Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

U.S. stock markets climb early, supported by tech/semi-chip stocks, as investors looked through the latest developments in the Iran war to focus on corporate earnings updates. Bitcoin and other crypto markets extend recent rally, rising around 2% to $66,600, the highest levels since early June. Oil prices edged higher following fresh attacks exchanged by the U.S. and Iran as well as threats of a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthis. Brent crude oil prices surge above $91/barrel and U.S. gas prices are officially back above $4.00 per gallon. The dollar is also higher, rising to best levels vs safe haven Japanese yen since 1986 nearing 163. While semis rebound again (SOX +3.5% back above 12K), software names falter again behind negative analyst comments. Dow component MMM lifts the Index after the industrial giant posted better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. General Motors also reported a beat on the top and bottom lines in auto sector. Treasury yields are edging higher with 10-year at 4.62% but still not weighing on stock market sentiment. No major data or Fed speakers today.

Nasdaq Comp outperformed behind a rally in semis and Ai plays such as data center and infrastructure following a surge in Asian markets following positive trade data. 1) Taiwan export orders in June rose 59.4% from a year earlier to $95.26B, the topping analysts’ expectations for a gain of 49.5% and marked a 17th straight monthly gain. 2) Also in semis, Nikkei reported that TSM is set to raise prices for both advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027. 3) In another semi/AI story, NVDA disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in Ai Cloud infrastructure company NBIS as the stake includes Nvidia’s earlier $2B investment announced in March, when it held an 8.3% stake. 4) data center plays extend prior day gains after HUT and IREN order news. Weaker software sector weighs on tech though.

In trade news, U.S. President Trump is poised to unleash fresh tariffs on dozens of countries as soon as this week, the Financial Times reported, with his temporary 10% global tariff scheduled to expire Friday. Also, President Trump will impose an additional 50% tariff on certain goods from Canada including wine, hockey sticks and cement. In a statement, the White House said that the tariffs were a response to unfair treatment of US alcohol, autos and dairy, and escalating tensions with the US’s second-largest trading partner. Later, U.S. Trade Representative Greer said wants more auto manufacturing to locate in the U.S. Greer also said Canada is willing to talk but unwilling to change.

Asian markets were strong helping start the rally in tech as the South Korean Kospi led the region, up around 4%, while the Nikkei reopened following Monday’s holiday and posted robust gains (rises 2,091 points or 3.26% to 66,232), helped by news that the GPIF would make a JPY 20bn investment in a domestically focused private equity fund, its first in-house PE commitment. The market largely shrugged off a tenth straight day of US-Iran strikes as oil edged higher after settling at its strongest settlement since June 11^th on Monday.

• In Autos: GM reported a top and bottom line beat for Q2 results while raised its 2026 profit outlook by $500 million to a range of $14B-$16B; Q2 net income dropped 31% y/y to $1.3B, mostly due to about $2.3B in costs related to restructuring its electric-vehicle factory. MBLY will supply STLA with cloud-driven advanced driver-assistance technology, the Israeli company said on Tuesday, as automakers race to meet rising demand for connected safety systems. In EV charging, EVGO was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan primarily to reflect what it views as stronger risk-reward and near-term catalysts elsewhere in its coverage. In auto retail, KMX was upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight at Barclays (tgt to $61 from $37) as balances improving growth trends (+7.5% so far in FQ3), easier comparisons over the balance of calendar 2026, and its increased confidence in management’s ability to execute the turnaround, with limited upside to its valuation. Auto parts distributor GPC Q2 revs and EPS beat but lowered its full year profit outlook to a range of $5.90-$6.40 from its earlier $6.10-$6.60 view amid rising costs.
• In Retailers: Raymond James upgraded RL to Buy from Hold with $410 PT on increasing confidence in upside to expectations in FY27 saying channel checks for FQ1 were very positive and indicated q/q acceleration for website traffic, Mobile app data, and Google Trends. FIVE was upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein saying the company is in a stronger fundamental position, with improved merchandising and marketing supporting a sustainable mid-single-digit comps. Toy retailer HAS posted a Q2 EPS and revs beat and now expects annual revenue to grow in the range of 5% to 7%, compared with its prior forecast of 3% to 5%; raises core profit to $1.45B-$1.5B from prior view $1.4B-$1.45B and ups year rev growth view to +5%-7% from prior +3%-5% view.

• MBLY +3%; will supply STLA with cloud-driven advanced driver-assistance technology, the Israeli company said on Tuesday, as automakers race to meet rising demand for connected safety systems
• MMM +10%; shares rose after Q2 adj EPS $2.40 topped est. $2.25 on better revs $6.5B vs. est. $6.4B and raises full-year adj EPS to $8.80-$8.95, compared with its earlier forecast of $8.50-$8.70; guides FY sales growth 4.5% and adj operating cash flow $5.8B-$6B.
• NBIS +9%; after NVDA disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in the AI cloud infrastructure company as the stake includes Nvidia’s earlier $2 billion investment announced in March, when it held an 8.3% stake. According to Nvidia’s 13G filing, the semiconductor giant now beneficially owns 22.25M shares.
• UTZ +88%; to be taken private by Intersnack Group for $14.25 per share in cash in $2.9B deal; transaction will be funded via ~$920M in cash from Intersnack, a $1.1B term loan, a $250M asset-based lending facility, rollover equity from the Rice and Lissette Family, and a $44M tax receivable agreement settlement reinvestment.
• VVX +5%; will replace AVNS in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, July 27. American Industrial Partners is acquiring Avanos Medical in a deal expected to close soon, pending final closing conditions.

• CALX -9%; after Q2 results beat but guides Q3 lower; Q2 adj. EPS $0.47 vs est $0.40; Q2 sales $293.329M vs est $289.950M; sees Q3 adj EPS $0.37-$0.45 vs $0.46 Est and Q2 sales $301M-$307M vs $301.6M estimate.
• DHR -12%; shares fell after reported a top and bottom line beat, but guidance disappoints as guides FY outlook adj EPS $8.45-8.60 (had seen $8.35-$8.55) vs. est. $8.45 but guides its FY26 rev growth outlook to up +3-4% (down from prior view of up 3%-6%).
• EFX -7%; shares fall as Q2 results topped estimates but guided annual adj. EPS between $8.39- $8.69, the mid-point of which is below estimates of $8.60 while also trimmed the top end of its EPS forecast to $8.69 from $8.74; also signs agreement to buy Mexican credit bureau Círculo de Crédito for $750M
• HAL -6%; as Q2 EPS of $0.55 just topped consensus but revs disappoint after saying Middle East dropped nearly 11% to $1.3B in Q2, hit by lower oilfield activity in Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar, while N.A. revs were flat at $2.28B; said expects Q3 drilling and evaluation revenue to be down 3% to 5% sequentially
• MSCI -10%; reported a slight miss on both the top and bottom line for Q2 ($4.94/$867M vs. est. $4.97/$868.8M) while also raised its 2026 operating expense guidance to $1.54B-$1.58B from $1.49B-$1.53B view after Q2 operating expenses increased 9.2% to $379.5M, driven by higher technology, market data, etc.
• ZION -4%; Q2 EPS of $1.68, which topped consensus of $1.57 due to a lower LLP (EPS: +$0.12), better fees (+$0.02) and a lighter tax rate (+$0.01) partly offset by weaker NII (-$0.04), but Piper noted core PPNR missed the Street by $0.03 or 1.6%.