Closing Recap

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Despite major averages finishing mixed, it was another remarkable showing on Wall Street as major stock markets bounced sharply off lows, a huge rebound from morning/overnight weakness on China trade concerns. The rally was broad-based, with ten of eleven S&P sectors finishing higher (tech was the only laggard), and the Russell 2000 Smallcap index touched a new intraday record high. US/China tensions remain, but USTR Trade Rep Ambassador Greer confirmed on CNBC that there is a meeting scheduled between Presidents Trump and Xi for the end of October (as of now). Also, commentary from Fed Chairman Powell did little to worry markets and kept the prospect of two more rate cuts on the table for 2025. Earnings are in focus going forward with economic data on pause as the Federal government remains on lockdown for a 14^th straight day. Stocks saw a small pullback in the final 30 minutes after President Trump tweeted, “”I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.” That move pulled stocks off highs in the final minutes.

China/U.S. tensions increased slightly overnight after China imposed sanctions on the US subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilder and Reuters reported that China in the last few weeks seems to have tightened rare earth export licenses, but despite opening sharply lower for major averages (and sharp declines in Asian markets) investors scooped up stocks as major averages finished well off their lows. The Nasdaq recorded a more than 475 point bounce off lows of 22,213 (highs around 22,690) and the S&P 500 (SPX) more than 125 point bounce off morning lows. The S&P 500 (SPX) came within a few points of last Friday’s low of 6,550.78, touching lows of 6,555.07 today before the catapult action took stocks higher on more dip buying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down as much as 600 points at lows before rising more than 300 points this afternoon. Big day of bank earnings with GS, JPM, C, and WFC reporting and tomorrow BAC, MS, and PNC.

Tariffs, inflation and other threats such as eroding Central-bank independence are all clouding the world economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest round of projections. The IMF said the global economy is on pace to grow by 2.6% this year, measured on a fourth quarter-versus-fourth-quarter basis. That is down from a projected 2.7% in its July forecast and a slowdown from 3.6% growth last year. Growth is projected to rebound next year to 3.3%, a 10th of a percentage point more than projected in July. U.S. growth is now likely to slow to 1.9% this year, better than the 1.7% the IMF projected in July but down from 2.4% growth recorded in 2024. Next year, the IMF sees 2% U.S. growth.

Fund manager cash allocation is at its lowest level since December 2024, the Bank of America global fund manager survey for October shows. A net 13% of investors polled in the survey said they were underweight cash, which is below the long-term average, BOFA says. Fund managers’ cash levels dropped to 3.8% in the October survey from 3.9% in the September survey – WSJ reported.

• Oil prices fell after the IEA raised its estimate for a record oversupply with WTI crude -$0.79 or 1.33% to settle at $58.70 per barrel and brent crude sliding -$0.93 or 1.47% to settle at $62.39 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted world oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4M barrels per day as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output and demand remains sluggish. The latest outlook expands its prediction of a 2026 surplus from about 3.3M bpd last month. US natural gas futures dropped to the lowest in more than two weeks as forecasts for mild weather through late October indicated tepid demand for the heating fuel, with ample domestic stockpiles also weighing.

• The US dollar index (DXY) ended near lows down -0.25% around the 99 level as the euro moved back above 1.16, while safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen strengthened amid renewed signs of strains in U.S.-China trade relations that dented risk sentiment. Bitcoin prices sunk below $110K this morning before paring losses to end -2.8% at $112,600.

• In Restaurants: DPZ Q3 revs rose 6.2% y/y to $1.15B vs. est. $1.14B; Q3 U.S. same-store sales grew 5.2% during the quarter, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 4.01% rise; Q3 EPS of $4.08 topped ests $3.97 on high order volume; Q3 company-owned store gross margin fell 0.5% from a year earlier
• In Food & Grocers: ACI announces $750M accelerated share repurchase agreement and reported better earnings as Q2 EPS $0.44 on sales $18.92B beating $0.40 estimates and raises EPS and comp sales views to $2.06-$2.19, up from prior view $2.03-$2.16 (est. $2.10) and raised the bottom end of its comparable-sales guidance to 2.2% from 2%, while maintaining the top end at 2.75%.
• In Home Furnishing/Retail: Wayfair (W) shares slipped on fears of escalating tensions with China after the nation sanctioned the US units of a South Korean shipping giant and threatened further retaliatory measures on the industry in the latest in a series of tit-for-tat moves.

• In Food Delivery/Ride Hailing: DASH was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan with $325 tgt noting shares have outperformed, up ~63% YTD compared to the SPX +13%, as DoorDash continues to deliver industry-leading growth at scale with improving unit economics.
• In Leisure Products: PII said it would separate Indian motorcycle into a standalone company, will sell majority stake to Carolwood LP; says sale expected to be accretive to adjusted EBITDA margins and adjusted EPS.
• In Autos: Ford (F) cuts production of five trucks, SUVs after a fire at aluminum supplier Novelis knocked impacted production until next year and F-150 trucks vulnerable; GM said its board approved charges of $1.6B in the Sept quarter for a realignment of its electric-vehicle capacity and manufacturing operations.

