Closing Recap

Friday, October 24, 2025

U.S. stocks opened at the lows and finished just off the highs, with major averages concluding another strong week, closing at record highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average in a stock market rally that just won’t quit, now into its 7^th straight month. In fact, it’s only been 31 days since the Dow crossed the 46K level – while today, it closed above 47K to close for the first time ever! The dips get shallower and shallower while the rips get more aggressive and extend gains for most S&P sectors (technology, utilities, and communications all up +20% YTD while Consumer Staples the biggest laggard up less than 1% on the year). Today’s rally was sparked by the first notable economic data point in three weeks due to the ongoing government shutdown (now in Day 24 and 2^nd longest in history), as the September CPI reading showed inflation levels were cooler than expected. The data added more fuel to the fire, raising expectations of more aggressive rate cuts by the Fed ahead of next weeks meeting. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.92%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.31%, and the Dow climbed 2.2%.

A massive week of Q3 earnings coming up with roughly 38% of S&P companies scheduled to report that can push markets to higher highs (or start a correction) with results from 5 of the 7 Mag 7 stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT), a handful of Dow components reporting (BA, CAT, JNJ, VZ, UNH, MRK, CVX, and Visa), a few notable leaders in their field (CMCSA, SBUX, LLY, UPS, MA, CVS) and several momentum based crypto names (COIN, MSTR, RIOT). We also get FOMC & BoC Monetary Policy announcements midweek while US President Trump is expected to meet South Korea’s and China’s Leader.

In trade news overnight, President Trump leaves Washington on Friday night, and is set for a five-day trip spanning Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, On this trip, the President is expected to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea to iron out trade disputes. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said trade talks with Canada were terminated after a Canadian political advertisement used the recorded voice of late president Ronald Reagan saying tariffs cause trade wars and economic disaster

Asian equities advance on growing optimism the meeting planned for next week between Presidents Trump and Xi will succeed in reducing trade tensions. A Chinese official said the two countries can find solutions to address concerns. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 658 points to 49,299, the Shanghai Index gained 27 points to 3,950, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 192 points to 26,160 to close out another winning week.

• U.S. S&P Global October flash composite PMI at 54.8 (vs 53.9 in September); U.S. S&P Global October flash services PMI at 55.2 (vs 54.2 in September) and U.S. S&P Global October flash manufacturing PMI at 52.2 (vs 52.0 in September).
• University of Michigan Sentiment Oct F reported at 53.6 vs. est 54.5 and below prior 55.0 as the current conditions sentiment 58.6 (prev 61.0) and expectations index at 50.3 (prev 51.2); the 1-Year Inflation expectations steady at 4.6% while 5-10-Year inflation rises to 3.9% (prev 3.7%).

• Oil prices slipped on Friday, erasing earlier gains but still managed to close higher on the week after the US Treasury launched sanctions directly targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil companies. Also, Chinese state oil majors suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil after the United States imposed sanctions. WTI crude fell -$0.29 to $61.50 (but +7.6% for the week) and Brent slid a nickel to $65.94 per barrel.
• Treasury yields end mostly flat on the week, but down over the last month as the 10-year yield slipped -1bps to 3.996% this week but is down roughly -19bps over the last 4 weeks (down 8 of last 10) heading into an expected rate cut by the Fed next week. The 2-yr yield rose 2.1bps this week to settle at 3.483%, snapping a 3-week streak of falling yields and the 30-yr yield dipped -1.7bps to 4.586% on the week and is down around -18bps the last 4-weeks.

• German auto parts supplier Bosch is preparing to furlough staff at its Salzgitter plant if a trade dispute between China and the Netherlands over Dutch chipmaker Nexperia is not resolved soon, amid mounting concerns in Europe’s beleaguered car industry.
• Canada slashes GM and STLA import quotas after Trump comments on trade with Canada overnight. the government cut General Motors’ annual remission quota by 24.2% while Stellantis got hit harder with a 50% reduction – follows tensions over US-Canada trade and shifting auto production north of the border
• In Aftermarket auto sector: Piper downgraded MCW to Neutral in auto aftermarket Q3 preview; remain positive on the Quick Lube space – and say VVV is one of their top 5 favorite ideas, but it believes the space experienced a transitory seasonal comp slowdown in recent weeks. For DRVN, Piper reduces its PT to $19, as Quick Lube trends look favorable but Int’l Car Wash has tough compares.

