Closing Recap

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Stocks may have closed on the lows Wednesday…but finished around the highs on Thursday! U.S. stocks rebounded after tumbling Wednesday, with the biggest gains coming in the recently beaten up tech sector gaining the most (XLK +5.4%, QQQ +3.3%, SOX +8%), as key economic data showed slightly cooler core inflation (PCE) alongside slower growth (as GDP falls to 1.5% from 2.1%). MSFT earnings and commentary on Azure, capex and cloud growth helped spur on the AI trade (semis, data centers) while META missed earnings and burned through free cash flow in its race in AI. A couple other very notable items included Treasury yields pushing higher initially to fresh 52-week highs (30-yr hit highest yield since 2007), while the US dollar fell to 2-month lows vs the Japanese yen, hitting a low of 158 (more than 3% move) before paring gains. Japanese intervention widely speculated given the Yen at 40-year lows this week. Another big night of earnings tonight with AAPL and AMZN on deck, followed by energy giants CVX, COM tomorrow morning.

What was likely a huge part to today’s semi, AI, data center and power rebound (outside of the obvious better MSFT results/commentary and earnings in power space like PWR) was the story that Situational Awareness, a fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner “exited all of their public investments” [entire stock book] in one enormous block trade “both the longs and the short book” all sold to a single fund (which was predominantly in many names in the AI sector), CNBC avid Faber reported early. CNBC also reported that the firm sold a sizeable stake in AI startup Anthropic, though the identity of the buyer has not been disclosed. The WSJ later reported it was Citadel that bought Situational Awareness’s stock portfolio after big losses in Ai.

Technology (+5.49%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.85%) and Industrials (+0.82%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Real Estate (-1.52%), Consumer Staples (-2.22%) and Communications (-2.89%) paced the underperformers with 5 sectors gaining versus 6 declining. The semis came in down nearly 30% this month but pared losses to -20% MTD given todays bounce, and the QQQ just hit the -10% correction threshold yesterday and bounced over 3.4% today in reaction. @Bluekurtic noted on X, “Bears finally manifested a 6 for 6 for the Nasdaq 100. Only 13 other times in its history, was $NDX down for 6 straight days with a 6%+ loss. But good and bad days often cluster together. 3 days later, NDX was higher in 11 of those cases. $QQQ”

• U.S. Q2 GDP (advance) rose a lighter +1.5% Q/Q annual rate vs. +2.3% consensus and +2.1% in Q1, as Consumer spending surged at a 3.2% rate after abruptly slowing to a 0.5% growth pace in Q1.
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 197,000 from 188,000 last week and vs. consensus 200,000; the 4-weel moving average fell to 202,750 from 207,750 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.782M from 1.789M prior week (est. 1.798M); US Insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.2%.
• The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75% as expected in a 6-3 vote and the BOE says stands ready to act if necessary. UK inflation peaks at 3.2% according to projections by the Bank. Greene, Mann, and Pill all voted for 25bps hike.

• December gold rises +$63.60/oz, or +1.55%, to settle at $4,160.60 an ounce and September silver rises +0.93/oz, or +1.60%, to settle at $59.02 an ounce as precious metals benefit from a pullback in the dollar, falling to 2-month lows against the Japanese yen in volatile trading. No rate hike news yesterday by the Fed also giving some momentum to metals for the time being.
• The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) hit new lows late day in a slow steady decline all night/day -14.67% at 17.64 down from overnight highs 20.08 as Spuz making new highs.

• Treasury yields were back on the move early as the 10-year rose 2 bps to 4.70% (before falling -2bps to 4.66%, the 30 bps was up 1 bps to 5.21% (hit 5.23% earlier) and the 2 yr fell -5bps to 4.23%. Yesterday was a roller coaster ride for bond markets after the FOMC meeting as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds up 9.84 basis points at 5.193% after hitting 5.213%, highest level since July 2007, the 2yr yield dropped -10bps to 4.22% then closed just -1bp on the day at 4.27% while the 10yr rose 7bps to 4.68%.

