Early Look

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Fed day is here, rate hike not expected, but Fed futures still have 30% chance of happening (so you saying there’s a chance?) S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures inched slightly higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy verdict this afternoon at 2:00 pm et, along with a backdrop of simmering Middle East tensions, while chip stocks struggled ahead of Big Tech earnings tonight/later this week. Global markets have been volatile this month as investors questioned the sustainability of the AI spending boom after signs that major U.S. companies were deepening a web of AI-linked investments and continuing to funnel billions into the technology even at the expense of free cash flow. The scrutiny comes as competition from China heats up, both in the race to develop advanced chips and as Chinese firms roll out cheaper AI models. Overnight, SKHY and STX reported in the HDD/memory space (details below). In geopolitical news, oil prices rebound after Yemen’s Houthi group is considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the southern Red Sea, a week after declaring a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, regional sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The Iran-aligned Houthis on July 20 declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -930 points to 61,434, the Shanghai Index rose 15 points to 3,828, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 497 points to 25,807. The Kospi tumbled another 6% or 58 points to 887.20. In Europe, the German DAX is down -43 points to 25,420, while the FTSE 100 rises 22 points to 10,893. South Korea will reportedly hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday evening to talk about the market as its stocks came under immense pressure after a global selloff in tech stocks. Another very busy morning of earnings and tonight as well highlighted by results from META, MSFT as all eyes on more capex spending budgets.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 537.24 points, or 1.03%, to 52,747.32
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -55.17 points, or 0.22%, to 24,876.91
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 5.64 points, or 0.19% to 2,953.67

• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy Meeting concludes; no changes to rates expected

• Earnings After the Close: ADPT AEM AGI ALGN ALKT ALRS AM AR ARIS ARM ASTL AUR AWK BBNX BBT BELFA BHC BHE BN BOOM CBZ CHDN CHRW CLB CMG CMPT CMTG CNMD CNXN COUR CP CRK CSL CVI CVLG CVNA CWH EA EFOR EG EIG EPR EQIX ESRT ESS ETD FCPT FICO FLS FMC FORM FTAI FTNT GFL GKOS GRBK HLI HOOD HXL INVH KGC LHX LRCX LUNG LXU MAA MAX MC MDXG META MGM MOD MORN MSFT MTG MTH MX MYRG NEU NFG NGVT NSP NEW OHI ORLY PBI PCOR PEB PFSI PI PLXS PMT PPC PRCH PSA PTC QCOM QTWO REG RGR RM RSI SBUX SFM SIMO SONO ST TDOC TENB TK TNK TREE TTEK TYL UFPI UIS VET VICI VTR WAY WFG WHD WWD

• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi rejected Oman’s equal division of transit routes, put back a definitive counter under which one lane is entirely Iranian and part of the second lane also Iranian, and said the strait stays closed if Oman refuses.

• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q2 adj EPS $1.44 vs. est. $1.18; Q2 revenue $1.03B vs. est. $999.68M; Q2 comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 5.8% y/y.
• Ford Motor (F) Q2 adj EPS $0.42 vs. est. $0.35; Q2 revs fall -4% y/y to $48.3B vs. est. $45.86B; expects 2026 operating profit of $10B-$11B, up from a prior range of $8.5B-$10.5B; Q2 core profit rose nearly 20% to $2.5 billion, as strong U.S. demand helped offset tariff costs and broader economic uncertainty.
• Mondelez International (MDLZ) Q2 adj EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.68; Q2 revs $9.36B vs. est. $9.2B; now expects at least 2 percent Organic Net Revenue growth, which reflects the strength of its YTD performance; maintains its Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5% on a constant currency basis.
• VF Corp. (VFC) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.25) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q2 revs $1.67B vs. est. $1.64B; raises FY26 revenue view to up 2% or better from up 1%-2% and sees FY26 free cash flow flat to up vs. last year of $405M; incurred $193.8 million in total restructuring charges in connection with reinvent.

• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Q2 adj EPS $0.47 vs. est. $0.46; Q2 sales $291.85M vs. est. $289.91M; Q2 adj net income $61.5M vs. est. $66.1M; guides Q3 revenue $290M-$320M vs. est. $304.3M; sees adj gross margins 44%-47% after Q2 46.8%; sees Q3 operating expenses $76M-$80M.
• Expand Energy (EXE) Q2 adj EPS $1.33 vs. est. $1.12; announces added $1B stock buyback; Q2 production averaged 6.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) during the quarter ended June, up from about 6.6 bcfpd in the prior year; average realized price of natural gas was $2.90 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), compared with $2.98 Mcf a year earlier.
• Veralto Corp. (VLTO) Q2 adj EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.01; Q2 revs rose 8% y/y to $1.47B vs. est. $1.45B; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $4.35-$4.43 from $4.20-$4.28 (est. $4.25); raised its non-GAAP core sales growth to a range of 4.0% to 4.5% year-over-year, up from the prior guidance range of 3.0% to 4.5%.

