Mid-Morning Look

Friday, October 17, 2025

U.S. stocks were weaker overnight, extending Thursday’s sharp pullback with markets nervous by the drop in US regional bank stocks and hits to private-credit heavyweights raising contagion fears. Futures pressed lower overnight with more than 1% declines for S&P and Nasdaq futures as Spuz hit lows of 6,571.25 (below weekly 10/14 low of 6,593.25) on this option expiration Friday (but not below last Friday low of 6,540.25). Futures began to climb as regional bank earnings from CMA, FITB, RF and TFC showed no jump in provision losses, easing credit concern contagion in the sector after WAL, ZION results raised flags Thursday. Stock futures took another leg higher after comments from President Trump on tariff and trade with China with easing/soothing comments. The combination has pushed S&P futures more than 120 pints off morning lows. At the same time, the ceasing of concerns has reversed surging gold/silver prices lower as December gold prices fall -1.5% to $4,236 after hitting earlier record of $4,392 an ounce. The ongoing US government shutdown (now in Day 17) has left Wall Street and the Fed in the dark on the economic outlook with no data points again. Oil prices officially fall below $57 per barrel for the first time since May 5th but have since bounced. Bitcoin prices tumble and are down roughly -15% from record highs 2 weeks ago above $126K.

• In Metals & Mining: another overnight record high for gold prices (GLD), now up over 60% YTD and topping $4,350 an ounce for the first time ever this morning – giving a boost early to precious metal miners (NEM, AEM, AUY, CDE, PAAS, SVM) – but prices reversed sharply, taking precious metal prices lower along with those miners; in steel, CMC was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup with $65 tgt seeing an emerging FCF/deleveraging story post the transformational precast concrete acquisitions, while saying the main headwind is 600kt new rebar capacity arriving from Hybar—but manageable.
• In Aerospace, Drone: ASTS downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Barclays saying while direct-to-cellular will prove to be a very attractive opportunity and AST has key assets to succeed, the stock’s valuation has become excessive. LUNR was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank and raise tgt to $18 from $6 saying the see an attractive set-up for the next three to six months, supported by clear commercial catalysts for what it calls a secular winner in the space exploration market. RKLB price tgt raised to $75 from $50 at Keybanc after meeting mgmt at last week’s Catalina Space Mixer, saying its strong cash position supports its ongoing growth investments, potential M&A, and future endeavors.
• In Paper & Packaging sector: Raymond James downgraded shares of SON, GPK to Market Perform from OP and SLGN to Outperform from strong buy in the sector. For SON says both Q3 and 2025 EPS are projected below consensus due to weaker-than-expected contributions from SMP EMEA and softer volumes across other segments; for GPK, downgrade offers limited differentiation as sentiment on Graphic Packaging has already deteriorated; for SLGN, says while still constructive is taking a more conservative approach and is heeding some caution from discrete items that showed up in Q2. Separately, Stifel upgraded IP to Buy from Hold saying the company is approaching a pivot point for the strategic rethink to deliver profit and margin improvement.

• ARTV +97%; after the FDA granted fast track designation to its cell therapy AlloNK for treating refractory rheumatoid arthritis; over 20 patients tested with AlloNK plus antibody therapy across autoimmune trials, including RA and lupus- ARTV.
• AXP +3%; reported Q3 adj EPS $4.14 vs. est. $4.00, while revs rose 11% y/y to $18.43B vs est. $18.05B driven by increased card-member spending and card-fee growth, while Q3 provisions for credit losses $1.3B vs est. $1.41B; raised the lower end of its full-year rev guidance.
• CSX +2%; reported Q3 adj EPS $0.44 above est. $0.42 and revs slightly better falling -1% y/y to $3.59B but above est. $3.576B; Q3 volume totaled 1.61M units, up 1% y/y and up 2% sequentially.
• KZR +42%; announced a formal process to explore strategic alternatives given it could not align with the FDA on a registrational path for its asset in autoimmune hepatitis.
• TFC +3%; Q3 adj EPS $1.04 vs. est. $0.99; Q3 revs $5.24B vs. est. $5.22B; Q3 net interest margin (NIM) 3.01% vs. est. 3.04%; Q3 provision for credit losses $436M (vs. est. $484.9M); Q3 total average deposits $396.6B (vs. est. $400.09B); Q3 wealth management income rose 6.9% to $374M

• LLY -2%; along with weakness from NVO after President Trump said during a briefing on fertility treatments suggested the admin was negotiating much lower prices for their blockbuster obesity drugs.
• MU -2%; on reports it will stop supplying server chips to Chinese data centers after being targeted by a ban from Beijing on the use of its products in critical infrastructure, although it will continue to sell chips to automotive and smartphone customers in the country, Reuters reported.
• ORCL -6%; after rising 3% in the previous session as Oracle discussed the outlook for the next five years and weighed in on cloud margins.
• OZK -4%; reported weaker results as Q3 EPS $1.59 missed est. $1.66, and NII $365.545Mm vs est. $413.71Mm prompting a downgrade at Raymond James noting next year’s EPS forecast was reduced by roughly 12% due to softer loan growth expectations, higher expenses, and lower net interest income.
• VLVLY -6%; lowered its forecast for the North American truck market to around 265K, about 10,000 fewer than prior view, while keeping its European view unchanged at around 290K.
• WULF -3%; as crypto mining stocks tumbled overnight as Bitcoin prices dropped below $104,000 before paring losses and rebounding; CIFR, CLSK, IREN, MARA, RIOT among names with early weakness.