Closing Recap

Monday, August 03, 2026

U.S. stocks were on a mission today, with major averages opening in positive territory and barely downticked throughout the entire trading day with major averages melting higher in broad fashion. Seven of eleven S&P sectors closed higher with Energy (XLE) the laggard down over -1% on falling oil prices as the US restrained from further Iran attacks as talks were back on, while Technology (XLK) +1.75% and Communications (XLC) +2.9% were the leaders along with Industrials (XLI); defensive Healthcare and Staples slid slightly. With earnings in mega tech concluding last week (AAPL, META, AMZN, MSFT and GOOGL the week prior), markets put the pedal to the metal buying them on Monday with all but APPL rising between 4%-6% today. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose to around 11,4375, bouncing off earlier lows of 10,922 and reclaimed its 100dma resistance of 11,080 in strong semi recovery off lows, while software also rallied. The AI trade play was back with data centers, opticals, semis, neoclouds, and power/colling names all surging. A pullback in Treasury yields from 52-week highs reached last Friday also helped market sentiment. With today’s rally the S&P 500 moved 100 points off the lows of the day (above 7,500 and topping 7,600) and is within 10 points of 6/2 record of 7,620.90 (just shy of record close of 7,609.99 which was also on 6/2/26) while the Nasdaq and Russell 200 remained strong all day as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes +690 points higher and officially posts its highest close on record as all-time highs are back. Notable stats: @Barchart noted on X, “Stock Market reaches most expensive valuation in history after the Warren Buffett Indicator hits 241%, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2022 Bear Market.” Also, @bespokeinvest noted on X, “The S&P 500 is on pace for its best start to a month (+1.5%) since it gained 2.6% on the first trading day of October 2022.”

So far Q2 earnings tracking near record: Deutsche Bank noted despite the record-high bar set by the bottom-up analyst consensus (26%), Q2 earnings are beating strongly and robustly. The share of companies beating (87%) is at a record high, while the size of the aggregate beat (7%) remains strong, driven by both sales and margins. The analyst consensus has continued to upgrade forward earnings in H2 2026 and 2027 in contrast to typical cuts at this Stage. S&P 500 earnings growth is on track to accelerate sharply from 25% in Q1 to 33% in Q2, one of the highest ever outside of recoveries from recessions. Growth for the median company is up to 13.8%. Exceptional earnings growth is being driven by both sales growth at a 25-year high and margins rising to a new record. Earnings growth is very broad based. All sectors are on track to deliver positive growth, with 8 of the 11 tracking in the double digits and 7 seeing an acceleration.

• June construction spending fell -0.1% (consensus +0.2%) to $2.167 trln, vs May unchanged (prev +0.1%) while June private construction spending -0.1%, public spending unchanged.
• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI revised slightly higher to 53.9 in July from the preliminary estimate of 53.8, matching June’s reading and signaling another month of solid expansion in factory activity.

• Precious metals a “no show” as December gold prices fall -$16.50/oz, or -0.40%, to settle at $4,090.50 while September silver rose +$0.07/oz, or +0.12%, to settle at $57.86as metals did not participate with the mass rally on Wall Street today despite the easing of yields and oil.

• Treasury yields pulled back after surging last week/month. After the Benchmark 10-yr yield rose 8.1bps Friday to end at 4.743% (rising 32bps for the month of July at highest yield since January 2025 – up 59bps YTD, it fell 6 bps today to 4.687%. The 30-year yield fell -4bps to 5.23% after settling at 5.274% Friday (up 37bps in July and highest yield since July 2007 (up 44bps YTD).
• The U.S. Treasury said it expects to borrow $739B in the third quarter, $68B more than it projected in May, as lower projected cash flows were only partly offset by a higher-than-assumed starting cash balance. Stripping out the benefit of that larger starting cushion, the increase in borrowing needs is $87B above the May estimate. The department’s quarterly refunding statement assumes a cash balance of $950B at the end of September. For the fourth quarter, Treasury projected borrowing of $628B, based on a year-end cash balance of $850B.

• Food sector: TSN reported in-line Q3 EPS of $0.99 on lighter than expected sales of $13.87B, below the $14.12B consensus and lowered its annual profit forecast to operating income of $2.1B-$2.3B from prior view of $2.2B-$2.4B and narrowed its year sales view to +2.5%-3.5% from prior +2%-4% rise previously but was below Wall Street consensus for a 4.3% rise.
• Restaurant sector: WING was downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein (tgt to $155 from $220) saying they do not see near-term catalysts that could help traffic recovery. Further, Bernstein believes consensus numbers are too elevated for the next 12 months.
• Homebuilders (BZH, LEN, KBH, PHM, MTH, TOL) saw early strength as Treasury yields slipped off last week high closing levels (10-yr down from 4.73% to 4.68%), while mortgage related stocks/companies also saw early strength (RKT, ZG).

