Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

U.S. stocks open mixed after rallying all day on Monday to close around the highs in a broad-based rally, while today only seeing modest weakness for tech and Smallcaps after a round of mostly better earnings results. Among early weakness are metals, especially gold and silver miners as prices tumble in what has been a very volatile week. Gold slumps more than 4% and sharper declines for silver just a day after more than 3% gains. Over the last 5 days GLD has seen moves of +1.73%, +2.34%, -1.88%, +3.64%, and now down over 3% again. @charliebilello noted on “X”, the Gold ETF (GLD) ended yesterday’s session at its most overbought level on record (monthly RSI). Also seeing pullbacks in recent market winners as AI power nuclear names tumble (OKLO, TLN, SMR, VST) as well as data center/crypto miner plays (CIFR, CLSK, IREN, WULF) and a little dip in semi (SOX) after hitting record highs this week. Treasury yields fall and the dollar strengthens as the government shutdown continues while the data vacuum is expected to remain in place until Friday, when CPI is set to be released. The Fed is forecast to cut interest rates next week and trade talk with China appears to have improved. The 10-year yield remains below 4%, at 3.972%, while the two-year is at 3.455%. NFLX kicks off the earnings season along with TXN tonight in tech. Among earnings winners this morning, CCK, GE, GM, HAL and RTX while decliners include DGX, ELV, NOC, and PM.

• In Solar/Renewables/Alt Power: SPWR shares rocketed higher after better Q3 results posting adj operating income $3.12M vs. a (-$7M) loss last year and revs $70M above Q2 $67.5M and sees further rev growth in Q4; Citigroup upgraded shares of NXT and RUN to Buy, and downgraded CSIQ, SMR to Sell while update its estimates ahead of earnings. Citi said they prefer OKLO over SMR, FSLR over CSIQ, RUN over ENPH, NXT over ARRY, and SHLS (BESS exposure) over FLNC. Citi maintains its Sell rating on PLUG and caution investors that its recent stock performance appears to be fueled by an AI related rally in H2 companies – but does not see any direct benefits to PLUG from AI/datacenter-related spending.
• In Oil Services & Equipment: HAL Q3 EPS $0.58 topped est. $0.50, helped by steady demand for its oilfield equipment and services in North America; Q3 revs from its North America segment was $2.4B, about the same as a year earlier, which came above analysts’ average estimate of $2.17B. LBRT was upgraded to Buy, PT to $21 at Citigroup saying the focus of LBRT’s Q3 call was the decision to raise power investment toward $1.5B (targeting >1GW of capacity by YE 2027) even without a contract in hand.
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• FLR +2%; after the WSJ reported that activist investment firm Starboard Value had acquired a nearly 5% stake in FLR and said it would push Fluor to realize value from a 40% stake it owns in fast-growing nuclear engineering firm NuScale Power (SMR). https://tinyurl.com/bddk9shm
• GM +14%; Q3 adj. EPS of $2.8 beats analysts’ estimates of $2.31, while quarterly revs of $48.59B topped the $45.26B estimate; raised its annual core profit forecast to $12.0B-$13.0B from prior $10B-$12.5B view saying expects lower hit from tariffs; raised 2025 adj. EPS forecast to $9.75-$10.50 from $8.25-$10.00.
• KO +3%; reported Q3 EPS $0.82 vs. est. $0.78 on better revs of $12.5B vs. est. $12.39B as operating income increased 59%, driven by organic revenue growth and cost management and guided 2025 organic revenue growth (non-Gaap) of 5% to 6%.
• NERV +242%; after saying it will receive up to $200M in gross proceeds through a private placement to fund a late-stage trial and resubmission of its experimental schizophrenia drug, roluperidone, to U.S. FDA (financing includes $80M upfront and up to $80M more tied to the full exercise of Tranche A warrants).
• WBD +9%; said it has initiated a review of strategic alternatives in response to acquisition interest it has received from multiple parties. The company’s board will evaluate options including a sale of the entire company, separate transactions for its Warner Bros. and Discovery Global businesses, as well as continuing to advance the company’s planned separation to be completed by the middle of next year.

• GLPG -7%; after saying it would wind down its cell-therapy operations, putting paid to plans to sell the business off after no viable offers were made.
• PM -8%; Q3 adj EPS $2.24 tops est. $2.11 on better revs $10.85B (vs. est $10.66B), slightly raised FY adj EPS view by $0.03 on bottom-line to $7.36-$7.46, but remains below the consensus $7.53 and still sees FY organic revs to +8%.
• SMR -6%; after the WSJ reported that activist investment firm Starboard Value had acquired a nearly 5% stake in FLR and said it would push Fluor to realize value from a 40% stake it owns in fast-growing nuclear engineering firm NuScale Power (SMR). https://tinyurl.com/bddk9shm