Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, October 16, 2025

U.S. stocks trade overnight and holding gains to start, building on the rebound in markets yesterday as strength in tech supports major averages along with utilities for AI power needs, while financials fall the most in the S&P after earnings in regionals disappoint (KEY, CBSH, SNV). The AI narrative continues to drive market enthusiasm while China clarified rare earth restrictions which may actually help the trade dynamic. For tech today, TSM reported solid results and raised guidance, CRM shares jumped on its upbeat Analyst Day where they provided forward guide/ CAGR thru 2030. Crypto miners seeing a sharp pullback after the group rallied on use of its power for AI purposes. Several Fed speakers out this morning with Waller saying he’s on board with another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting later this month, while Miran says the Fed should cut 50bps but expect it will be 25bps noting tariffs may yet cause inflation but don’t see it yet. Transport index gets a boost behind better results/guidance from JBHT in trucking, thought UAL dips on results. One constant has been gold and silver, continuing to push higher to new highs on a daily basis. A good start early with no early market dips, few economic data points to digest, and gov’t shutdown no on Day 16. Smallcaps Russell 2000 lagging early after posting record closing highs the last two days.

• U.S. October NAHB Housing market index 37 (consensus 33), the highest since April and versus 32 in September (previous 32); current single-family home sales 38 versus 34 in September; index of home sales over next six months 54 versus 45 in September.

• In Casinos & Gaming: LVS was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan with $60 tgt citing their more positive view on Singapore, balanced by its expectation that Macau est’s are reasonably set here. The firm also said RRR, WYNN, and RSI are gaming names they are most constructive into earnings as thinks fundamentals and mgmt commentary will be most positive. MGM said it has reached an agreement to sell the operations of MGM Northfield Park to private equity funds managed by Clairvest Group Inc. for $546M in cash, subject to customary purchase price adjustments.
• In Semis/memory: MU price tgt raised to $245 from $225 at UBS saying their latest round of industry checks points to a very robust demand environment being met by acute and worsening DRAM supply shortages. For DRAM, UBS has seen an additional uptick in legacy DDR demand projections from US hyperscalers w/ DDR bit demand now doubling Y/Y. UBS also upgraded Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) to Buy given it believes the memory industry is entering acute shortages from now and into 2026.
• In Utilities: AEP said it secured a $1.6B DOE loan guarantee to upgrade 5,000 miles of transmission lines across five states. The preferred rate financing will save customers $275M, create 1,100 jobs, and support 24 GW of new demand from AI, data centers, and manufacturing. ATO was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America citing the stock’s 22% premium valuation to its local gas distribution peers. TD Cowen initiated coverage of the U.S. Power and Utility sector with a positive bias saying PCG, VST top picks, buys on AEP, DUK, EIX, NEE, PEG, SO, XEL initiated with Buys as expects the need for robust infrastructure to be strong in the face of accelerated demand for electricity from data centers and the need to upgrade utility assets; expects power prices to remain elevated in key deregulated markets.

• CRM +6%; told investors at the company’s annual Dreamforce conference that it expects revenue of more than $60 billion in 2030. It also guided for an organic y/y revenue growth rate above 10% in 2026 through 2030. They also unveiled $7 billion share buyback program over next six months.
• DASH +4%; as partners with Waymo to launch an autonomous delivery service; now through the end of the year, DashPass members in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix can receive $10 off on one Waymo ride per month.
• GRAL +11%; and Samsung C&T signed a binding Letter of Intent for a strategic collaboration to bring GRAIL’s Galleri multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test to key Asian markets. SCT and SEC have also agreed to invest $110 million into GRAIL.
• JBHT +15%; shares rose after delivered an adjusted diluted EPS beat of nearly 21% to the Street and noted that the company is showing early progress on its plan to reduce $100M in structural costs and raised its 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates 11% and 7%, respectively.
• NSRGY +8%; shares surged after the food maker posted a stronger-than-expected increase in quarterly sales and announced plans to slash 16,000 jobs, just weeks after replacing its CEO.
• PRAX +226%; after saying its experimental drug for a type of movement disorder improved patients’ ability to perform daily tasks in two late-stage trials.
• SCHW +3%; reports Q3 adj. EPS of $1.31, beating analysts’ estimates of $1.25 on better revs $6.14B vs. est. $6.01B and said total client assets at $11.59 trillion, rising 17% y/y growth; Q3 total net new assets $134.4B, est. $130.25B.
• SE +6%; was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America with $215 tgt noting shares have been range bound for the last couple of months despite improving momentum on the ground/notes weakness yesterday on concerns of expansion in LatAm and slower margin uptake due to investment.

• CBSH -4%; Q3 EPS $1.06 vs. est. $1.10; Q3 net Income $141.518M vs. vs. est. $146.9M; Q3 revs $440.96M vs. EST $447.8M; Q3 net interest income $279.45M; and Q3 credit loss provision $20.061M.
• CMC -7%; said it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Foley Products Company for a cash purchase price of $1.84 billion, subject to customary purchase price adjustments.
• DFLI -26%; after prices $55.4M public offering at $1.35 per share.
• FOSL -25%; shares tumble after the company announced plans to extend the deadline to exchange its senior notes due 2026/the company has extended the deadline by a week to October 22.
• HPE -8%; shares fell after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for 2026 at its Analyst Day saying it expects FY26 adj EPS $2.20-$2.40 a share, with revenue growing between 5% and 10% which compared to estimates of $2.43 and revenue growth of 17%.
• TRV -3%; as Q3 EPS $8.14 tops est. $6.29 but revs $11.47B misses the $11.81B estimate; noted that underwriting income more than doubled to $1.4B pretax compared with the prior-year quarter, benefiting from both a lower level of catastrophe losses and higher underlying underwriting income.
• U -5%; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Arete with $36 tgt.
• ZION -5%; said it recently learned of legal actions taken by multiple banks and lenders against parties connected to two borrowers involved in two C&I loans from its CB&T division; the company decided to take a $60M provision for the full relationship and charge off $50M of the amount outstanding.