Closing Recap

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

US equities reversed overnight off yesterday’s gains as concerns grew around whether Congress and the President will be able to avoid a government shutdown. By mid-morning, following a slightly, superficially stronger JOLTS report but slightly softer Consumer Confidence, stocks were back to flattish. The Expectations component of the confidence report remained below 80, often viewed as a recession risk signal but the confidence spread remained strongly positive at 56.4. Breadth held slightly in favor of decliners by 7:6 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.33%) versus SPY (-0.09%) and QQQ (-0.21%). Sector performance was neutral. Health Care (+1.18%), Technology (+0.26%) and Materials (+0.19%) were outperformers, while Financials (-0.33%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.70%) and Energy (-1.41%) paced the underperformers with 6 sectors gaining versus 5 declining. In sentiment today, the Fear & Greed Index was 51/100 (Neutral), compared to 58 (Greed) last week and 60 (Greed) last month.

In data of interest, per @charliebilello, the concentration at the top continues to growth with 39% of the S&P 500 Index now accounted for by the top ten holdings, marking the highest concentration yet. Similarly, @DataTrekMB noted the top 20 global tech stocks by market cap make up 28.4% of the MSCI All Country Index versus 26.6% at the beginning of the year. Lastly, in advance of a potential government shutdown, @RyanDetrick and @WSJMarkets noted while a government shutdown may impact GDP growth, the good news is it often comes back quickly once the shutdown ends.

Into the final hour of trading, stocks were mixed. Breadth continued to favor decliners, still at just 7:6,  as small caps remained the underperformers with IWM (-0.24%) versus SPY (+0.22%) and QQQ (+0.07%). Sector performance improved, though, with Health Care (+2.55%), Industrials (+0.62%) and Consumer Staples (+0.48%) leading, while Financials (-0.53%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.55%) and Energy (-1.26%) lagged with 8 sectors gaining versus 3 declining. Now we have to wait to see what happens with shutdown negotiations and whether we get more rounds of economic data or whether Fed watchers are left to wonder. A green close today seems to say the market is optimistic.

• JOLTS job openings 7.227MM, vs. the expected 7.2MM and vs. prior 7.208MM; 157K more unemployed than job openings, the most since March 2021.
• Consumer Confidence Index slid to 94.2 in September from 97.8 in August (revised from 97.4), worse than the 96.0 consensus.
• July S&P Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) Case-Shiller Home Price Index for 20 cities (seasonally adjusted): (-0.1%) M/M vs. (-0.2%) consensus and (-0.2%) in June (revised from -0.3%), according to data released on Tuesday. Index for 20 cities (non-adjusted): +0.3% M/M vs. 0.0% in June. +1.8% Y/Y vs. +1.7% consensus and +2.2% in the prior month (revised from +2.1%).
• The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index fell (-0.1%) M/M in July, compared with the -0.2% expected and -0.2% prior (unrevised), according to data released on Tuesday. From a year ago, house prices gained 2.3%, decelerating from +2.6% Y/Y in June.

• WTI crude futures rolled overnight and extended declines on supply fears during the trading session as OPEC+ was said to be considering a 500,000 barrel per day output hike for each of the next three months. November futures settled -$1.08/bbl, or -1.7%, at $62.37.

• In Beverages: CELH was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley saying they see another leg up in the stock driven by a greater than expected (and what’s priced in) reacceleration in scanner and topline growth ahead. Brand Celsius has returned to growth following last year’s share slowdown, and the firm expects further improvement, with much easier comps from December through early June.
• In Beauty and Personal Products: COTY launched a strategic review of its consumer beauty business, as it plans to focus on the more profitable fragrances unit. Its review will focus on the $1.2 billion mass color cosmetics segment, and will explore all options, including partnerships, divestitures, and spin-offs.
• In Food: UNFI reported Q4 sales $7.7B vs. est. $7.64B and EPS loss of (-$0.11) was narrower than the expected (-$0.18) loss and said costs related to the cyber incident earlier this year impacted Q4 results
• In Restaurants: CAVA was defended at Jefferies saying they see an attractive buying oppty in stock following the pullback that has been largely SSS driven, which we expect to improve through ’26+. Demand concerns across Fast Casual are weighing, but skepticism re: CAVA appears overblown as fundamentals beyond comp remain attractive w/the LT algo still intact

• In Leisure products: MTN reported a disappointing F4Q, with FY26 Resort Adj. EBITDA guidance introduced -2% below Consensus at the midpoint while updated Epic Pass sales were slightly below prior guidance.
• In Food Delivery/ride hailing: DASH unveiled a delivery robot in the shape of a cheese wheel and a smart scale for restaurants, showcasing the company’s effort to develop hardware; CART was downgraded to Neutral at BTIG citing a wave of competitive moves by AMZN, DASH and UBER that now account for an estimated 25%+ of CART’s GOV, with the figure rising to ~40% when including Uber-Costco.
• In Casinos/Online gaming: DKNG, FLUT, SRAD, GENI, PENN shares pull back on reports Kalshi Football volumes are ramping since week 1 and now they are launching parlays to complement the Moneyline bets. Also note, HOOD announced ~$2B of prediction markets volumes for Q2 in Sept trading volume updates while also said explores launching prediction markets outside the US.

