Closing Recap

Friday, October 10, 2025

U.S. stocks were cruising along this morning, rebounding from the prior day losses, until…11:00 am et when stock market selling pressure began, with stocks sinking as renewed concerns over tariffs and trade weighed on market sentiment and disrupted the non-stop market rally for weeks. President Trump said in a post on social media platform “Trust Social” that there no reason to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea as planned, adding that the U.S. is calculating a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump said China has been sending letters to countries worldwide saying it planned to impose export controls on every element of production related to rare earths. “Nobody has ever seen anything like this but, essentially, it would ‘clog’ the markets and make life difficult for virtually every Country in the World, especially for China”, he said. Trump added that he had not spoken to China’s Xi Jinping because there was no reason to do so. The comments were the first on trade tensions in several months, and with stock markets around all-time highs, investors took profits, with the biggest hits in names exposed to China (technology, retail, consumer, etc.). For the week, the S&P 500 fell -2.43%, the Nasdaq declined -2.53%, and the Dow fell -2.73%. S&P 500 marks biggest weekly % loss since May, Nasdaq registers biggest weekly % loss since April.

The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) surged as high as 22.18 (highest since June 23^rd), before finishing +33% at 21.93. On top of the China concerns, the U.S. government shutdown rolls into its 2^nd weekend (now on day 10). S&P futures (Spuz) declined -2.7% at lows as stocks were pressured all afternoon (its last 1% decline was on 6/13 and hadn’t seen a -2% down day since 4/21). US listed China stocks were slammed (BABA, BIDU, JD, PDD, KWEB) while shares of retailers fell after President Trump suggests increasing tariffs on Chinese products imported to US (shares of AEO, ANF, BBY, RL, LULU, NKE) were all weak. Were we do for a pullback? Well @WarrenPies noted on “X” that for the S&P 500, only 7th 119 day stretch w/o a 3% pullback and the strongest ever.” We head into next week with a few notable earnings including financials JPM, GS, WFC, C, MS, AXP, regional banks and some other notables like JNJ in Pharma, ASML in semis and UAL, CSX in transports. Until the federal government reopens, economic data remains sparse (CPI and PPI data were initially expected next week – now est. 10/24). Reminder Monday is Columbus day, while the U.S. bond market is closed the U.S. stock market is open full day.

• U.S Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (Oct) actual 3.7% vs 3.7% previous and the 1-year Inflation Prelim Actual 4.6%, below the previous 4.7%.
• The BLS announced plans to release September CPI data on 10.24 despite the government shutdown.

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle tumbled -$2.61 or 4.24% to settle at $58.90 per barrel (first time below $60 since May and -3.25% this week) and Brent crude fell -$2.40 or 3.82% to settle at $62.73 per barrel as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire reduces geopolitical risk premium and President Trump steps up trade tensions, threatening higher tariffs. U.S. natural gas futures continued losses on the day, prices down by 5% to two-week low on ample amounts of fuel in storage and milder weather forecasts.
• The U.S. dollar (DXY) four-day rally paused, sliding -0.5% around 99, but still on track for weekly gains of nearly 1.5%, pulling back after President Trump threatened massive increase in tariffs on China imports into the US and said there is no reason to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping. The euro and Japanese yen had initially fallen earlier this week given political moves in France and Japan. Ethereum fell -8.6% at $3,966 and Bitcoin -4% at $116,230 (about $10K off ATH this week $126,200 on 10/6).
• Treasury yields end sharply lower today/for the week as the 10-year fell 9.2bps today to 4.953% (down -6.5bps on week), now down 6 of last 8 weeks and is lowest yield since 9/16 and biggest one day drop since 8/1. The 2-yr yield fell -7.1bps to 3.525% (down -4.6bps on week) and lowest yield since 9/16 while the 30-yr yield fell -9.8 bps today to 4.635% (down -7.9bps on week) at lowest yield since 4/7.

• In Consumer Products: USNA shares declined after saying Q3 forecast was softer-than-expected sales, brand partner productivity during rollout of enhanced brand partner compensation plan; said slowdown during transition was more pronounced than anticipated and negatively affected our quarterly results.

• In Gaming & Casino: Truist previewed quarter saying with more limited opportunities on the manufacturing front, 2025’s G2E show saw more US investor focus on operators/digital/REITs. The hottest topics included prediction markets, Strip trends, Regional promos, and REIT opportunities/lease dynamics. With a lot of noise in the industry in recent months, Truist sees many of its Buy rated stocks primed for recovery/upside into 2026, including CHDN, RRR, FLUT, GENI and SRAD.
• In the Cruise sector: VIK shares slipped after Mizuho initiated at Underperform and $45 tgt saying believes VIK is a very high-quality business, with unique business model and a strong management team; however, it believes this is largely priced in, and it does not see an earnings/multiple catalyst path that would cause VIK to re-rate from here

• In Utility/Nuclear: LEU shares rose initially after Evercore raised its price target on the uranium company to a Street-high $452 from $252 as it sees uranium demand for nuclear energy growing. Centrus Energy’s prospects are looking brighter with a boost in SWU prices and potential capacity expansions. Nuclear was one of the few bright spots early, but many saw profit taking late on mkt sell off (NNE, SMR, TLN, VST).

