Closing Recap

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

US equity futures were flattish overnight following yesterday’s profit-taking and faded only slightly into mid-morning on no significant market-moving headlines or economic reports. On sentiment, today’s Fear & Greed Index registered 51/100, remaining Neutral day/day, but down from 57 (Greed) last week and still way better than last month’s 21 (Extreme Fear). By late morning, markets had recovered a bit with Nasdaq crossing to green but breadth still favored decliners by 10:9 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.18%) versus SPY (-0.02%) and QQQ (+0.05%). Among sectors, only Energy, Communications, Utilities and Technology showed positive advance:decline and the same sectors were the only ones with positive performance: Energy (+0.48%), Communications (+0.45%) and Technology (+0.08%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Financials (-0.24%), Consumer Staples (-0.24%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.24%) paced the underperformers. 

In data of note today, @DataTrekMB built on yesterday’s comment that, “bull markets don’t die of old age” with further insight into 2026, noting the S&P 500 is reflecting elevated valuations and record net margins which should pave the way for incremental gains in the index. On consumer spending, @KobeissiLetter warns US spending among households in the top 20% of income distribution represents about 39% of all spending on goods and services, while their concentration in new vehicle purchases is even higher, at about 55% of the total.

After Fed Minutes saw a muted response from the market, indices remained slightly in the red into late afternoon. Most participants at the December meeting supported lowering rates and most saw further rate cuts as appropriate if inflation declines over time as expected. Some remained more hawkish, but really nothing surprising. Heading into the final hour of trading, equities continued to hold slightly lower amid low volume. Breadth remained slightly in favor of decliners at 8:7, while the sector performance landscape broadened to six up and five down with Energy, Communications and Utilities still the upside leaders and Consumer Discretionary, Financial and Technology now the primary laggards. Value marginally outperformed growth again today as measured by the Russell 1000 Value and its Growth counterpart, with value +0.02% versus growth -0.06%.

• Redbook US Retail Sales +6.7% year/year for first four weeks of December.
• S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index +1.31% year/year versus forecast +1.1% and prior +1.4%.
• US Home Price Index +0.4% month/month versus forecast +0.1% and prior 0.0%.
• US Home Price Index +1.7% year/year versus prior +1.7%.
• Chicago PMI Index 43.5 versus forecast 40 and prior 36.3.
• Dallas Fed service sector revenue index 0.1 December versus -2.5 November.
• Dallas Fed service sector index of general business activity outlook -3.3 December versus -2.3 November.

• February WTI crude gained overnight and into midday but could not hold the momentum. While global geopolitical tensions continued to lend some support, fears of a 2026 supply glut won out today. Futures settled -$0.13/bbl, or -0.22%, at $57.95. Brent, similarly, slipped slightly to settle -$0.02/bbl, or -0.03%, to $61.92.

• Shares of Under Armour’s Class A (UA) & Class C (UAA) stock traded higher following 13G filings late last night that Prem Watsa of Fairfax Financial bought 13.5M shrs of UAA to make 30.4M owned (16.1% of Co.) and started a new position in UA with a purchase of 17M shares (9.0%).
• Beijing-based Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) eyes Starbucks’ (SBUX) shuttered NYC stores — as even more could be closing per NY Post source.

• Duke Energy (DUK) submitted an early site permit application for potential new nuclear development in North Carolina; plans to add 600 MW of advanced nuclear by 2037.
• Shares of New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI) fell further today despite a refute by the E&P company of the Hunterbrook article highlighting litigation in New Mexico.
• The Information reported that Elon Musk’s xAI has bought a building for a third supersized data center it’s planning outside Memphis, Tennessee. Shares of Solaris Energy (SEI) rallied on the story.

• CNBC announced that Softbank (SFTBY) has fully funded its OpenAI commitment of $40B.

• Pagseguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) announced that its Board of Directors has approved the payment of a special cash dividend of US$0.12, expected to be paid on February 27, 2026.

• Xoma Royalty (XOMA) and Takeda (TAK) execute strategic royalty sharing transactions and amend existing agreement for Mezagitamab.
• InflaRx (IFRX) outlined multiple data analyses of the Phase 3 Study for vilobelimab in pyoderma gangrenosum, which was terminated earlier in 2025 after an independent data monitoring committee recommended to stop the trial early due to futility.
• Shares of Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) fell 10% in regular trading ahead of today’s expected PDUFA on relacorilant.
• Cogent Biosciences (COGT) announced that they submitted a new drug application to FDA for bezuclastinib in non-advanced systemic mastocytosis.
• Denali Therapeutics’ (DNLI) Tividenofusp Alfa demonstrates biomarker and clinical improvements in Hunter Syndrome, published in NEJM as FDA review nears April 2026 decision.
• Doma Perpetual Capital Mgt announced intent to nominate 3 highly qualified, independent director candidates at 2026 annual meeting of Pacira Biosciences, Inc. (PCRX); says Board of Directors should pursue an immediate sale of company. Doma has just $215M AUM, as a result, PCRX shares ignored the news.
• Shares of Achieve Life Science (ACHV) lifted higher following a long idea article from Hunterbrook, stating the “medical company seeking FDA approval for cytisinicline, likely the best therapy to quit smoking. If approved on June 20, Achieve plans to sell the medicine in the U.S. by the end of 2026.”

• US FDA Says ICU Medical (ICUI) recalling IV Gravity Burette set due to Burette component missing internal shut-off valve intended to stop fluid flow.

• Norfolk Southern (NSC) announced that its Chicago Landers intermodal facility experienced a commercial power outage that is currently impacting operations.

• Kratos (KTOS) successfully completes first factory acceptance test of EPOCH® Command and Control System with Airbus’ (EADSY) Software-Defined Satellite.
• Air China to buy 60 A320NEO planes for $9.53B from Airbus (EADSY).
• FTAI Aviation (FTAI) shares were higher after announcing the launch of FTAI Power, a new platform focused on converting CFM56 engines to power turbines built to provide solution for delivering reliable energy to data centers globally.

• 374Water (SCWO) shares moved higher after it was awarded waste destruction services funding from the State of Minnesota for PFAS destruction in biosolids; project expected to commence in April 2026.
• Copper names (FCX, SCCO, TECK) continued their ascent today, as copper is on track for its biggest one-year increase since 2009. The precious metal has gotten a boost from massive spending in artificial Intelligence, supply chain disruptions, and a weakening U.S. Dollar.

• ON24 (ONTF) entered into definitive agreement to be acquired by private company Cvent in an all-cash deal valued at $400M; ON24 shareholders will receive $8.10 per share.
• Lee Enterprises (LEE) shares moved upward after announcing $50M strategic investment and board-led transition.

• SMH China is requiring chipmakers to use at least 50% domestically made equipment for adding new capacity, three people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing pushes to build a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain.
• Nvidia (NVDA) is in advanced talks to buy Israel-based Ai startup AI21 Labs for as much as $3B, the Calcalist Financial Daily reported; Nvidia declined to comment, while AI21 was not immediately available to comment.