• In MLPs/Pipelines: Goldman Sachs Initiated GLNG ($54 tgt), the only public pure-play owner and operator of floating LNG (FLNG) production units at Buy as it meets an essential, but niche, demand for third-party FLNG services. Also, reinstate HESM at Neutral ($36 tgt) as see upside from strong contracts, set against softer oil and mixed outlook for the Bakken. Finally, resume coverage of OKE at Neutral as await clarity on its cash flow outlook and for earnings multiple to stabilize. 12m target price, $75.
• In Nuclear/Power sector: OKLO was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank America and downgraded SMR from Neutral to Underperform arguing that valuations have stretched too far as investors pile into SMR names tied to the AI/data center narrative. BofA’s reverse DCF analysis implies ~50GW of combined deployments by 2040, roughly 7% higher than the 47GW global base case, suggesting the market is already discounting aggressive ramps.
• In Utilities: CNP said it expanded its customer-driven capital investment plan to a record $65B through 2035, which represents an increase of nearly 40% compared to the capital plan introduced at its 2021 Analyst Day; raises FY25 EPS view to $1.74-$1.76 (the increase in capex positive for PWR, PRIM, MTZ, etc.)

• In Payments: FIS was upgraded to Buy at UBS after having been Neutral rated due to a fair valuation, balanced risk-reward, and multiple quarters of uneven results. However, with FIS shares down ~20% YTD, in part impacted by a degree of more recent selling pressure associated with tax loss harvesting, UBS believes FIS shares now represent a more attractive risk reward.
• In Crypto: BKKT shares jumped again after Benchmark raised its PT to $40 saying shares still screening as inexpensive after rally, with upside optionality stemming from Three Big Drivers: Crypto Infrastructure, Bitcoin Treasury, and Stablecoin Payments.

• LFMD announced it is expanding its NVO partnership to offer Ozempic via telehealth at $499/mo for uninsured & cash-pay patients. Follows May launch of Wegovy at $299/mo.
• U.S. President Donald Trump will announce an agreement with PFE on Tuesday to voluntarily sell the company’s medications through Medicaid at lower prices, the Washington Post reported, citing sources.

• In Industrials/Machinery: CRH shares rose after saying it now expects 2026-2030 average annual revenue growth between 7% and 9%; also reaffirmed 2025 forecast, including adj. EBITDA of $7.5B-$7.7B. In ag space, AGCO shares slipped following comments about North American markets being tough at 2025 tech Day, which weighed on shares of DE, CNH as well.

• TDG was initiated at Outperform and $1,420 tgt at BMO Capital saying while visibility is limited, large scale M&A should eventually materialize and serve as a re-rating catalyst. In the interim, patient investors can collect healthy distributions, while price and productivity drive margin expansion.
• In Gov’t IT services (CACI, LDOS, PSN, SAIC): Truist said they recommend buying shares if the group is weak on subpar B2Bs in Q3 (1x-1.3x vs 1.5x historical avg.), a potential government shutdown and lengthy continuing resolution (CR), all else equal. Truist said they anticipate B2Bs improving in 1H26 and organic growth accelerating ~3 pts. in Q326-Q127.

• In Precious Metals: Citigroup raised its gold forecast to $4,000/oz and silver to $55/oz on a 0–3-month basis after reaching Citi’s bullish $3,800/oz gold and $45/oz silver price forecast targets. Citi suggests remaining tactically bullish near-term while cyclical and structural tailwinds remain intact.
• In Lithium/Uranium: UUUU shares fell after announced their intent to offer $550M aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 in a private placement. ALB shares fell after Bloomberg reported Chinese authorities have green-lit reserve reports from two major lithium producers operating in the mining hub of Yichun, easing concerns around output disruptions.
• In Industrial Metals: FCX was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America with unchanged tgt of $42, coming away from meetings increasingly confident that the current valuation sufficiently prices the key risks around its temporarily halted Grasberg copper/gold mine in Indonesia. China’s state iron ore buyer has told major steelmakers and traders to temporarily pause purchases of any dollar-denominated seaborne iron ore cargoes from BHP, Bloomberg News reported. China is the world’s largest iron ore consumer and buys about 75% of global seaborne iron ore, while BHP is the world’s largest listed miner.

• In Telecom/Satellite: SATS shares rose after VZ is said to be in discussions with the company about purchasing some of its wireless spectrum per Bloomberg.

• In Software: PATH shares jumped after announcing a partnership with SNOW, uniting UiPath’s Agentic Automation platform with Snowflake Cortex. UiPath also announced a collaboration with MSFTbacked OpenAI to build a ChatGPT connector integrating OpenAI frontier models with enterprise customer workflows, powered by UiPath enterprise orchestration.

• NVDA had its price tgt raised to $250 from $230 at Keybanc, pointing to stronger-than-expected CoWoS supply growth into 2025/26. The firm says rack yields at GB plants are supporting ~30K rack shipments in 2025 and at least 50K in 2026, underpinning capacity expansion. Also, NVDA tgt was raised to $210 from $200 at Citigroup, citing a more constructive stance on AI infrastructure spending and the upcoming Rubin CPX GPU launch. The firm says it now models October/January quarters at $54B/$62B in sales and lifted CY26/27 forecasts modestly to reflect its higher capex assumptions.
• SMTC was upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $81 PT following management meetings saying the tone was bullish as CEO Hong Hou detailed strategic growth opportunities led by Active Copper Cable (ACC) and Linear Pluggable Optics (LPO) for DC AI.