• In Restaurants: SBUX delivered strong Q3 results and raised FY26 guidance with Q3 EPS of $0.85 beat consensus by $0.20 with ~$0.05 from fundamentals and ~$0.15 from tariff/tax favorability and raised FY26 EPS guidance to $2.55-2.65. CMG shares rose after results as same-store sales of +2.2% came in above consensus of +1.4%; and include positive traffic and raised its FY2026e SSS expectations to be up LSD% (from about flat previously); YUM Q2 Adj EPS $1.62 tops est. $1.57 but revs $9.17B miss est. $9.19B with Taco Bell Comp Sales +7% (+6.57%), Restaurant Margin 16.3% (est 17%), Worldwide Comp Sales +3%, (est +2.89%) and Pizza Hut Comp Sales -1% (est -0.46%); Jersey Mike’s (JMKE) 43.48M share IPO priced at $23.00 which was the midpoint of $21.00-$25.00 target range (opened at $21).
• Food & Beverages: SFM reported largely in-line Q2 results as EPS of $1.37 was modestly ahead of a Street figure of $1.34 driven by stronger gross margins. Comps decreased 1.0% in line with a consensus estimate of -1.0%; BUD reported Q2 revenue of $16.66B with normalized EBITDA of $5.94B, a 35.6% margin, and adjusted EPS of $1.21 as gross profit reached $9.58B on a 57.5% gross margin; HSY beat Q2 estimates with adjusted EPS of $1.90 versus the $1.42 consensus on revenue of $2.79B against a $2.63B estimate and raised full-year guidance to 4.5–5% sales growth and 32.5–35% adjusted EPS growth. PPC sales were a touch below expectations on softer pricing, while profits were a significant miss due to litigation charges and weaker commodity fundamentals.
• Consumer Products: MO shares fell in tobacco as Q2 revenue was flat y/y, and adjusted EPS missed analyst expectations ($1.48 vs. est. $1.50) and narrowed full-year adjusted EPS guidance FY26 adjusted EPS view to $5.61-$5.72 from $5.56-$5.72 and raised lower end of range; also raised its 2026 capital expenditures of $375M-$450M from prior $300M-$375M

• Cruise sector: NCLH posted Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.48 versus the $0.39 estimate on revenue of $2.64B but cut its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $1.50 against the $1.67 consensus, while maintaining full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.50B.
• Ride Hailing: AMZN owned robotaxi service Zoox has been given the green light from federal regulators to begin charging customers for ride. Until now, Zoox has been offering free rides in Las Vegas and San Francisco with its specialized AV. So far, more than half a million passengers have tested it out.
• Casino & Gaming: RSI raised its full-year profitability outlook to $245–265M (+59–72%-y/y; $230–250M, previously) vs. Street’s $246M estimate, on accelerating NA iGaming share gains (MAUs +64% vs. 1Q’s 62%) and strong LATAM execution during World Cup; LVS was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus citing a weak Chinese economy and potential pressure on VIP gaming suggesting ongoing challenges for the company, also stating that in Singapore, the uncertain pace of recovery from Q2 weakness. CHDN Q2 adj EPS $3.45 vs. est. $3.42; Q2 revs rose 5% y/y to $980M vs. est. $978.1M; Q2 Adjusted EBITDA and net income hit all-time highs, with net income up 11% y/y. Britain’s IG Group said it has agreed to acquire U.S. daily fantasy sports and prediction markets operator Underdog for up to $1.3 billion.
• Auto sector: RACE Q2 Adj. EPS: $3.05 tops est: $2.83 and revs rose 11% y/y to $2.253B vs est. $2.140B while FY26 guidance also raised above the street on both EPS and revenue; SAH posted Q2 profit and notched higher revenue rising 7.6% to $3.93B vs. est. $3.78B, driven by improving performance across all business units. CVNA shares fell as Q2 results beat top/bottom line, but guidance disappoints as sees FY adj. EBITDA guided $2.7B–$3.0B vs. est. $2.97B, and management sees sequentially higher retail units in Q3. ORLY Q2 EPS $0.86 in line with consensus as sales were $4.89B vs. est. $4.86B; raising full-Yr 2026 comparable store sales guidance to a range of 4%-6%; LXQ shares fell after the distributor of vehicle-repair parts cut its fiscal 2026 outlook and posted lower second-quarter revenue and profit.

