Mid-Morning Look

Friday, October 24, 2025

Another record setting day early on Wall Street to close the week, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each reach levels never seen before, extending weekly gains as a “cooler-than-expected” consumer price index (CPI) inflation report reinforced investor sentiment the Fed will cut rates again by at least 25 bps next week and likely more in 2025. Treasury yields declined and stock futures jumped as the much-awaited U.S. September inflation report showed the 12-month pace accelerating to 3% from 2.9% as of August (but below ests), and core slowing to 3% from 3.1%. As the government shutdown shows no signs of ending, the CPI report could be the only official indicator Wall Street will see for a while. December gold pares losses flat after being down -1.7% at $4,075 an ounce prior to the CPI report. Investors continue to believe that additional policy rate easing will fuel corporate earnings further. All eleven S&P sectors are higher to start the day, with biggest gains in usual suspects Technology (XLK +1.3%) and Communications (XLC +0.9%) and Utilities (XLU) +0.9% which has benefitted from additional AI power needs boosting nuclear names. Crypto assets and miners jumping on the cool CPI report as well as the S&P 500 surges near 6,800. Next week is the biggest week of earnings this quarter with results from AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META and MSFT all expected midweek. In trade, President Trump leaves Washington on Friday night, and is set for a five-day trip spanning Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, On this trip, the President is expected to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea to iron out trade disputes. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday trade talks with Canada were terminated after a Canadian political advertisement used the recorded voice of late president Ronald Reagan saying tariffs cause trade wars and economic disaster.

• U.S. S&P Global October flash composite PMI at 54.8 (vs 53.9 in September); U.S. S&P Global October flash services PMI at 55.2 (vs 54.2 in September) and U.S. S&P Global October flash manufacturing PMI at 52.2 (vs 52.0 in September).
• University of Michigan Sentiment Oct F reported at 53.6 vs. est 54.5 and below prior 55.0 as the current conditions sentiment 58.6 (prev 61.0) and expectations index at 50.3 (prev 51.2); the 1-Year Inflation expectations steady at 4.6% while 5-10-Year inflation rises to 3.9% (prev 3.7%).

• In Semiconductors: INTC shares outperformed while many Wall Street analysts remain cautious still, as the chip maker posted a solid Q3 beat where margins were strong, all metrics ex foundry beat, and the guide was in line to slightly ahead on revs GM were weaker and there are still no large foundry orders; AMAT announces ~4% workforce reduction with $160-180M in charges to streamline operations and boost competitiveness; Shares of AMD, extend and rises further into record high territory, now up +60% in October alone.
• e-Comm & Consumer App sector: Stifel said they prefer CART into the Q3 print and believe the bar is low (it doesn’t expect AMZN impact yet), and it is downgrading LIF to a Hold rating as it believes current valuations have run ahead of the timing of upcoming growth initiatives (more ads, pet trackers, elder care), but it is still believers in the long-term story. EBAY was upgraded to Market Outperform, $115 PT at Citizens as it believes eBay’s product work is creating a significantly better consumer experience in Focus categories that can drive mid-single-digit GMV growth in 2026, which leaves US two points ahead of consensus.
• In Lithium & Rare Earth: SGML was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to $7 from $10 saying Q2 left the firm concerned as cash ran low and DPOs were high. SGML also ended its mining contractor relationship, creating further uncertainty about operations and financing, raising liquidity risks. Redburn said they believe the lithium market is at its cyclical bottom. The massive supply additions of the past three years have resulted in sizeable oversupply, pushing prices down to five-year lows. Redburn initiated ALB with Buy and $135 tgt and SQM with a Neutral rating.

• COIN +8%; upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $404 from $342 as it looks ahead to emerging monetization opportunities and abating risks at what it sees is an attractive valuation versus Cryptocurrency peers; calls out two opportunities it sees Coinbase as exploring as sees Coinbase exploring a Base token and sees Coinbase further exploring its USDC payouts.
• FIX +16%; reported another very strong quarter: top line +35%, EBITDA margin 16.9% (+150 bps q/q and +380 bps y/y), and a 1.5x BTB. Backlog is +56% YTD (mechanical +45%, electrical +98%). Results reflect strength of demand and its superior execution capabilities.
• GOOGL +2%; after AI startup Anthropic agreed to use Google’s (GOOGL) AI chips in a deal worth tens of billions. Google to deliver up to 1M custom-built tensor processing units (TPUs) to Anthropic starting 2026, adding over a gigawatt of processing power.
• INBX +71%; said it announced positive topline results from the registrational ChonDRAgon study investigating ozekibart as a single agent versus placebo in patients with advanced or metastatic, unresectable chondrosarcoma.
• INTC +5%; shares outperformed while many Wall Street analysts remain cautious still, as the chip maker posted a solid Q3 beat where margins were strong, all metrics ex foundry beat, and the guide was in line to slightly ahead on revs GM were weaker and there are still no large foundry orders
• NXT +6%; shares jumped after reported strong Q2 results ahead of consensus expectations and raises FY26 revenue outlook and highlighted 42% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 to $905M and a 29% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $224M.
• TDOC +6%; announced a CFO transition, reaffirmed its 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook and provided preliminary Q3 results; provided preliminary Q3’25 results that included revenue of $626.4M and adj-EBITDA of $69.9M – compares to revenue guidance of $614-$636M and adj-EBITDA guidance of $56-$70M.

• BAH -11%; after Q2 EPS and revs missed consensus ($1.49/$2.9B vs. est. $1.53/$2.97B) and cuts FY26 adjusted EPS view to $5.45-$5.65 from $6.20-$6.55, cuts FY26 revenue view to $11.3B-$11.5B from $12B-$12.5B and lowers its FY26 free cash flow view to $850M-$950M from $900M-$1B.
• COYA -13%; as prices 3.6M shares at $5.50 each.
• DECK -13%; delivered a healthy 2Q EPS beat but provided FY26 guidance below consensus expectations. DECK H2 guide was below Street on Hoka, Ugg and margins, and management tone was cautious despite Q2 coming in in-line on Hoka (11% growth, with DTC +8%) and strong on Ugg (10% growth vs 7% Street).
• ITW -5%; shares slipped after narrowed its annual profit forecast range to between $10.40 and $10.50 per share, compared with its prior projection of $10.35 to $10.55 per share as the industrial parts maker expects supply chain snarls due to U.S. tariffs (though followed better Q3 results).
• NEM -5%; after guiding attributable gold production for 2026 that’s expected to be within the same guidance range provided for 2025, due to the planned mine sequence at its managed operations