Closing Recap

Monday, September 15, 2025

The U.S. stock market party rages on, continuing its push as the S&P gapped higher on the open for a 9^th straight day and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) closed higher for a 9^th straight day as markets remain confident in the start of an interest rate easing cycle by the Fed starting this Wednesday. The S&P 500, Nasdaq touched record highs again Monday while the Dow is just below its record best last week as the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, marking the first move this year and continuing the easing cycle that began with a hefty 50 bps cut on Sept. 18, 2024, following weeks of slowing US economic data. Investors/traders have shown zero market fear with stocks at all-time highs, gold record highs, bonds rallying, sending yields lower and Bitcoin about 9% away from its August record highs. Strength remains concentrated in Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) over the last 2 months, though Financials (XLF) have also touched record highs (JPM, GS, MS, BAC) and Utilities (XLU) and Industrials (XLI) remain big YTD winners. No real news drivers today outside of Tesla, but that didn’t stop shares of other Mag 7 names to surge led. Tesla (TSLA) rose third day after a filing showed CEO Elon Musk had amassed nearly $1 billion worth of the stock last week, but AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT climbed again on no news. Still no fear for market valuations despite Charlie Bilello noting on “X”, “the S&P 500’s price to peak earnings ratio has moved up to 27.3, its highest level since 2000 and 59% above the historical median.” Also, Bilello noted on “X”, “the only period in US history with higher valuations than today: 1999-2000 during the dot-com mania. Back then, the Fed was hiking rates. Today, the Fed is cutting rates. Is this about to become the biggest bubble of all time?” Lots of interesting stats, but stocks just keep pushing higher…stay tuned.

• China retail sales rose by 3.4% or its slowest on-year pace since last November (est. 3.8%; prev. 3.7%), while industrial production increased similarly by a lackluster 5.2% from a year ago (est. 5.6%; prev. 5.7%). Fixed asset investment growth slowed to almost a standstill of 0.5% from 1.6% previously, as the slump in property investment deepened to -12.9%, compared with -12% in July.

• Precious metals rose as December gold rose $32.40 or 0.87% to settle at a new all-time high of $3,719 an ounce ahead of the FOMC policy meeting Wednesday, while in industrial metals, copper jumps to its highest level in nearly 15 months. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) held at the lows this afternoon, -0.35% to 97.276 – coming up on the 9-9 low of 97.253.
• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $63.30/bbl, rising $0.61 or 0.97% while Brent crude gained $0.45 of 0.67% to settle at $67.44 per barrel. Front Month Nymex Natural gas rose 3.47% to settle at $3.0430 per million British thermal units (up 11 of last 14 sessions).

• In Specialty Retail: in mattress retailers (SGI, LEG, SNBR, W), Piper noted its Mattress Retailer survey for August posted mean/median sales growth of +7.2%/+6.0% y/y – the 5th consecutive month of positive y/y growth. Importantly, mattress units were positive y/y for the 2nd month in a row. Piper reiterated its Overweight ratings on W and SGI and raise its price target on SGI to $100 (25x 2027E EPS).
• In Food & Consumer Products: HAIN shares stumbled after reporting Q4 sales fell -13% y/y to $363M, missing the $371M estimate a posted unexpected quarterly loss of (-$0.02) vs. est. $0.03 and organic sales fell -11%; said implements turnaround strategy focusing on portfolio streamlining and digital capabilities. BYND was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Argus as faces challenges from lower demand for plant-based protein amid uneven economic conditions, as many customers are trading down to cheaper proteins. CL, STZ, FLO, CAVA, MKC, THS among consumer names hitting 52-week lows today.

• In Household Appliances: WHR told the Trump administration that overseas competitors may be evading tariff bills by undervaluing their imports, the WSJ reported. Its claims are based on federal data from import paperwork, which shows garbage disposals from China dropped from an average of $21 the first few months of the year to $9 in June, gas ranges from Thailand more than halved to $175, and washing machines from South Korea sank from $838 to $73, according to the Journal’s review of data.

• In Casinos & Gaming (WYNN, LVS, MGM, CZR): Truist noted while its latest LV Strip survey still shows a soft Vegas summer continuing into Oct, its first Nov read suggests modest improvements. This aligns with management commentary pointing to Nov as a potential Q4 inflection following a Q3 similar to Q2. W/W trends are also (mostly) improving likely fueled by the shorter booking windows. That said, Truist has limited data so far for Oct/NOV and trends could change meaningfully W/W.
• In Towables/RVs: BMO Capital said they think overall retail unit sales at the Hershey RV show were down about MSD% y/y, below expectations following two consecutive months of better-than-expected retail results in June and July. BMO thinks a combination of less aggressive promotions y/y, unchanged y/y retail financing rates, and higher MY26 MSRPs pressured retail results. However, there were some positives, with CWH continuing to outperform and strong feedback around THO’s new product rebrands.