• Private Equity: OWL posted a higher Q2 profit driven by its fee-related earnings and growth in assets under management to $319B, up 12% y/y; adj EPS beat narrowly while new capital commitments of $7.8B were close to half the $13.9B it raised y/y; new money from private wealth was $1.7B versus $4.4B in the year-ago quarter.

• Lending sector: TREE shares fell after lowering ’26E EBITDA by 5% to $145–152M on SMB softness from higher energy-prices/interest-rates, offset by Insurance segment strength. Outlook assumes SMB grows modestly from 2Q with FY "slightly-down to flat," with 2H Insurance VMM growing MSD-HSD.
• FinTech sector: FISV shares active after Reuters reported Activist investor Jana Partners is urging Fiserv to review its entire portfolio, pursue further asset sales and refresh its board. Jana supports the company’s reported consideration of selling its debit network assets.

• BNL reported 2Q AFFO that was in line with cons. ($0.39), though increased its FY26 AFFO by 0.65% to $1.55-$1.57 (in line with cons.), which was driven by portfolio performance and increased investment guidance by 24.4% to $600M-$800M.
• EQIX raised its ’26 guidance and raised its LT ’27-’29 guidance that is equal parts great and scary. While the LT growth outlook was raised to 10-13% (from 7-10%) and AFFO growth to 9-12% (from 5-9%) to get there, EQIX annual capex guidance is now $5B $7B (from $3B-$4B).
• ESS 2Q FFO beat consensus by 1%. Management increased ’26 FFO guidance by 1.3% at the midpoint, modestly above consensus. SS Rev and SSNOI growth guidance increased 40 bps and 70 bps, respectively, implying stable top-line growth in 2H26
• MAA 2Q cFFO was in line with consensus, and management affirmed ’26 FFO guidance. However, SS Rev guidance was lowered by 45 bps at the midpoint to +10 bps, largely offset by lower expense growth (-90 bps).
• PSA reported a $0.08 Core FFO miss vs. consensus (-1.9%), though mgmt raised FY26 Core FFO guidance by 1.4% at the midpoint. The quarter was active, with PSA closing the ~$10.5B NSA acquisition, announcing the PS Canada deal, and executing significant capital market activity.
• REG reported an in-line 2Q result (Core Operating Earnings beat by $0.01), while management raised FY26 NAREIT and COE guidance by $0.01 and $0.03, respectively
• VICI reported 2Q AFFO of $0.62, in line with consensus, and management raised FY26 guidance by $0.005 at the midpoint (+0.2%) to $2.45-$2.47 to reflect incremental investment and capital deployment in the quarter.
• VTR 2Q FFO modestly beat cons. ($0.01). Management increased ‘26 FFO guidance by 0.5% at the midpoint (in line with cons.) due to a $1.5B increase to investment guidance; SHOP SSNOI growth guidance of 16% y/y was affirmed. SHOP occupancy increased 300 bps y/y.

• BAX rises as Q2 net sales above expectations ($2.96B vs $2.8B est) and mgmt raising FY organic sales growth guide to +2-3% vs flat previously. FY EPS guide $1.95-2.15 ex-items vs prior guidance $1.85-2.05. Revenue growth +3-4% y/y vs prior guidance flat to +1%.
• BMY raised its FY revenue view to about $49B-$50B, above prior $46B-$47.5B outlook after reporting better-than-expected Q2 2026 financials as the company’s cancer therapies in its growth portfolio delivered higher sales.
• CAPR shares plummet after an FDA panel of experts voted against the effectiveness data of its cell therapy for a heart condition related to Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) in a 9 to 3 vote, aligning with concerns of the FDA’s staff that the company had not provided sufficient evidence of the therapy’s effectiveness, while questioning changes to key analyses after its late-stage study was completed.
• REGN 2Q results were ahead of street with revenue of $4.29B (vs. $3.8B cons), with each product line ahead of street (ex-Eylea, which saw continued competition + shift to HD) and many hitting new all-time-high sales in the qtr (Dupi, Eylea HD, Libtayo).
• SNY reported Q2 revenue of EUR 11.597B versus the EUR 11.222B estimate, with free cash flow of EUR 2.670B, as CEO reaffirmed commitment to immunology, rare diseases, and vaccines while noting the strategic review of the late-stage pipeline remains ongoing.
• VKTX reported a beat on the bottom line, reporting a loss of $1.10 per share compared to estimates of a $1.35 per share loss and the consensus estimate of a $1.23 per share loss; guided for lower cash expenditure in 2027 but is actively expanding their workforce.

