Closing Recap

Thursday, October 23, 2025

U.S. stocks grinded higher from the open which was the low print of the day, with the S&P 500 back near the 6,750 level and the Nasdaq near the 23,000 level, both finishing just off their highs along with gains for the Dow jones Industrial Average and Smallcap Russell 2000 as earnings, rate cut expectations and the view that China/US will resolve trade differences continues to push investors into riskier assets. After a sharp decline in momentum stocks over the last week, prices for those stocks bounced handily today in another “buy the dip” heading into the best month of the year historically (November). Markets await the first noteworthy economic data point in three weeks with the U.S. September CPI data dropping Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET as the Federal shutdown rolls into Day 23 today, leaving investors in the dark on economic reports. Expectations for tomorrow’s headline CPI is to rise +0.4% M/M and rise +2.9% Y/Y while core CPI (ex-food & energy) est. +0.3% M/M, and +3.1% Y/Y. Markets are currently pricing in a 25bps Fed cut next week, though a hawkish core reading could hint inflation hasn’t peaked. There were no concerns heading into tomorrow’s report as stocks climbed all day on solid market breadth.

In trade news, U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as part of a trip to Asia, the White House said on Thursday mid-afternoon. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump departs for Malaysia late on Friday night and will also visit South Korea, where he will meet Xi next Thursday. The meeting comes ahead of a November 1^st deadline where the President is set to institute 155% in tariffs on China if they can’t come to some agreements on rare earths.

In weekly sentiment data: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -5.8% vs +12.4% last week. Bulls rise to 36.9%, from 33.7%, Neutrals rise to 20.5% from 20.3%, Bears drop to 42.7% from 46.1%; 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to 90.35 from last week’s 84.87 – recent hi of 98.15 from 8/21 – 2025 hi of 99.30 from 7/3 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q3) of 86.63 – had been in a roughly 5.5 point range (80.66-86.24) for the last 7 weeks until this 90 reading.

• Gold prices rose $80.20 or 1.93% to settle at $4,145.60 an ounce, a nice bounce after two consecutive sessions of losses and ahead of CPI inflation data tomorrow morning that could boost volatility in currency, commodity and Treasury markets.
• Treasury yields bounced with the 10-year up over 4bps back to 4% ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report, while the US dollar was little changed, holding around the 99 level all week with the euro up slightly holding above 1.16 and the dollar yen up at 152.50. US mortgage rates drop to 6.19% for 30-year loans, lowest in a year.

• The auto industry faces potential supply chain disruptions with the tension between Nexperia, a major semis supplier and its parent company Wingtech, a Chinese company that fully acquired Nexperia in 2018. Bernstein noted on 30th Sept, the Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs invoked the Goods Availability Act in response to governance concerns at Nexperia. On 19th Oct, the situation was escalated, with Nexperia China tells employees to ignore orders from Dutch head office and Nexperia halting salaries and system access for Chinese employees. This is likely to cause supply chain disruptions in the automotive semis industry and impact the other suppliers in their coverage, said Bernstein.
• RIVN is set to lay off more than 600 people, or around 4% of its workforce, as the electric-vehicle maker looks to reduce costs, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

• In Restaurants: Coffee futures rose to a fresh record in New York as crop concerns and US tariffs revive worries over supplies, risking further price hikes at cafes and supermarkets. Prices of arabica, the variety favored by chains such as SBUX for specialty brews, climbed as much as 3.4% to an all-time high of $4.3510 a pound. Futures had set the prior record of $4.2995 a pound in February.

• In Leisure: LYV tgt lowered to $181 from $195 and downgrade SEAT to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup (cut tgt to $13 from $32) noting in September 2025, the FTC filed a lawsuit against Live Nation. Citi believes the most credible FTC claim is that Live Nation allows brokers to purchase primary tickets above artist-imposed limits. If the FTC prevails and Live Nation enforces ticket limits globally (not just in the US), Citi estimates it could reduce AOI by 12% and hurt the stock by $18 per share (firm assigns a 70% likelihood that the FTC prevails).

