Closing Recap

Monday, October 20, 2025

U.S. stocks opened strong on Monday and pushed higher all day as last week’s brief credit exposure concerns in regional banks and trade tensions between US/China are already far in the rear-view mirror, with major averages again knocking on the door for fresh record highs after a brief blip lower a few days last week.  The Smallcap Russell 2000 outperformed behind expectations of a rate cut next week by the Fed, while technology stock strength led the Nasdaq outperformance. Apple (AAPL) scored a new all-time high today and is now +55% since April lows as investors pile further into stocks heading into the core of earnings season the next 3 weeks. A busier earnings with 18% of S&P mkt cap reporting (mostly Energy, Industrials, and Staples – though few big tech names with TSLA, NFLX, IBM and TXN) while on the macro front, market expecting a delayed September CPI print on Friday as the gov’t shutdown is in Day 20. Reminder the Fed is in their “blackout period” as members can’t speak ahead of next week’s FOMC policy meeting where a 25-bps cut remains expected. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), which hit highs of 28.99 last Friday (highest since April), has since plunged back below 19 as Wall Street investors once again buy the dip and show no fear. In stock news, Amazon’s (AMZN) cloud services unit AWS was recovering from a widespread outage that knocked out thousands of websites along with some of the world’s most popular apps and disrupted businesses globally. Gold prices jumped over 3% after profit taking Friday, Bitcoin prices edged higher and risk assets in general saw strength all day. Stat of the day: @QuantData noted on “X”, 38 years ago today marked Black Monday — the worst single day in U.S. stock market history. On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%. Since then, both indices have seen massive recoveries: Dow Jones: +2,571.5% and S&P 500: +2,882.8%.”

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $57.52, paring earlier losses to slip -$0.02 on the day while Brent Crude futures settle at $61.01/bbl, down -$0.28, or 0.46% (also off earlier lows). Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for Nov. delivery gained 38.90 cents per million British thermal units, or 12.93% to $3.3970 per million British thermal units today -biggest one day jump since 6/27 and up 15.62% the last two sessions.

• In Retail: GIL was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup noting the shares re up ~30% YTD and ~20% since the HBI deal came to fruition and believes the market is now pricing in a successful close to the deal, seamless integration, and synergies that are at least as much as what management indicated ($200MM). LULU was upgraded to Neutral at BNP Exane after 65% pullback saying the current valuation is pricing in a lot of bad news but the negative catalysts from here are less clear. Gucci owner Kering (PPRUY) said it has agreed to sell its beauty business to L’Oreal (LRLCY) for $4.66 billion.
• In Food & Beverages: TAP said it would cut about 400 jobs, or 9% of the workforce, across its Americas business by the end of December as part of a corporate restructuring plan for the unit and said they will incur charges of $35 million to $50 million related to the restructuring in the fourth quarter.

• In Metals & Mining: After a day of profit taking Friday for precious metals after the meteoric rise in gold and silver prices to record highs, gold miners (AEM, AG, CDE, NEM) and precious metal prices resume their upward trajectory; CLF reported mostly in-line Q3 results, but shares popped higher after the company said it is seeking to expand its presence in the production of rare earth metals, and that it is examining existing mining sites in Michigan and Minnesota that show key indicators of rare earth minerals. In trade news, the US and Australia will invest more than $3 billion on critical mineral projects in the next six months in a deal between the two nations, while the Pentagon will also invest in a Gallium refinery in Australia.

• In Insurance: PGR was downgraded to Underweight with a $214 PT at Morgan Stanley saying on normalized earnings, the stock isn’t cheap and given it is entering into a softer part of the pricing cycle, one can expect multiples to compress further.

• CELC shares jump after saying it has successfully recruited enough breast-cancer patients with the PIK3CA mutation to complete Phase 3 clinical trials of a novel treatment that incorporates the drug gedatolisib. It also released promising findings from trials on patients with this mutation.
• EXEL shares fell after announced detailed results from STELLAR-303, a phase 3 pivotal trial evaluating zanzalintinib in combination with atezolizumab versus regorafenib in patients with previously treated non-microsatellite instability-high metastatic colorectal cancer – the study met one of its dual primary endpoints.
• IDYA said patients treated with combo of darovasertib and PFE’s Xalkori showed median overall survival of 21.1 months in rare eye cancer in a mid-stage study; median survival is the length of time after which 50% of patients with a specific disease are still alive and 50% have died.
• MRK said it began construction on a previously announced $3 billion manufacturing facility in Elkton, Va., as the 400,000-square foot facility is part of the $6B of investments in U.S. manufacturing promised this year.
• OLMA shares fell after announces new data from the phase 1B/2 trial of Palazestrant plus ribociclib in er+/her2- metastatic breast cancer at ESMO 2025; Results showed that with a median follow-up of 10.8 months, those in the 90 mg group did not reach progression-free survival.
• RAPT shares jumped after saying its experimental drug to treat chronic spontaneous urticaria showed comparable efficacy and safety to RHHBY Xolair in a mid-stage trial in China; the 137-patient study tested safety and efficacy of the drug, RPT904, dosed at intervals of 8-12 weeks compared to Xolair dosed every 4 weeks.
• REPL shares jumped after saying the FDA will review RP1, its therapy for advanced melanoma, for a second time, based on a resubmission that included additional data and analysis from a completed clinical trial. The new approval decision date is April 10 (FDA had previously rejected its RP1 application in July).
• SMMT shares slipped after saying ivonescimab plus chemo cut risk of disease progression or death by 40% vs generic tislelizumab and chemo in a type of lung cancer in a trial conducted by partner Akeso in China; the company said it plans to file for potential FDA approval in Q4.