• Arch Capital (ACGL) Q2 adj EPS $2.56 vs. consensus $2.46; Q2 net income falls 14.67% to $1.05B; combined ratio widens 2.3 percentage points to 83.5%; pre-tax current accident year catastrophic losses were $201 million, partly offset by $165 million reserve releases; Book value per common share rose 2.8% from March 31, 2026, to $68.04.
• CoStar Group (CSGP) Q2 adj. EPS $0.32 vs. est. $0.29, beat by $0.03; revenue $925Mm, up 18% year over year vs est $928.75Mm; gross profit $728Mm; adj. EBITDA $184Mm vs est $173.24Mm; Q3 guidance for revenue at $935Mm–$945Mm vs est $967.71Mm and adj. EPS $0.31–$0.34 vs est $0.38, both below consensus, while FY26 guidance is reaffirmed at revenue $3.715B–$3.755B vs est $3.799B and adj. EPS $1.32–$1.39 vs est $1.36.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs saying despite a healthy top-line growth profile, believes faces a challenging path to reaching scale and profitability, and delivering market share gains.
• Lemonade (LMND) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.56) vs. est. loss (-$0.56); Q2 revenue rose 79% y/y to $294.4M vs. est. $291.52M primarily driven by a 32% increase in in force premium and higher premium retention following reduced quota share cession rates; sees Q3 revenue $323M-$326M, vs. consensus $320.69M; raises FY26 revenue view to $1.21B-$1.22B from $1.19B-$1.2B and also ups FY26 adj EBITDA loss view to $47M-$51M from $48M-$52M.
• Unum Group (UNM) Q2 adj EPS $2.16, in line with estimates; basic EPS $1.61; adjusted operating Income $346Mm vs est $487.85Mm on revenue $3.37B vs. est. $2.961B; FY26 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $8.60–$8.90 vs. consensus $8.79; book value per common share $68.28.
• WP Carey (WPC) Q2 AFFO/shr $1.34 vs est $1.32 on revs $459.67Mm vs est $447.77Mm; now sees FY AFFO above 5% growth at midpoint vs est +0.15%.

• Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Q2 adj. EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.35, beat by $0.03; revenue $865.8Mm vs. est. $844.2Mm, above expectations on inpatient growth but pressured by higher costs; Q2 adj. EBITDA $149.2Mm vs. est. $148.2Mm; FY26 guidance updated to revenue $3.40–$3.45B vs est $3.409B, adj. EBITDA $590–$615Mm vs. est. $596Mm, adj. EPS $1.45–$1.60 vs est $1.51, and CAPEX $235–$255Mm.
• Biogen (BIIB) Q2 EPS $3.60 vs. est. $2.95; Q2 revs $2.736B vs. est. $2.46B; lowers FY26 EPS view to $12.00-$13.00 from $14.25-$15.25 (est. $12.72); FY revs now expected to increase by a mid-single digit percentage for 2026 as compared to 2025 driven by continued revenue growth from Growth Portfolio.
• Ge Healthcare (GEHC) Q2 adj EPS $1.13 vs. est. $1.04; Q2 revs $5.3B vs. est. $5.264B; reaffirms full-year 2026 guidance; said reviewing strategic options to maximize its long-term value; do not expect material benefit to ADJ ebitda margin and ADJ EPS from additional refunds for tariffs incurred in 2026
• Humana (HUM) Q2 adj EPS $7.61 vs. est. $7.00 and revs $40.87B vs. est. $40.57B; backs FY26 adjusted EPS view ‘at least’ $9.00 (est. $8.96) and says the FY26 adjusted EPS guidance anticipates a year-over-year decline as a result of the Star Ratings headwind for Bonus Year 2026, net of mitigation;
• NeoGenomics (NEO) Q2 adj. EPS $0.05 vs. est. $0.03; adj. gross margin 48%; adjusted EBITDA $14Mm vs est $12.81Mm, up 36% y/y as revenue rose 11% to $202Mm vs. $197Mm est.; FY26 outlook raised with revenue guided to $802–$806Mm vs. prior $797–$803Mm and est $800.43Mm, adj. EBITDA $56–$58Mm vs est $56.85Mm.

