Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

U.S. stocks opened mixed, as the Dow rises, the S&P is flat, and the Nasdaq declines, pressured by a further rise in oil prices following the 11th straight round of U.S. strikes against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Iran is “not serious about talks.” The main focus, however, for broader averages remains earnings as Q2 starts off with a bang as 81 S&P 500 companies reported thus far vs 96 LY with a 93% beat rate vs 81% Last year and the avg beat roughly 10% vs 10% LY, avg miss -6% vs -5% last year. Attention turns to two Mag 7 names with earnings from GOOGL and TSLA tonight along with other notables IBM and NOW in software and TXN in semiconductors. Several AI related news stories again overnight (see below). Oil prices jumped to their highest levels in over a month as Brent briefly topping $95 per barrel and adding to last week’s 16% advance. Software stocks slide again as PEGA noted that clients delayed purchasing decisions due to unprecedented AI market changes, which significantly slowed ACV growth (similar to IBM comments last week). Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE) Materials (XLB) early winners helped by chemical stocks and precious metal miners as prices rebound.

Another factor weighing on stock market sentiment is inflation, lifting bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, and taking 2-year Treasury note yields to 4.29%, near the highest in eighteen months, while growth, debt and political risks are driving real 30-year bond yields to their highest levels since 2009. The 10-year yield tops 4.65% this morning but stock markets still unphased for the most part. A hawkish message from the Bank of Japan did little to stem the yen’s historic slide, with the currency reaching a fresh 40-year low of 163.24 in overnight trading, prompting renewed risks of intervention.

• In AI Data Centers: HUT tgt raised to $195 at Benchmark after the co recently announced the latest validation point for its model: the commercialization of the second phase of its 1 GW Beacon Point data center campus in Nueces County, Texas. SPCX is laying the groundwork for at least one new large-scale data center in Texas, The Information reported. Such a move could substantially expand SpaceX’s Ai Computing capacity outside its existing data center hub in Memphis, Tenn. The WSJ reported U.S. major U.S. data center developers are exploring sales of controlling equity stakes in transactions collectively valued at tens of billions of dollars. The deals are intended to raise capital for AI infrastructure expansion as demand for compute capacity continues to accelerate.
• In Chemicals: RPM reported Q4 adj EPS of $1.89, beating estimates of $1.85, on revenue of $2.23B vs. the $2.18B consensus, while the board authorized a $700 million increase to its share repurchase program; the company guided fiscal Q1 2027 sales and adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid-single-digit range. APD said it will not proceed with its Louisiana Clean Energy Complex project, a decision that will generate a pre-tax charge in Q3, while the company disclosed it is finalizing a renewable ammonia marketing/distribution agreement with Yara for output from the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project. CE named as a Catalyst Call Buy at Deutsche Banks as believes the Q2 earnings, which will include an update of its 2H EPS guidance of ~$3/shr, will be a catalyst for the shares

• BLFS +5%; as RGEN said it would buy BLFS in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $1.5B as BioLife shareholders will receive $11.25 in cash and 0.1442 shares of Repligen for each share.
• CBRS +16%; after partnered with CRWD for its Falcon Ai Detection and Response platform using Cerebras’ Ai inference technology; said the partnership is aimed at improving the speed of Ai-driven threat detection and response as cyberattacks become more sophisticated and faster.
• CME +6%; Q2 adj EPS of $3.00, beating the average analyst estimate of $2.91, but fell from $3.36 in Q1 while revenue of $1.71B, topped the $1.68B consensus; Q2 clearing and transaction fees dropped to $1.35B from $1.54B in Q1 and $1.39B y/y.
• CRWV +6%; was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist saying growing adoption of open models and sovereign AI should broaden demand beyond large hyperscaler customers.
• OKLO +6%; along with shares of XE rise after Bloomberg reported the companies are joining MSFT, NVDA and other partners in a Trump administration-backed $200M initiative to accelerate deployment of advanced nuclear power for AI data centers.
• RKLB +3%; won a $266M U.S. government contract for 12 firm-fixed-price suborbital launches, with an option for six additional launches. The missions will launch from the Pacific Spaceport Complex in Alaska, with work scheduled through December 2028.
• SMCI +23%; shares surged on margin guidance; sees Q4 revenue near low end of $11B-$12.5B vs. consensus $11.73B but sees Q4 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins to be in the range of 15% to 17% which is significantly higher than guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%.
• T +4%; posted mixed Q2 results as EPS beat/revs miss but Q2 432,000 postpaid phone net adds topped estimates of 338,500 additions; posted record broadband additions, with 367,000 new fiber internet users and 279,000 fixed wireless subscribers due to bundling.

• CALM -4%; after quarterly results miss; Q4 EPS loss (-$0.76) vs. est. $0.08; Q4 revs $552.58M vs. est. $563.8M; said prepared foods production capacity projected to increase over 60% from FY2026 to FY2028; said will not pay cash dividend for Q4.
• CLDX -4%; said its experimental drug barzolvolimab failed in a Phase 2 study in the skin condition prurigo nodularis; is continuing to test the drug in a number of other indications, with data expected in September or October from Phase 3 trials in chronic spontaneous urticaria.
• DYN -5%; as priced an upsized public stock offering, raising about $375M through the sale of 18.3M shares at $20.50 each, up from its initially proposed $300M raise.
• GEV -6%; shares fell as core EPS of $2.47 missed the $3.18 est. while adj. EBITDA $1.25B vs. est. $1.29B, revs beat at $11.10B vs. est. $10.73B and sees Fy revs $45.5B-$46.5B up from prior view of $44.5B-$45.5B on better FCF.
• MNDY -4%; initiates restructuring plan affecting ~20% of workforce; Estimates $45-55M charges; Raises FY26 non-GAAP operating margin to ~15% (prior: ~13%).
• OTIS -2%; as Q2 results beat but the co cuts FY26 adjusted EPS view to $4.01-$4.05 from $4.20-$4.24 (est. $4.19); backs FY26 revenue view $15.1B-$15.3B; lowers FY26 adjusted FCF view to $1.5B-$1.55B and lowers FY26 adj operating profit view to $2.4B from $2.5B.
• PEGA -13%; shares tumbled after results as Q2 adj EPS $0.35 missed consensus est $0.43 on revs rose 09% y/y to $420.7Mm but vs est $426.24Mm; saw Pega Cloud ACV rise 22% yr/yr, but AI market changes slowed overall ACV growth as customers delayed buying decisions.
• RDDT -8%; as WSJ reported RDDT is considering cutting off GOOGL access to its content for AI use as its $60M annual licensing deal nears expiration. Other publishers are also reevaluating Google’s crawler as AI summaries erode referral traffic with USA Today reportedly down ~50% the last year.