• Gaming & Casinos (WYNN, LVS, MLCO, MGM): Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that July 2026 gross Gaming revenue (GGR) fell -8.4% year-on-year to MOP 20.26B (about US$2.51B. This was a sequential improvement of about 9.4% from June’s MOP 18.52B (which had fallen 12.1% year-on-year). Year-to-date (January–July) GGR reached about MOP 147.16B, up 4.4% from the same period in 2025. SRAD shares fell after Q2 revs rose 19% y/y to EU378M missing consensus of EU440M and reported a net loss of EU3.5M, or EU0.01 per Class A share, compared with net income of EU49M, or EU0.17 per share, a year earlier.
• Auto sector: TSLA sales in Spain 🇪🇸 plunged 81.3% YoY to just 131 vehicles in July. However, sales rose 19.8% YoY during the first seven months of 2026, while Spain’s broader electrified vehicle market grew 34.9%. STLA was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS saying its U.S. turnaround thesis hasn’t materialized as expected, despite a solid market backdrop while growing competitive pressure in EE and the Third Engine regions additionally weighs on the group AOI trajectory towards very ambitious 2028 business plan targets.
• Lodging and travel: shares of MAR tumbled -7% for one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 after the hotel chain said RevPAR — a key lodging metric that tracks average daily rate and occupancy — in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) fell over 5% as an increase in Europe was outweighed by a 43% decline in the Middle East. Forecast third-quarter profit below Wall Street expectations on Monday as softer demand in the Middle East hurt hotel room revenue,

• Utility & Solar sector: SO announces offerings of $650M in aggregate Principal amount of convertible Senior notes due December 15, 2027, and $1.5B in aggregate Principal amount of convertible Senior notes due September 15, 2029.

• Insurance sector: American Family Mutual Insurance Company said it will acquire BOW in an all-cash deal valued at about $1.2 billion, expanding the insurer’s commercial insurance business. American Family, which already owns a stake in Bowhead, will pay $34 per share for the remaining shares

• FinTech: UPST posted July 2026 origination volume of $1.4 billion across 27.4 origination days, implying $51 million per day. Upstart Macro Index was 1.5 on Aug. 3, up from 1.49 on July 8, a 0.67% increase. UMI at 1.5 implies default risk about 50% above normal, versus about 49% previously.

• ALT initiates Performa phase 3 trial of pemvidutide in patients with MASH; says 52-week data readout from Performa phase 3 trial anticipated in 2029.
• BNTX said that Sobi’s CEO Guido Oelkers will succeed Ugur Sahin as its chief executive from February 1, 2027, at latest.
• LLY’s olomorasib receives U.S. FDA’s breakthrough therapy designation for the treatment of previously treated KRAS g12c-mutant advanced pancreatic cancer.
• RCKT announces positive clinical safety update from initial three patients treated with rp-a501 under modified phase 2 protocol for Danon disease; said RP-a501 well-tolerated in initial three patients with no TMA or capillary leak syndrome; regulatory update expected in h2 2026.
• SUPN rises after merging with INDV as combined entity to be named Supernus, Inc. and Jack Khattar to serve as President and CEO; stockholders will get 1.5401 common shares of Indivior Pharmaceuticals for each share of Supernus Pharmaceuticals they own.

• Medical devices/equipment sector: Curium entered into a definitive agreement to acquire LNTH, a leading radiopharmaceutical-focused company for $102.50 per share in cash at closing, plus non-transferable Contingent Value Rights ("CVRs") providing for up to $12.00 per share in potential additional cash payments, subject for potential milestones in total deal valued at $8B or $114.50 per share. ITGR to be acquired by KKR in transaction valued at approximately $5.7B as Integer stockholders to receive $127 per share in cash.
• Managed care sector: CI was downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James saying Cigna is a slower-growth story with limited near-term catalysts, while PBM softness and ongoing transition investments create medium-term EPS pressure and downgraded ALHC as well to OP from Strong Buy saying its long-term operating model remains attractive, but expanding into new markets and higher Special Needs Plan membership growth are reducing earnings visibility.

• Electrical Components & Equipment: ATKR shares rose after Prysmian (PRYMY) agreed to acquire the U.S.-based electrical products maker for $95 per share in cash, giving the company an implied enterprise value of around $3.8 billion. Atkore generated revenue of $2.85B and an EBITDA of $386M in FY25. TE signed an agreement to supply Clearway Energy Group with 641 MW of solar modules manufactured at its G1_Dallas facility using domestically produced cells from its G2_Austin fab.
• Chemical sector: LYB upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at JP Morgan saying currently, Lyondell is earning above its normalized earnings level. EBITDA of $2.1B for the June quarter annualizes to $8.4B. JPMC thinks Lyondell’s normalized EBITDA is about $5B, which it models for 2028.

• BABA shares jumped after unveiled what it said is its largest and most capable artificial-intelligence model, the Qwen3.8-Max, which is not far behind in size when compared with an offering from domestic rival Moonshot Ai launched last month. Qwen3.8-Max has 2.4 trillion parameters, the numerical settings a model learns from data and uses to recognize patterns, generate answers, and carry out tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters.
• Optical and photon sector: GLW was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Truist while lower tgt to $175 from $205 saying they had waited for a more reasonable entry point to get more constructive, and it now has one post a ~45% pull back in July. Since initiating coverage in late March, Truist’s 2028E EPS estimates have increased by ~30% (cons. +21%), while shares are flat. Shares of COHR, LITE, AAOI advanced as well.
• In Internet: EBAY shares fell after being downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and cut its tgt to $92 from $105 and cut eBay’s earnings estimates by 10%, sitting 9% below consensus, to reflect greater dilution from the Depop acquisition. eBay will need "escalated" Depop marketing spend to defend against competitor Vinted’s entry into the U.S. market.

• MU shares fell early before rebounding after reports Chinese rival CXMT plans a second memory-chip plant in Beijing and is in financing talks with a tech manufacturing hub backed by the local government, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The move by China’s largest chipmaker aims to boost production amid strong global demand driven by AI, intensifying competition for major DRAM producers including MU. Shares of SNDK, WDC, STX, SKHY also saw weakness early before bouncing.
• NXPI was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS and cut tgt to $270 from $305 saying despite an analog upcycle that is gaining traction across industrial and Automotive end markets, they see rising risks of an inventory correction in China and believe the company’s relatively limited Ai exposure versus peers is likely to translate into a less compelling growth profile.