• In Oil Services & Equipment: BKR "upside 30-day catalyst watch" was placed by Citigroup ahead of the Q3 report as believes the company’s strategy announcement on divestitures will be positive for the shares; Citi also added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on HAL ahead of Q3 results as believes an update on the company’s onsite power generation exposure will be positive for the shares.
• In Solar: Citigroup raised its FSLR price target to a Street-high $300 from $198, maintaining a Buy rating saying they expect Q3 EPS to beat guidance on stronger pricing and mix, noting robust U.S. bookings, data center–driven demand, and Section 232 tariff clarity could lift shares.

• GS reported Q3 revs $15.18B vs. est. $14.07B; Q3 EPS $12.25 vs. est. $11.00; Q3 FICC sales & trading rev $3.47B vs. est. $3.18B; Q3 equities trading revs $3.74B vs. est. $3.94B; Tier 1 Capital Ratio 15.2% v 15.3% q/q; book value per share $353.79 v $349.74 q/q; Q3 total deposits $490B +5.2% q/q; Q3 provision for credit losses $339M v $397M y/y v $369Me and operating expenses $9.45B, +14% y/y.
• JPM reported a 12% rise in profits in Q3, boosted by gains at its trading division and a recovery in investment banking fees; profit rose in Q3, fueled by multi-billion-dollar deals and IPOs that boosted its investment bank, along with stronger trading performance; Q3 equities sales & trading rev $3.33B, vs. est. $3.04B; Q3 FICC sales & trading revs $5.61B, vs. est. $5.33B and investment banking fees +16% in Q3; raised its FY25 net interest income outlook to ~$95.8B vs. prior view ~$95.5B.
• WFC shares outperformed in big banks after topping Wall St estimates for Q3 profit and raised its profitability target after regulators removed an asset cap imposed on the bank; Q3 EPS $1.66 vs. est. $1.53; Q3 revs $21.44B vs. est. $21.16B; Q3 Net Interest Income $11.95B vs. est. $12.01B; Q3 Total Avg Deposits $1.34T and sees Q4 NII ~$12.4B-$12.5B.
• In Research: Stephens downgraded RF to Equal Weight from Overweight (tgt to $27 from $30) while they upgraded FITB from Equal Weight to Overweight (tgt to $52 from $49) as the acquisition of Comerica is expected to be neutral to Fifth Third’s TBV, conservatively accretive to 2027 EPS by 9%.

• In Crypto Miners: IREN tgt was raised to $100 from $49 as it is adjusting its AI Cloud Services revenue estimates, a business that Cantor believes will ultimately closely resemble that of CRWV; says sees IREN still trading at a ~75% discount to its neocloud peer group. WULF announces proposed offering of $3.2b of senior secured notes; to use the net proceeds from the offering to finance a portion of its data center expansion at its Lake Mariner campus in NY.
• Insurance sector: Goldman Sachs initiated ACGL (Sell, $88 PT), RNR (Sell, $256 PT), and AXS (Neutral, $104 PT) saying they have a negative bias on Bermuda reinsurer stocks given underappreciated over-earning and unsupportive valuations and believe a growing capital supply/demand imbalance could trigger a multi-year softening cycle, leaving reinsurer stocks vulnerable if book value growth stalls.
• Investment/Alternative Managers: Oppenheimer upgraded shares of ARES and HLNE to Outperform from Perform following a recent pullback from September after a massive rise after the November 2024 election; says given the latest pullback where the stocks are now at a 108% relative multiple on average (vs. 140% prior to September), thinks this marks an attractive entry point. BLK reported Q3 adjusted EPS $11.55 vs. consensus $11.31; Q3 revenue $6.51B vs. est. $6.29B; Q3 AUM rose 17% y/y to a record $13.46T, up from $11.48 trillion y/y.

• JNJ reported Q3 adj EPS $2.80 above consensus $2.76; Q3 revenue $24.0B vs. consensus $23.76B; Q3 medical device sales rose 6.8% to $8.43B, mainly driven by electrophysiology products; said it plans to separate its orthopedics business into a standalone company named DePuy Synthes within the next 18 to 24 months; announced a two-year restructuring program for its orthopedics business; raised its 2025 sales forecast by about $300M and now expects product revenue of $93.5B-$93.9B vs. est. $93.4B.
• NVAX second largest shareholder, Shah Capital, said in a letter shared with Reuters that Novavax should be sold to a bigger pharma firm saying Novavax’s COVID shot rollout has disappointed for third straight year and sees SNY, MRK, AZN as potential buyers, but hasn’t contacted them.
• PFE announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 HER2CLIMB-05 trial of first-line combination therapy with the tyrosine kinase inhibitor TUKYSA.
• RCKT said the FDA accepted its BLA resubmission for a gene therapy to treat a rare disorder.
• REGN mentioned at Canaccord saying they see increased risk of additional delay for Regeneron’s EYLEA HD prefilled syringe after NVO recently updated Regeneron and SRRK on the status of the Catalent manufacturing facility – FDA determined that the inspection classification is "Official Action Indicated".