• Bitcoin miners CIFR, CLSK, HUT, HIVE, IREN, WULF rose early, not on crypto mining, but due to their strategic pivots toward AI infrastructure and high-performance computing (HPC). They are leveraging their existing data centers, which are optimized for power-intensive operations, to meet the exploding demand for AI compute resources like GPU clusters for model training. This shift diversifies revenue beyond volatile crypto mining, positioning them as "AI infrastructure plays" amid the global AI boom, where data center power needs are projected to grow from 44 GW today to over 100 GW by 2030. The group sold off late day with risk asset profit taking.
• In Crypto/Blockchain: APLD shares jumped on earnings as Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.03) was narrower than estimates of est. (-$0.13) on revs $64.2Mm vs est. $51Mm; says review of strategic options for cloud services business remains ongoing; said it’s now in advanced discussions with a hyperscaler client for its second data center campus in North Dakota.

• APAM preliminary assets under management as of September 30, 2025, totaled $181.3 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $88.0 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $93.3 billion.
• IVZ preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $2,124.8B, an increase of 3.0% M/M; delivered net long-term inflows of $11.9B in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows was $1.1B and money market net outflows were $2.0B.
• LAZ preliminary assets under management as of September 30, 2025, totaled approximately $264.5 billion. The month’s AUM included market appreciation of $5.4 billion, FX appreciation of $0.5 billion, and net inflows of $0.3 billion.
• TROW preliminary September month-end assets under management of $1.77 trillion. Preliminary net outflows for September 2025 were $2.0 billion. For the quarter-ended September 2025, net outflows were $7.9 billion, including $0.8 billion of manager-driven distributions.
• VCTR reported Total Assets Under Management (AUM) of $310.6 billion, Other Assets of $2.7 billion, and Total Client Assets of $313.4 billion, as of September 30, 2025
• VRTS preliminary assets under management (AUM) of $169.3B and other fee earning assets of $1.8B for total client assets of $171.1B as of September 30, 2025. The change in AUM from June 30, 2025 reflects net outflows in U.S. retail funds, institutional accounts, and retail separate accounts.

• BMY said it would acquire Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5 billion, picking up experimental in vivo CAR-T therapies that could be used to treat autoimmune diseases.
• DYN was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer, stepping to the sidelines based on valuation ahead of pivotal readout later this year from DYN-251/DMD.
• PTGX shares jumped late morning after the WSJ reported JNJ is in talks to buy Protagonist in a deal that would solidify the companies’ existing partnership, according to people familiar with the matter. A deal is not guaranteed and the exact details being discussed couldn’t be learned, https://tinyurl.com/394km89y
• VIR announces first patient dosed in part 3 of phase 1 trial of PSMA-targeting pro-XTEN® dual-masked t-cell engager vir-5500 in combination with androgen receptor pathway inhibitors for the treatment of metastatic prostate cancer

• In Dental Sector: ALGN was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jefferies and cut tgt to $140 from $215 to reflect mixed-to-neg takes on clear aligner (CA) penetration and cont’d ALGN share loss from its proprietary US Dental Survey + a cautious macro view. JEFF’s survey of 49 orthodontists and general dentists (GDs) fielded in early Sept revealed expects for only modest, and underwhelming, incremental clear aligner penetration through 2030+cont’d ALGN share loss.
• In Medical Equipment: KIDS shares fell after guiding prelim Q3 revenue $61.2M below consensus $63.63M saying they faced incremental headwinds late in September, largely driven by delayed 7D capital sales and headwinds within the Latin and South America segment of our business; cuts FY25 revenue view to $233.5M-$234.5M from $237M-$242M while backs FY25 adjusted EBITDA view.
• Healthcare Services: DOCS was downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan saying possible risks to digital pharma ad budgets, high level of competition and DOCS’ current valuation (CY26E EV/EBITDA of 36x reflecting a major premium to the group) warrant rating.

• In Aerospace & Defense: RCAT shares fell after short seller blog Fuzzy Panda Research said it is short drone company Red Cat, telling investors it believes management has been misleading investors about the size of its Army contract, its new FANG drone, and its prospects for landing sales to NATO allies. RKLB shares rose after saying it has signed a contract for two Electron launches with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), launching from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand.

• In Chemicals: MOS said it sees Q3 phosphate production about 1.7 million tonnes, below its forecast following mechanical issues at its Riverview sulfuric acid plant and utility interruptions at the Bartow facility in mid-September cut output for the rest of the month; for Q3, expected phosphate sales volumes of 1.8 to 2.0 million tonnes. BASF (BASFY) agreed to sell a majority stake in its coatings business to private equity firm CG and the Qatar Investment Authority, valuing the unit at 7.7 billion euros ($8.91 billion).
• In Metals & Miners: after selling off yesterday in gold prices off record highs, pushing gold miners lower after a massive run (AEM, AUY, B, KGC, NEM), Raymond James, raised price tgts for gold and silver miners after raising both gold and silver price forecasts for both the near and long term, reflecting strong year-to-date performance, ongoing economic and political uncertainty, and expectations of higher operating and incentive costs tied to increased reserve and resource pricing.

• FORM was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at B Riley and raised tgt to $47, gaining further conviction in FORM’s determination to bootstrap GM back near target 47% levels as new ops and finance people partner up to reinvigorate and reimagine cost-reducing and forward-looking operational and workflows.
• MRVL was reiterated Outperform with $115 tgt at Oppenheimer saying after mgmt meeting saying the tone was notably confident as mgmt. outlined gen-gen custom AI ASIC project continuity and sustained networking outperformance. All segments are expected to grow 10%+ in CY26 as CSP/hyperscalers deploy AI infrastructure and cyclical verticals inflect.
• NVDA : China has stepped up the enforcement of its controls on chip imports, as Beijing seeks to wean the country’s technology companies away from US products such as Nvidia’s artificial intelligence processors
• QCOM shares dipped early on reports China has launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm over its acquisition of Israel’s Autotalks, China’s market regulator said on Friday.