• In MedTech: HOLX shares rose after Bloomberg reported BX and TPG are in late stage talks to acquire Hologic in a transaction that could value the cancer test maker at more than $17B, including debt. The companies are currently negotiating a price target of over $75 per share. https://tinyurl.com/3aaaftwd
• In Medical Devices: COO shares rose after the WSJ Jana Partners has acquired a position in Cooper and plans to push for strategic alternatives, including a potential deal to combine its contact-lens unit with BLCO, citing people familiar with the matter. https://tinyurl.com/jm3w8ntm

• BA shares active after the FAA said that it would allow Boeing to raise production from 38/month to 42/month; FAA says Boeing passed extensive safety reviews
• LHX said it was awarded a contract valued at more than $2.26 billion to deliver Bombardier Global 6500-based airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft to the Republic of Korea Air Force.
• LMT: German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius intends to order an additional 15 F-35 fighter jets from U.S. manufacturer Lockheed Martin, a parliamentary source told Reuters on Monday, confirming a report by Spiegel magazine. Planners expect the aircraft to cost about 2.5B euros ($2.9B).
• Defense stocks RTX, LMT, NOC are all expected to report tomorrow morning.
• NASA’s top official on Monday said the U.S. space agency was opening up the contract for its Artemis 3 moon mission to compete against SpaceX, which he said was running behind schedule.

• In Software: APP shares fell after another short seller out cautious (Fuzzy Panda) noting weekend NY Post article that AppLovin faces data privacy probe after short sellers allege misconduct https://tinyurl.com/muun57x8
• In Media: DIS customer defections for Disney+ doubled to 8% from 4% in August, while those for Hulu doubled to 10% from 5%, according to data from subscription-analytics company Antenna. The rate is calculated by dividing the number of cancellations in a given month by subscribers at the end of the prior month. Antenna estimated a total of 3 million cancellations for Disney+ and 4.1 million for Hulu in September.
• In Quantum Compute: IONQ partners with Italy’s National Strategy for Quantum Technology to support the country’s industrial transition and ensure long-term digital sovereignty; QBTS announced it would streamline its capital structure and redeem 5M warrants saying if all the warrants were exercised, there would be approximately 7.2M shares issued and would result in approximately 2.1% dilution to existing shareholders. The last day the warrants are expected to be traded on the New York Stock Exchange is November 17

• Lots of analyst research calls ahead of Q3 earnings season in semiconductors:
• Barclays downgraded ALAB, LITE and MRVL all to Equal Weight from overweight and upgraded KLAC to Overweight from EW (raise PT to $1,200 from $750) in Q3 semi preview. Says ALAB is undergoing a major product transition from the retiming portfolio to the switching products; for LITE, downgrades citing valuation following the stock’s recent rally and says its risk/reward profile is less attractive than peers; MRVL was downgraded as believes the application-specific integrated circuits story into 2026 is less robust than initially expected and upgraded KLAC as believes KLA holds a dominant position in the process control market.
• Mizuho downgraded chip stocks SWKS, QRVO both to Underperform saying they have executed well, but Mizuho sees tougher macro, limited catalysts ahead for RF/handsets and downgrade both to Underperform based on, 1) 2026E iPhone estimates softer (down ~7% y/y), after a better 2025E, 2) new foldable iPhone with 2-3x ASP could delay upgrades and impact both and 3) China headwinds as subsidies fade into 2026E.
• Mizuho also downgraded TXN in chips and electric vehicle maker RIVN both to Underperform and lowered tgts to $10 from $14 on RIVN and to $150 from $200 on TXN saying they see headwinds in 2026E with softer EV/Autos in N.A. and China risks. TXN cut to Underperform, lower estimates below consensus given lack of near-term catalysts, premium valuation, slowing Autos, China competition and tariff headwinds.
• NVTS was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Rosenblatt saying they see expectations for the impact of 800VDC data center architecture as well ahead of the market. The firm is introducing its 2027 estimates to include the first deployments of 800VDC data centers.