• In Food &Beverages: SAM shares jumped after reported EPS above consensus in 3Q, though Twisted Tea and Truly continue to face challenges. Sun Cruiser continues to perform well and gives a mix lift to margins. It is also stepping up its brand spend in 2H25 to help drive growth. Stifel issued an update on sector, raising tgts for MNST to $78 from $72 and CELH to $74 from $70 saying they maintain their Positive weighting for Energy Drinks and Neutral weighting for the Food group. Stife said the Energy Drink category accelerated in U.S. tracked channels on a one- and two-year basis in the third quarter and Stifel maintains its constructive view for both Monster Energy and Celsius.
• In Consumer Products/Staples: PG reported Q1 net sales $22.39B that top ests $22.17B on better EPS of $1.99 vs est. $1.90 and better organic revs +2%, vs. est. +1.42% while maintained its fiscal 2026 sales, EPS growth and cash return guidance; said expects commodity cost headwind of about $100M after tax and higher costs from tariffs in fiscal 2026 and expects costs from tariffs of about $400M after tax for fiscal 2026.

• In Solar/Renewables: NXT shares jumped after reported strong Q2 results ahead of consensus expectations and raises FY26 revenue outlook and highlighted 42% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 to $905M and a 29% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $224M. TE raised $122 million to fund construction of its G2_Austin solar cell plant in Rockdale, Texas. The $400–425 million facility will add 2.1 GW of annual capacity in its first phase, with construction starting later this year.
• In Utility & Power: BE, SEI, LBRT, GEV, VST, TLN among names moving early Bloomberg reported Trump Administration is pushing regulators to dramatically accelerate the process of allowing the booming data-center sector to connect to power grids. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright urged FERC to grant expedited reviews for data-center grid connections, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News. Under a draft proposed rule Wright sent to the agency, those reviews would be limited to 60 days, a seismic shift for a process that currently can drag on for years.

• In Exchanges: COIN was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $404 from $342 as it looks ahead to emerging monetization opportunities and abating risks at what it sees is an attractive valuation versus Cryptocurrency peers; calls out two opportunities it sees Coinbase as exploring as sees Coinbase exploring a Base token and sees Coinbase further exploring its USDC payouts.
• Crypto miners: CIFR shares rose after Trading firm Jane Street disclosed a 5% stake in CIFR late on Thursday; Jane Street is now CIFR’s third-largest shareholder after V3 Holding and Vanguard Group. Jane Street also disclosed a 5% stake each in BITF now the biggest stakeholder and a 5% stake in HUT, as Jane Street is the fifth-largest shareholder – per Reuters.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled plans Friday to make its models and scenarios for subjecting large banks to annual "stress tests" publicly available and responsive to feedback, a major shift in its efforts to make the tests more transparent. The proposed changes, which the Fed board is expected to vote on later Friday, would shine a light on a critical regulatory tool established following the 2008 financial crisis. The test results each year help set capital requirements for large banks, based on how well they perform in a hypothetical economic downturn

• DLR’s 3Q25 results beat expectations; leasing of $162 below consensus of $206M, while all other metrics beat consensus. From Keybanc’s perspective, given DLR’s steady execution and likely continued strong growth profile, the stock’s premium valuation multiple is warranted.
• EGP reported 3Q25 FFO of $2.27, a slight beat vs. consensus, and management affirmed its FY25 FFO midpoint by narrowing the range by $0.05 at both ends. Cash SPNOI growth improved sequentially to 6.9%, though occupancy decreased 20 bps sequentially and rent spreads moderated.
• PECO kicked off Retail REIT earnings with an in-line 3Q FFO result, though management raised FY25 Core FFO guidance by 0.6% at the midpoint. SSNOI growth moderated 90bps to 3.3%, though the portfolio’s leased rate climbed to 97.6% (+20bps sequentially), and leasing activity was strong including 23.2% renewal spread.
• Mall REITs: Jefferies noted Sept mall traffic index showed despite easier comps, mall foot traffic declined 4.3% Y/Y, a bigger drop from Aug (-0.8% Y/Y). SPG posted the smallest drop in traffic (-4.1%), followed by MAC (-4.2%) and SKT (-4.7%). Dept store traffic slowed to -7.3% Y/Y (vs. -3.1% in Aug), while specialty retail traffic slipped -1% Y/Y. Athletic apparel traffic declined -7.8% Y/Y (vs. flat in Aug) and restaurant traffic was down.

