Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

U.S. stocks open mixed as the Dow edges higher, but the S&P and Nasdaq turn lower after a massive surge on Monday, as shares of AI related plays and data centers weaken after results from CRWV/NBIS and news that Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. CRWV cut its annual rev forecast saying it faced delays with a key data center partner which weighed on shares. The US dollar index (DXY) slipped amid concerns about the deteriorating U.S. labor market after a report showed that private employers cut jobs last month. ADP Research said that its preliminary estimates show that private employers shed an average of -11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending October 25. It comes as the federal government moves closer to reopening, which will unleash a flood of economic data that may point to a slowing economy. The U.S. Senate approved a compromise on Monday that would end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, as the bill next heads to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has said he would like to pass it as soon as Wednesday and send it on to U.S. President Trump to sign into law. Crypto assets (Bitcoin) and miners seeing weakness after results in space and more “risk-off” trading. Energy stocks (XLE, XOM) leading the S&P 500 as oil prices advance. Note trading volumes may be lower today with the U.S. bond market closed for the Veterans Day holiday.

• U.S. NFIB Small Business Outlook index fell -0.7% to 98.2 in October, following a -2.0% drop in September to 98.9, but gains in the prior two months of 0.5% to 100.8 in August and of 1.7% to 100.3 in July.

• In Lending: SOFI announced the launch of Sofi Crypto, becoming the first and only nationally chartered Bank where consumers can Bank, borrow, invest — and now buy, sell and hold crypto — all in one Place and on a Platform they Trust. @KobeissiLetter tweets: “US consumer delinquencies are surging: 3.0% of Auto loans transitioned into 90+ days delinquency in Q3 2025, the highest in 15 years. At the same time, 7.1% of credit Card debt became seriously delinquent, near the highest in 14 years. Student loan serious delinquencies spiked +13.5 percentage points YoY, to 14.3%, an all-time high. This followed the expiration of the student loan relief period, as missed payments began reappearing on credit reports.” (auto lender companies include ALLY, SYF, credit cards V, MA, COF, AXP student loans SLM, NAVI).
• Energy stocks jumped alongside a bounce in oil prices as newswires reported the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, although oversupply concerns limited gains. In news, OXY beat Q3 profit estimates as higher production helped the U.S. shale producer counter weaker oil prices; SOC shares advanced after the Washington Post reported the Trump administration is drafting a plan to resume offshore oil drilling along California’s coast for the first time in decades. Broad strength early in oil complex with refiners, majors, equipment, drillers and E&P names edging higher.
• In Chemicals: LIN was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS as it believes the stock is at an attractive 2.5x up/downside skew, and it thinks an acceleration in EPS growth in 2026 will be a positive catalyst. MOS was downgraded to Neutral from overweight at JP Morgan and lowers tgt to $26 from $37 saying phosphate prices have been moving lower from recent peaks and demand for phosphate products in the US is fragile with phosphate prices high by historical standards and Farmer balance sheets weak.

• ENGN +68%; said its localized gene therapy induced a complete response in 62% of patients with a type of bladder cancer, measured at six months. The company plans to report 12-month data in the second half of next year, and if positive, seek regulatory approvals.
• PSKY +12%; Q3 streaming profitability was ahead; said to invest over $1.5B in programming to enhance streaming and revitalize film studio; guided revenue above the Street in Q4, while also beating initial 2026 consensus by ~$500M on both the top and bottom lines.
• REAL +24%; shares rose on results as Q3 revs rose 17% y/y to $174M vs. est. $170.5M; Q3 GMV increased 20% compared to the same period in 2024; Q3 adj EBITDA margin rose to 5.4%, reflecting operational efficiency; raises FY25 rev guidance to between $687M-$690M.
• RKLB +7%; posted 3Q results and 4Q guidance above the Street, with revenue above the high-end of its previous guidance, and up 48% y/y. Electron had another solid quarter, with 17 launches added to backlog (~$145M), ASPs trending higher, 4 launches completed in 3Q (16 to date) and 20+ on track in 2025.
• SOC +15%; after the Washington Post reported the Trump administration is drafting a plan to resume offshore oil drilling along California’s coast for the first time in decades.
• SRDX +49%; after Private equity firm GTCR can move forward with its acquisition of the Medical device coatings maker, a federal judge in Chicago ruled on Monday, rejecting the U.S. FTC’s bid to block the deal.

• CRWV -13%; shares fall as reported a narrower-than-expected Q3 EPS loss (-$0.22) vs. est. loss (-$0.51) on better revs of $1.36B with record backlog to more than $55B but cuts FY25 revenue view to $5.05B-$5.15B from $5.15B-$5.35B (vs. est. $5.29B) saying it faced delays with a key data center partner.
• NBIS -5%; Q3 revs $146.1M vs est. $155.1M, announced a new agreement to deliver Ai infrastructure to META valued at about $3B over 5 years, said it will be putting in place at-the-market equity program for up to 25M Class A shares; said now expect to have over 2.5gw of contracted power by end of 2026.
• NVDA -1%; shares slipped after Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself but was a necessary financing measure.
• OM -45%; as delivered a ~4% revenue miss, and lowered 2025 guide by 5% due to delayed closing of several large deals forecasted for 2H’25E and potential impact from the Q4 departure of Head of Sales.
• VOR -49%; after selling 10M shares of stock at $10.00, 46.8% below stock’s last close of $18.80 and said intends to use net offering proceeds to advance clinical development for its drug, Telitacicept.