Early Look

Monday, December 29, 2025

U.S. stocks dipped on light trading volume Friday, pulling back off all-time highs for major averages and are looking lower overnight to kick off the final three trading days of 2026. Stocks climbed last week as the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.22%, and the Dow climbed 1.2% in the holiday shortened week. U.S. stock markets remain on track for a third straight year of strong gains (+17% YTD) led by strong sector advances in Technology (XLK +26% YTD) and Communications (XLC +21.85% YTD) on AI strength, Industrials (XLI +19.32% YTD) and financials (XLF) which are up 15% year-to-date. Mild inflation data and jobs reports for November, and expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve under a new chair, kept hopes alive for further interest rate cuts next year, adding to the risk-on mode this month. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -223 points to 50,526, the Shanghai Index rose 1 point to 3,965, the Hang Seng Index fell -183 points to 25,635. In Europe, the German DAX is down -14 points to 24,326, while the FTSE 100 is up about 9 points to 9,879. Silver closed near highs on Friday, a double in the past 4-months and +170% YTD, the top performing precious metal in 2025, but prices are down -3.4% this morning to $75 (and off highs $83.62) an ounce in a pullback in precious metals after a massive record run. On the macro front, minutes from the Fed’s previous meeting and a weekly reading of jobless claims will be on the radar in an otherwise data-light holiday shortened week. The NYSE will be closed on Thursday for New Years, but it is open normal hours on New Year’s Eve and on Friday as well. Individual stock news and research very quiet this morning.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -20.19 points, or 0.04%, to 48,710.97
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -20.21 points, or 0.09%, to 23,593.10
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -13.74 points, or 0.54% to 2,534.35

• 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for November
• 10:30 AM ET                Dallas fed Manufacturing for December

• China launched its most extensive war games around Taiwan on Monday to showcase Beijing’s ability to cut off the island from outside support in a conflict, testing Taipei’s resolve to defend itself and its arsenal of U.S.-made weapons.
• Thailand and Cambodia plan to rebuild mutual trust and gradually consolidate a ceasefire after weeks of border clashes, Beijing said in a communique with the two countries following talks in southwestern China. The Southeast Asian neighbors ended weeks of fierce fighting that killed at least 101 people and displaced more than half a million with their second ceasefire since late October.

• Copper, fueled by concerns over tighter supply, pushed hard toward $13,000 a ton, setting a fresh record on the London Metal Exchange.
• Oil’s also higher as US-led talks to end the war in Ukraine failed to yield a breakthrough, and after China vowed to support growth next year; the move is boosting energy stocks this morning.

• Intel Corp. (INTC) has completed a private placement of 214,776,632 shares of its common stock to Nvidia (NVDA), raising $5.0B in cash. The shares were sold at a price of $23.28 each. The transaction was conducted as an unregistered sale under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as it did not involve a public offering.
• Softbank nears deal for data center investment firm DigitalBridge (DBRG). Bloomberg News reports Softbank Group Corp could announce a deal to acquire U.S.-based alternative asset manager DigitalBridge Group Inc as soon ​as Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. DigitalBridge ‌shares jumped in trading before the bell. Its shares had risen about 45% ‌earlier this month after Bloomberg News first reported the talks.