• GSK announced the FDA delivered a split decision on its blood cancer drug Blenrep, approving its use in combination with a medicine called Velcade, but rejecting it when used with a different treatment called Pomalyst.
• INBX share jumped after said it announced positive topline results from the registrational ChonDRAgon study investigating ozekibart as a single agent versus placebo in patients with advanced or metastatic, unresectable chondrosarcoma.
• INCY and LLY results showed once-daily, oral baricitinib 4 mg helped the majority of adolescent patients with severe alopecia areata achieve successful hair regrowth on the scalp, eyebrows and eyelashes at one year. These 52-week results from the BRAVE-AA-PEDS trial – the largest Phase 3 study of its kind – will be presented at the 2025 Fall Clinical Dermatology Conference.
• KOD was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and raise tgt to $24 from $15 as believes KSI-101 (anti-IL-6 / VEGF-trap bispecific) in macular edema secondary to inflammation (MESI) is de-risked and could drive upside as the opportunity is better appreciated (key tenet to its Overweight thesis).
• In secondary offerings priced: COYA prices 3.6M shares at $5.50 each; XFOR prices $135M offering at $2.90 each.

• In MedTech: INSP was downgraded to Hold at Jefferies, supported by its US sleep survey + sleep/ENT doc checks, which points to expects for ongoing HWs from GLP-1 uptake, competitor shr gains, and muted expectations on Inspire 5-related vol growth.
• In Telehealth: TDOC announced a CFO transition, reaffirmed its 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook and provided preliminary Q3 results; provided preliminary Q3’25 results that included revenue of $626.4M and adj-EBITDA of $69.9M – compares to revenue guidance of $614-$636M and adj-EBITDA guidance of $56-$70M.

• Construction & Engineering: FIX reported another very strong quarter: top line +35%, EBITDA margin 16.9% (+150 bps q/q and +380 bps y/y), and a 1.5x BTB. Backlog is +56% YTD (mechanical +45%, electrical +98%). Results reflect strength of demand and its superior execution capabilities.
• In Transports: ALK shares fell after cutting 2025 adjusted profit view to at least $2.40 per share, compared with its previous projection of more than $3.25 per share citing higher fuel costs and operational challenges after Q3 profit missed.

• In Defense: GD reported Q3 EPS of $3.88, beating analysts’ estimates of $3.70, saying growth in its aerospace segment revenue and margin was driven by strong business jet deliveries; Q3 revs of $12.91B also topped consensus expectation of $12.57B; said its total estimated contract value was $167.7 billion at the end of the quarter, including a backlog of $109.9 billion.
• In Drone space: shares of UMAC jumped midday after the Financial Times reported Unusual Machines, in which Trump Jr has held a $4M stake, said it had been contracted by the US Army to manufacture 3,500 drone motors, alongside various other drone parts. The company added that the Army indicated it planned to order an additional 20,000 components from Unusual Machines next year. https://tinyurl.com/3us9kkxu

• In Lithium & Rare Earth: SGML was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to $7 from $10 saying Q2 left the firm concerned as cash ran low and DPOs were high. SGML also ended its mining contractor relationship, creating further uncertainty about operations and financing, raising liquidity risks. Redburn said they believe the lithium market is at its cyclical bottom. The massive supply additions of the past three years have resulted in sizeable oversupply, pushing prices down to five-year lows. Redburn initiated ALB with Buy and $135 tgt and SQM with a Neutral rating.
• In Precious Metals: gold miner NEM shares fell after guiding attributable gold production for 2026 that’s expected to be within the same guidance range provided for 2025, due to the planned mine sequence at its managed operations; gold and silver prices posted strong rebounds off overnight lows of around -2% after the September CPI inflation data came in “cooler” than expected, keeping rate cut cycle view intact.

• e-Comm & Consumer App sector: Stifel said they prefer CART into the Q3 print and believe the bar is low (it doesn’t expect AMZN impact yet), and it is downgrading LIF to a Hold rating as it believes current valuations have run ahead of the timing of upcoming growth initiatives (more ads, pet trackers, elder care), but it is still believers in the long-term story. EBAY was upgraded to Market Outperform, $115 PT at Citizens as it believes eBay’s product work is creating a significantly better consumer experience in Focus categories that can drive mid-single-digit GMV growth in 2026, which leaves US two points ahead of consensus.
• In Media: DIS warned ESPN, other networks may go out on YouTube TV at the end of the month. YouTube TV wants more favorable terms to carry Disney’s networks given its recent growth. YouTube TV has about 10 million subscribers, CNBC reported.

• In Memory/HDD sector: more positive analyst comments on space as Bernstein raises STX tgt from $250 to $275, and WDC to $120 from $96. The firm said data explosion is fueling data storage demand. Total storage capacity shipped for NAND and HDDs grew 55% CAGR from 1998-2013 before moderating to 14% from 2013-2024. Bernstein expects this to re-accelerate to 19% CY 2024-30 with data center (23%) outpacing on-device (10%), as the richer content created, longer retention required and stricter data sovereignty commanded plus AI altogether drive the next wave of mass capacity storage demand. Believe STX’s stronger position in HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) should drive gross margin and market share upside relative to WDC.