• Utility and Nuclear sector: Shares of CEG, LEU, NNE, OKLO, SMR, TLN, VST were higher in strong sector. The US and Britain are going to sign an agreement to make it quicker for companies in both countries to build nuclear power stations when President Donald Trump visits this week. Both countries will use each other’s safety assessments of reactor designs to fast-track their own checks, which should speed up the licensing time for nuclear projects to two years from three or four years, according to the UK government. Bloomberg reported the U.S. looks to boost national strategic uranium stockpile (UUUU, CCJ, UEC).

• In Consumer Finance: JPM said credit card delinquency rate 0.83% at August end and its credit card charge-off rate 1.78% in august – as per SEC filing; BAC said credit card delinquency rate was 1.36% at August end and credit card charge-off rate was 2.39% in August. Citigroup Inc (C) credit card charge-offs 2.38 % in August and credit card delinquency rate 1.36% at August end.
• In Lending: CACC said Consumer Loan Performance for July and August generally consistent with trends reported in recent quarters; says continue to monitor consumer loan performance closely.

• GLUE shares rise after saying it has entered into an agreement to collaborate with NVS to develop drugs for immune-mediated diseases; deal includes an upfront payment of $120M to Monte Rosa, with the company eligible for a total of up to $5.7B in milestones and option payments across programs.
• HIMS shares dropped after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said a widely watched TV commercial by the telehealth firm earlier this year breached the agency’s regulations.
• OCGN enters into a licensing agreement granting Kwangdong Pharmaceutical exclusive rights in South Korea to its experimental gene therapy, OCU400, for treating retinitis pigmentosa; Ocugen will receive up to $7.5 million in upfront licensing fees and near-term development milestones.
• UNH is hiring President Trump’s allies and trying to plead its case directly with top administration officials, The Wall Street Journal reported. UnitedHealth faces government probes and changes in federal payments that have hurt its results.

• In Industrials: Truist noted earnings warning from CNM and very weak commentary from HVAC producer CARR has raised questions on FERG’s upcoming earnings. Truist believes residential HVAC will be weak 12% of sales) albeit cushioned by FERG’s position as a distributor while residential water works slowing (part of the 22% of sales) will be somewhat offset by cross-sell.

• In Paper & Packaging: Bank America noted Random Lengths’ (RL) Weekly Report showed that its Framing Lumber composite was lower compared to last week – Lumber and plywood prices down in RL; OSB flat (BCC, LPX, PCH, WY). SW was initiated at Buy and $60 tgt at UBS noting last year, Smurfit bought WestRock to turn around underperforming assets & drive a re-rating. >1yr later, that re-rating has not yet materialized; thinks 2026 US containerboard prices will lift ~4% on a tightening supply outlook.
• In Steel sector: Bank America raised its price tgts for CMC, NUE and CLF ahead of Q3’25 guidance releases anticipated this week. While Bofa increases its Q3’25/Q4’25 hot-rolled coil (HRC) price forecast by 3%/2%, it cut its 2025E EBITDA/EPS by 12%/10% on average, mainly on higher costs. Despite its cautious cost outlook, it raises multiples to reflect the ongoing re-rating higher in steel equities on anticipation for US rate cuts.

• In Hard disk drives/memory: Following SNDK’s 10% NAND price hike and MU’s week-long pricing freeze, WDC has become the third company to act, notifying customers that it will gradually raise prices on all HDD products effective immediately, according to industry sources, reported TrendForce. Bank America raised its C25 HDD EB shipment forecast to 1,602EB (+28% y/y) from 1,575EB 26% y/y) and see room for further upside as demand continues to outpace supply.
• In AI/Data Centers: CRWV and NVDA entered into a new $6.3B order under their 2023 Master Services Agreement, giving Nvidia rights to purchase any unused CoreWeave datacenter capacity through April 2032. Separately, CRWV was named Catalyst Call Buy idea at Deutsche Bank as see a few positive factors coming together to support significant upward revenue/RPO revisions over the next quarter or two. In another piece of news for CRWV, short seller Kerrisdale Capital noted they were short shares in blog post.
• In Software: Jefferies said their initial checks, along with a management meeting, reinforce the view that Unity’s (U) Vector product is driving the company toward an ad business turning point. Feedback from one smaller advertiser showed a 20–25% improvement in ROAS using Vector, though Jefferies cautions the sample size is limited. A larger advertiser still allocates less than 5% of its budget to Unity but is expanding, testing across half its portfolio, which Jefferies sees as a positive sign of engagement.
• In Internet: shares of GOOGL hit $3 trillion market cap for the first time ever; Citigroup raised its tgt to $280 given their view that Google’s product velocity is ramping amid greater clarity around its legal and regulatory challenges in what we believe is a relatively healthy online advertising market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said following the second day of talks that the U.S. and China had reached a commercial agreement that would put TikTok, the app used by 170 million Americans that is currently owned by ByteDance, in the hands of an American owner to address national security concerns.