• Dental sector: ALGN reported strong aligner volume and revenues, but weaker than expected scanner sales weighed on the results.
• Managed Care: CI Q2 revs and EPS ahead, with MCR 84.5% (vs. 85% cons). Guidance marginally raised to at least $30.45 (vs. $30.35) with MCR range maintained, expecting slightly higher CI Healthcare EBIT.
• Healthcare technology: WAY top- and bottom-line beat driven mainly by better than expected subscription and a nice gross margin beat (97 bps) above consensus and adj. EBITDA was more than 4.5% above consensus; raised the bottom end of its FY26 revenue guidance and raised adj. EBITDA too.

• Transports mixed as oil continues to impact the sector. Trucking and LTL names weak (RXO, ODFL) after CHRW shares declined despite better top and bottom line results. Truist noted CHRW reiterated confidence in achieving the low end of its 2026 operating income framework despite freight demand remaining well below the assumptions embedded when those targets were established. Also, TDCowen noted CHRW beat Q2 estimates though NAST GM missed their estimate; also noted CHRW offered little clarity for investors on potential implications of the recent court ruling and the firm believes the company may reserve a claims charge and see significant pressure on Insurance in 2027
• Industrials: FLS adj. EPS of $0.95, ahead of our/consensus $0.85/0.86 estimates, with the beat driven by FPD margin outperformance, slightly offset by FCD margin (-90bps vs. our modeling, +40bps y/y); TT announced that it had beaten 2Q26 top/bottom line consensus estimates, and it raised FY26 guidance midpoints and guided 3Q26 EPS both above the Street while reporting record quarterly Americas bookings.
• Chemicals: FMC reported softer sales but slightly better adjusted profits – though still down mid-20% s YoY and lowered its 2026 guide, reflecting a more challenging environment. Management also reconfirmed that its strategic review is completed now focused on improving competitiveness.

• Space sector: RKLB signed another three-launch Electron deal with iQPS marking their third multi-launch agreement in less than a year. The latest booking brings iQPS to 18 total launches with the new missions beginning in late 2027.

• META shares tumbled after results missed and said free cash flow (FCF) fell to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2022 as the company ramped up spending on its artificial intelligence ambitions. Free cash flow dropped to $784M in Q2 vs. $8.5B in the prior year quarter

• Security Software: FTNT reported strong Q2 results across all metrics and significantly raised 2026 guidance with Q3 revenue $2.01B-$2.1B, consensus $1.95B and FY26 revenue $8.02B-$8.18B, consensus $7.81B; product revenue accelerated again to 52% Y/y as management noted the strength is broad-based across OT, Ai data Centers, Ai workloads and improving SASE execution.

• Semi equipment: LRCX posted strong results & guide, increased its WFE outlook to the low 150B range; said Q4 gross margins, up >200bps to 52.0%, said ‘27 would be another strong growth year following what will be an excellent 2026; guided Q2 to 20% sequential growth, with strength in NAND upgrades, DRAM increases, and further Foundry penetration. FORM shares benefit from earnings/guidance.
• QCOM posted mixed F3Q (Jun) results and F4Q (Sep) guidance as revs were better, while EPS was lower due to a miss on GM due to higher costs and a less favorable mix of premium tier APs. However, with DD% price increases, GMs are expected to normalize over the next few qtrs. Android has bottomed and is expected to grow DD% in F4Q, while iPhone 18 share.
• TSM and INTC are developing an advanced chip-packaging technology similar to what Intel already offers The Information reports citing two people with direct knowledge of the project, a sign that the world’s leading chip manufacturer is worried about competition from a distant rival. Chip packaging is the final Stage of chip production, where separate pieces of silicon are assembled into a single unit and wired together so they can work as one and Connect to the rest of a Computer.