• Greif Inc. (GEF) Q3 EPS $1.61 vs. est. $1.13; Q3 revs $1.17B vs. est. $1.12B; raises FY26 adjusted EBITDA view to $615M-$635M from at least $610M and boosts FY26 adj free cash flow view to $305M-$325M from at least $315M; raised quarterly dividend by 10.7% and plans to start share repurchases.
• Landstar System (LSTR) Q2 EPS $1.44 vs. est. $1.46 on revenue $1.432B vs. est. $1.341B, up 18.2% year over year as the freight‑transportation market “rapidly” improves; quarterly dividend $0.44/share maintained; management commentary highlight better Freight demand but also higher Insurance and claims expense despite lower DOT accident frequency.
• PPG Industries (PPG) Q2 adj. EPS $2.23 vs. est. $2.26, slight miss; revenue $4.50B vs. est. $4.365B, beat, with organic sales up 4% and strength in differentiated Aerospace and architectural coatings Latin America businesses; company indicates Q2 pricing covered about 90% of cost‑of‑goods‑sold inflation and expects 100% coverage by Q4; FY26 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $7.70–$8.10 vs est $7.90.
• Smurfit Westrock (SW) Q2 EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.42; Q2 revs $8.03B vs. est. $7.93B; posted Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1,140B and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 14.2%; said quarter was impacted by significantly higher input costs, particularly freight; fully expect to recover input cost inflation through second half of year and beyond.
• Waste Management (WM) Q2 adj EPS $2.02 vs. est. $1.98; Q2 revs $6.68B vs. est. $6.71B; cuts FY26 revenue view to $26.275B-$26.475B from prior $26.43B-$26.63B; said remains confident in its ability to deliver its full-year outlook for adjusted operating EBITDA between $8.15B-$8.25B and free cash flow of between $3.75B-$3.85B.
• Werner Enterprises (WERN) Q2 adj EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.23; Q2 sales rose 24% y/y to $933.97M vs. est. $932M; raises 2026 net capital expenditures guidance to $215M-$250M; expects TTS average truck count growth of 16%-18% for 2026 down from prior 23%-28%.

• Manhattan Associates (MANH) Q2 EPS $1.39 vs. est. $1.32; Q2 revs rose 9% y/y to $297.8M vs. est. $287.8M; said strong demand for cloud-based supply chain and commerce solutions drove revenue growth; raises FY26 EPS view to $5.44-$5.50 from $5.29-$5.37 (est. $5.36); raises FY26 revenue view to $1.160B-$1.166B from $1.147B-$1.157B.
• Qorvo (QRVO) Q1 adj. EPS $1.64 vs. est. $1.10, beat by $0.54; EPS $0.96; sales $784.8Mm vs. est. $743.5Mm, beat by $41.3Mm; FY2027 non‑GAAP diluted EPS guidance affirmed at above $7.00 per share, with non‑GAAP gross margin expected above 50%; company has discontinued conference calls and forward‑looking guidance updates due to the pending Skyworks deal
• Omnicom (OMC) Q2 adj. EPS $2.65 vs. est. $2.58, beat by $0.07; revenue $6.56B vs. est. $6.494, beat; core revenue $6.0B; operating Income $922.5Mm vs est $1.071B with operating margin 14.1%; adj. EBITA $1.13B vs est $1.212B.
• NXPI Semiconductor (NXPI) Q2 adj. EPS $3.61 vs. est. $3.50, beat; revenue $3.50B vs. est. $3.464B, beat; adj. gross margin 58% and reported gross margin 57.3%; adj. operating Income $1.23B vs est $1.185B with adj. operating margin 35.1% and reported operating margin 30.6%; Q3 guidance above consensus, with Q3 adj. EPS guided to $3.89–$4.32 vs est $3.98 on revenue of $3.65–$3.85B vs. consensus $3.77B.
• Seagate Technologies (STX) Q4 EPS $5.71 tops est. $5.09; Q4 revs $3.63B vs. est. $3.49B; generated a record $3.1 billion in free cash flow; sees Q1 EPS $7.10-$7.50, above consensus $5.86 and guides Q1 revs $4.0B-$4.2B, above est. $3.75B; sees durable long-term demand for mass capacity storage as Ai accelerates data generation and its value.
• SK Hynix (SKHY) reported record qtrly operating profit, but it missed analyst forecasts, raising concerns about AI spending; Quarterly revenue rose 257% to 79.3 trillion won, below a 84 trillion won estimate; operating profit of 60.5 trillion won for the April-June period, compared with 9.2 trillion won a year earlier and short of a 64 trillion won forecast; said delays in shipments of some advanced products limited DRAM price gains.
• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) Q3 EPS $1.08 vs. est. $1.03 on revs $934.8M vs. est. $925.6M; guides Q4 EPS $1.27, vs. consensus $1.30 and revs $1.01B-$1.06B vs. est. $1.03B; announces new $2B stock repurchase program.
• Teradyne (TER) Q2 EPS $2.47 vs. est. $2.05; Q2 revs $1.33B vs. est. $1.22B; Q2 net income $389M vs. est. $322.4M; sees Q3 revs $1.2B-$1.3B above consensus $1.03B on higher EPS $1.85-$2.15 vs. est. $1.44.
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) Q2 adj. EPS $0.04 vs. est. $0.01, beat by $0.03; revenue $180.0Mm vs. est. $176.8Mm, up mid‑teens year over year on increased cloud‑platform adoption; FY26 outlook raised with revenue guided to $735–$739Mm vs. est $734.81Mm and FY26 adj. EPS to $0.14–$0.15 vs. $0.12 est., alongside FY annual recurring revenue guidance of $819–$850Mm.
• Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted EPS $1.52 vs. est. $1.43 and revs $3.27B misses consensus $3.38B; sees Q3 adjusted EPS $1.77-$1.83 vs. est. $1.78 and sees Q3 revenue $3.65B-$3.85B vs. est. $3.71B; experienced minor timing shifts in Q2 revenue, primarily due to temporary supply chain congestion and multi-phased project execution; raises FY eps and rev outlook.