• In Hospital Operators: Goldman Sachs initiated sector saying fundamental trends remain favorable but new tests on the horizon; assuming coverage with Buy on HCA, THC, neutral UHS, ARDT; said positive view on HCA reflects their confidence in HCA’s unique ability to respond quickly to emerging challenges and adjust its operations appropriately; positive view on THC is underpinned by their belief that the continued growth and development of the USPI ASC platform represents an attractive l-t oppty.

• In Transports: HUBG was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at Raymond James with $40 tgt given a setup that increasingly favors structural intermodal growth with the potential for a UNP merger, cyclical margin recovery as intermodal finds its way out of the trough pre-funded growth supporting FCF conversion into the upcycle and valuation levels that are at a disconnect vs. peers.
• In Aerospace & Defense: BA won $2.7B in multiyear contracts to supply over 3,000 Patriot PAC-3 missile seekers through 2030 as a subcontractor to LMT; production in Huntsville, AL will ramp up to 750 units a year, driven by rising global defense demand. RDW announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Edge Autonomy, has partnered with RCAT a U.S.-based provider of advanced all-domain drone and robotic solutions for defense and national security. The two will integrate Red Cat’s Teal Drones Black Widow.

• In Lithium/Materials; ALB was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America saying shares are fairly valued following strength on the back of a US Government investment in Thacker Pass and export restriction headlines on Chinese lithium batteries. Since BAML’s last update on 9/5, ALB shares have increased 15%, as investors have misread this news as positive for ALB.
• In Chemicals: OEC shares plunged after saying it sees Q3 adj Ebitda of $55M, well below consensus of $70.9M as results were hurt by lower volumes, partially a result of weakness in the Western tire industry and oil price-driven inventory revaluation; guided full-year adj Ebitda of $220M-$235M vs. est. $269M. Bank America made several changes in sector ahead of Q3 as they upgraded RPM to Buy and FMC to Neutral while downgraded HUN to Underperform and ALB, NTR, and WLK to Neutral. ESI remains BAML’s Top Pick, and it is positively predisposed to lithium and phosphates given what it sees as the best potential for structural bull cycles but have less conviction near term.
• In Lumber/Timber: RYN and PCH said they will merge in an all-stock deal valued at about $8.2 billion, including debt, to create one of North America’s largest publicly traded timber and wood products companies. The combined company will own about 4.2M acres of timberland across 11 U.S. states and operate seven wood manufacturing plants. RYN holders to own 54% of co and PCH holders 46%.

• In Video Games: RBLX shares jumped after several positive analyst comments; RAJA raised PT to $165 from $155 as checks suggest Roblox has seen the explosive growth from Grow A Garden in Q2 accelerate; MSCO calls Roblox a leading next-gen entertainment platform with a path to 1B MAUs by 2030 and a $300/share bull case; and Jefferies raised PT to $130 & raised its Q3 Bookings growth forecast
• In Hardware & Components: HPQ was upgraded from Hold to Buy at HSBC as the firm increases its PC unit shipment forecasts for HP to reflect stronger than previously expected shipments in 3QCY25. HSBC now expects HP’s PC volume growth at 5.1% and 6.9% in FY25e and FY26e, respectively.
• In Software: Barclays with Q3 preview saying sees positive setups on TYL, CHKP, VRNS, HNGE; downgrade CYBR to EW and EVCM to UW; reinstate rating on WAY at OW. The firm said was pounding the table on TYL as think SaaS bookings could improve in 2H as comps ease and DOGE concerns have faded, which could help turn the narrative on the stock around. CHKP checks were strong and slipped deals could drive 10% billings growth in 3Q; continue to like VRNS as checks sounded good with GenAI driving interest and we see upside to the FY25 ARR guide; for HNGE are now tracking app download data which shows better than seasonal activity this 3Q, supporting potentially better billings; downgrade EVCM as revenue growth and retention rates continue to decline, combined with limited float and catalysts.

• AMD was upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research (tgt to $300) while the firm also upgraded MPWR shares to Outperform (tgt $1,200) as part of a Q3 preview for the semiconductor group.
• ALAB shares tumbled as much as -16% before paring losses after AMD announce deal, reigniting concerns over future connectivity architecture. Astera Labs is seen as vulnerable if NVLink or other tech displaces PCIe. Company recently touted open AI infra solutions (PCIe, UALink, CXL, etc.)
• ARM shares rose overnight after a report in The Information noted OpenAI is working with SoftBank’s Arm on Broadcom AI chip effort.
• INTC said the chipmaker’s customers will sample its new data center graphics processing unit, code-named Crescent Island, in the second half of 2026.
• NVTS shares rose after unveiling its 100 V GaN FETs, 650 V GaN and high voltage SiC devices for NVDA’s 800 VDC AI factory architecture.