provide robotaxi rides in the same market. Zoox said it is inviting people to ride its driverless vehicles for free and share feedback under the Zoox Explorers program, to help refine the experience before the service is scaled up. (also impacts UBER).
• In Autos: Reuters reported Detroit big three CEO’s (GM, F, STLA) and a Tesla Exec have been called to testify at a January 14th senate commerce hearing on auto regulations and pricing.

• In Utilities/Power: TLN said received regulatory clearances from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Department of Justice to proceed with the acquisition of the Freedom generating station in Pennsylvania and the Guernsey power station in Ohio. Nuclear names saw a morning bounce off weakness, with OKLO, SMR, NRG, NNE edging higher midday. Rising power demand driven by data centers is shrinking U.S. electricity supplies and increasing the risk of energy shortages if extreme winter weather strikes this year, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said.

• Financial Services: INTU announces multi-year $100 million partnership with OpenAI saying the partnership aims to allow ChatGPT users to take secure financial actions through Intuit-powered apps. Intuit says the deal will merge its financial data and AI tools with OpenAI’s models to deliver personalized insights.
• In Crypto: more weakness with Bitcoin falling below $90,000 overnight for the first time in 7 months (low $89,286), pushing shares of COIN, HOOD, MSTR and miners CIFR, CLSK, MARA, RIOT, IREN lower this morning – btu after bottoming, Bitcoin rallied above $93K and lifted crypto. CAN said it sees Q4 revs $175M-$205M, above analysts’ avg. estimate of $160.3M after reporting Q3 revs rose +104.4% y/y to $150.M, above consensus estimates of $132.3M.
• In Payments: KLAR said it will sell up to $6.5B of loans to funds managed by Elliott Investment over a two-year period; also reported Q3 revs of $903M (+26% LfL, +28% reported) – a record high and GMV $32.7 billion (+23% LfL, +43% U.S.), while sees Q4 GMV $37.5–38.5B, Revenue $1.01B-$1.08B (vs. est. of $1.06B); IIIV shares fell after reported solid FQ4 results as revenue and adj. EBITDA were above the Street, but guidance for FY26 weighed on shares as Street revenue and adj. EBITDA are near the top end of initial ranges but implied margin expansion at the midpoint of the range is at the low end of expectations.
• In REITs: KRC was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital as believes Kilroy will benefit at KOP2 with a "highly impressive" finished product in a submarket expected to have increased leasing momentum; Barclays downgraded FRT to EW from OW and upgraded REG to OW from EW.

• ARWR said the FDA approved its Plozasiran, with the drug name Redemplo, to reduce triglycerides in adults with familial chylomicronemia syndrome.
• MRK said its lung-disease drug Winrevair met the main goal of a mid-stage study in adults with pulmonary hypertension due to heart failure; said drug showed a significant reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance at 24 weeks compared to placebo.
• RHHBY announced (ahead of expectations of 2Q26) that at the interim analysis, Giredestrant demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefit on iDFS in early (adjuvant) HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients compared to standard of care endocrine therapy.
• VNDA said its experimental drug Tradipitant significantly reduces nausea and vomiting in people taking the popular weight-loss drug Wegovy, according to results from a new clinical trial; the study met main goal, 29.3% on Tradipitant vomited vs 58.6% on placebo; also reduced severe nausea.

• In Managed Care (UNH, ELV, CI, HUM, MOH): President Trump said on Truth Social media: “THE ONLY HEALTHCARE I WILL SUPPORT OR APPROVE IS SENDING THE MONEY DIRECTLY BACK TO THE PEOPLE, WITH NOTHING GOING TO THE BIG, FAT, RICH INSURANCE COMPANIES, WHO HAVE MADE $TRILLIONS, AND RIPPED OFF AMERICA LONG ENOUGH. THE PEOPLE WILL BE ALLOWED TO NEGOTIATE AND BUY THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, INSURANCE. POWER TO THE PEOPLE! Congress, do not waste your time and energy on anything else. This is the only way to have great Healthcare in America!!! GET IT DONE, NOW.”
• Separately in managed care, MOH shares active after hedge fund manager Michael Burry touted the health insurer in an “X” post. Burry disclosed a new position in Molina through his fund’s 13F filing earlier this month. UNH appoints former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb to the board, effective immediately.

• In Metals & Mining: FCX said it plans to restore large-scale production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia from Q2 2026, following a fatal incident that forced operations to halt earlier this year. FCX expects PT Freeport Indonesia’s combined copper and gold production in 2026 to be roughly in line with 2025 levels. In precious metals, Barrick (B) shares rise after the Financial Times reported that Elliott Management has built a “large” stake in the gold miner, now among top 10 largest investors.
• In Chemicals: AKZOY and AXTA said to combine in all-stock merger of equals, creating a premier global coatings company; shareholders of Akzo will own 55% of the enlarged group, while those in Axalta will hold the remaining 45% as the two create a global coatings leader with $17B in revenue.

• In AI Sector: MSFT, NVDA and Anthropic announce strategic partnerships. Anthropic has committed to purchase $30B of Azure compute capacity and to contract additional compute capacity up to 1 gigawatt; Microsoft and Anthropic are also expanding their existing partnership to provide broader access to Claude for businesses. NVDA are committing to invest up to $10B and up to $5B respectively in Anthropic. GOOGL introduced Gemini 3 saying it’s now available in Google search, starting with Ai mode. Starting today, Google Ai pro & ultra subscribers in U.S. can use Gemini 3 pro.
• In Media: Variety reported that David Ellison‘s PSKY is said to be turning to new partners in the Middle East to help back his offer to acquire WBD in its entirety. Paramount Skydance has formed an investment consortium with the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi to submit a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, sources told Variety. https://tinyurl.com/2ja83mbj . PSKY later came out and called the report by Variety “categorically inaccurate”.

• In Software: The Financial Times reported ORCL’s $300B OpenAI bet backfires, w/ the deal now valued at (-$74B); $360B market cap wipeout sparks debt and cash flow fear.
• In Semiconductors: markets eagerly await earnings from NVDA on Wednesday night as the semi-index (SOX) opened the day lower on valuation concerns for the space. ON said it expects between $200M and $300M in costs associated with the restructuring it announced in the first quarter; said impairment and accelerated depreciation charges are for long-lived assets relating to investments in manufacturing assets at certain manufacturing facilities. SMCI announced a new Ai factory cluster solutions based on NVDA enterprise reference architectures and Nvidia Blackwell Ai infrastructure.