• In Utilities: FE shares slipped despite a beat on EPS and revs for quarter; PCG beat estimates for Q3, helped by lower interest expenses and higher power demand and narrowed its FY25 adj EPS view to $1.49-$1.51 from $1.48-$1.52 in its previous forecast; CNP shares dip on results.

• In Lending: LC reported Q3 operating EPS of $0.37, well above expectations, with core PPNR beating due to strong origination fees with loan volume increasing 37% y/y to $2.62B; strong credit also drove the beat with NCOs improving meaningfully; guidance was also positive.
• In Brokers/Asset Managers: RJF reported 4Q25 EPS of $3.12, above consensus of $2.77 as transactional revenue and IBD were both better than expected with other transactional revenue driving the transactional rev beat (4c tailwind vs. consensus), and with DCM (6c tailwind) and advisory (a penny tailwind) driving IBD.
• In Rental Services: URI reported 3Q25 adjusted EBITDA of $1.95B, in line with consensus as margins were 46.0% (vs. consensus 46.9%); Q3 total revenue of $4.23B beat consensus of $4.16B and raised FY25 outlook for revenue and fleet capex, while maintaining the midpoint of its narrowed range for adjusted EBITDA. Ryder (R) reported mixed Q3 results as EPS beat but revs slightly missed consensus.
• In Credit Bureaus: TRU Q3 net income rose sharply, and the company increased its 2025 earnings projection amid robust demand for its credit reports; Revenue rose 8% to $1.17B, ahead of the average analyst estimate of $1.13B; raised its FY26 EPS view on higher revs.
• In Insurance: GSHD Q3 top/bottom-line beats w/guidance reaffirmed; beat mainly driven by better-than-expected renewal royalty fees ($45.7M vs $42.6M est.) and new business commission ($7.5M vs $6.4M). PFG was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley saying the stock’s multiple has compressed since their downgrade in December 2024.
• In Exchanges: CME was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank post Q325 earnings, as it believes several strategic organic growth initiatives, especially within prediction markets, will help drive EPS growth toward at least a high single digit growth pace next year, after its estimated 9-10% growth for this year.
• In REITs: GTY 3Q25 AFFO beat (+$0.01 vs. est.) and modest upward revision to FY25 AFFO guidance (+0.8% at the MP) driven by strong investment activity YTD of $237M at an initial cash yield of 7.9%. Quarterly investment activity and committed pipeline remained solid at $56.3M and $75M, respectively.

• RHHBY raises FY profit guidance, expecting low-double-digit percentage increase in adjusted earnings amid cost cuts.
• TNGX released a positive update from its early-stage study of vopimetostat, an experimental drug to treat cancers with MTAP deficiency.
• VKTX shares rallied on results and drug updates as Cantor reiterated its Overweight and $105 tgt saying Viking "just crystallized five critically important data catalysts in the next 24 months" and the company affirmed cash on hand of greater than $700M was sufficient to get through all of them.
• VYTX shares surge; said its oral drug VTX3232 cut key inflammation markers tied to heart disease in patients with obesity and cardiovascular risk; said its drug lowered hsCRP by about 80% in the first week; levels of IL-6, a protein linked to heart risk, also dropped below the threshold for cardiovascular risk.
• WST boosted full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $7.06–$7.11 from $6.65–$6.85 and also raised its yearly sales forecast to $3.06–$3.07B from $3.04–$3.06B which followed handily top/bottom line beats for Q3.

• In medical Devices: ITGR shares tumbled after saying it expects sales of 3 new products to decline in 2026 … 2 electrophysiology products and 1 new neuromodulation product for an emerging customer" as market adoption of these products has been slower than forecast (shares of others INSP, ABT, MDT were lower).

• In Multi-Industry/Industrials: HON raised its full-year profit outlook to $10.60-$10.70 from $10.45-$10.65 and reported Q3 earnings that topped Wall Street expectations, boosted by the company’s aerospace unit ahead of a planned breakup, though did cut FY25 revenue view to $40.7B-$40.9B from $40.8B-$41.3B; ROP reported mixed Q3 results and narrowed year EPS view and reaffirmed FY rev outlook; but shares fell on weaker Q4 guidance of $5.11-$5.16 EPS vs. est. $5.23.

• In Industrials Metals: in steels, RS Q3 LIFO adj operating EPS of $3.64, below consensus $3.68, and a guidance range of $3.60-$3.80. Sales were above our estimate on volume/share gains (pricing/mix neutral), but LIFO gross margins were 60 bps below view at 28.3% and 29.9% in 2Q25. CMC was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jefferies due to valuation following the recent rally to a YTD high and a lower capital return trajectory due to recent announced acquisitions. In aluminum, KALU rises on results and raised guidance while AA reported a narrower Q3 EPS loss, while revs of $3B just missed estimates saying results were hurt by lower alumina prices and lower trading activity; in copper, FCX reported top and bottom-line beat.
• In Materials/Chemicals: AVY was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS saying they think both RFID and adj EPS growth could inflect higher in 2026 supported by a new WMT RFID roll out into bakery, meat, and deli sections of the store which UBS thinks can add >10% growth to AVY RFID sales over the next 2 years. Chemical company DOW rises on smaller Q3 operating EPS loss (-$0.19) though revenue $9.97B missed est. $10.23B; Company achieved sequential EBIT growth through cost reductions and operational improvements.

• In AI/Data Center: OpenAI, ORCL and Vantage Data Centers announce near 1GW Stargate data center site in Wisconsin (as part of the ORCL 4.5GW Stargate deal); construction will begin soon and is scheduled for completion in 2028.

• In Software: SAP reported mixed Q325 results, with non-IFRS EPS and operating profit topping views, on in-line revs €9.08B, while cloud revenue of €5.29B below consensus €5.31B, up 27% in cc, down from 28% last quarter; cloud ERP growth of 31% in cc versus 34% last quarter; and current cloud backlog growth slows. ADBE has held discussions with Synthesia, a company that makes AI software that generates video avatars of people, to purchase the London-based startup for roughly $3B, The Information reported.
• IT Services & Consulting: IBM Q3 revenue (+7% y/y) and EPS (+16% y/y) beat driven by mainframe and consulting; very modest increase to 2025 guidance in-line (revenue 5%+, FCF $13.5M+), but shares fell as software misses (+5% organic) as Red Hat decelerated and will decelerate again in Q4.

• LRCX reported a “beat-and-raise” Sep-Q results as the company raised 2025 WFE to slightly above $105B on higher DRAM HBM demand and expects solid WFE growth in 2026 in all end markets with China domestic down y/y including $600M incremental BIS impact and ~30% of sales in 2026.
• MPWR price tgt raise to $1,250 from $1,050 at Keybanc saying their supply chain work indicates MPWR is expected to regain significant market on NVDA’s next generation GPU platform Vera Rubin and expects MPWR will have 70% market share across the platform on both VR200 NVL144 and R200 HGX platforms.
• PLXS beat consensus expectations on sales and EPS. However, a tax benefit was the main driver of the ~$0.24 beat relative to numbers. EBIT margins of 5.8% came in modestly lower vs. the Street’s 5.9%. On the positive side, FCF for FY25 was $154M, with a soft guidance of ~$100M in FY26.
• SMCI shares slumped after guiding Q2 revs $5.0B vs. est. $6.5B though reiterates FY26 revs at least $33B.
• STM Q3 beat at $3.19B/$0.29 vs $3.17B/$0.22, but Q4 rev guided to $3.28B (plus/minus 350 bps) vs $3.35B and GM to 35% (plus/minus 350 bps) vs 34.6%. Management cited normal seasonality (lower auto capacity-reservation fees) and continued industrial inventory digestion.
• ALAB to acquire aiXscale Photonics (terms undisclosed); deal expected to support photonic scale-up by combining aiXscale’s fiber-chip coupling tech with Astera’s connectivity and signal processing portfolio.