Mid-Morning Look

Monday, September 15, 2025

U.S. stocks strong out of the gate, adding to last week’s gains with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on track for a 9^th straight day of gains as upbeat/euphoric sentiment about AI continues to boost the tech heavy Nasdaq. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) extends its rally, topping 6,600, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moves back near 46,000 in another market rally ahead of this week’s FOMC policy meeting Wednesday. Market expectations are set for a minimum of a 25-bps cut, with a small chance forecasted for a greater 50-bps cut following weaker jobs data the last few weeks. Tech leading again today behind strength in TSLA, GOOGL boosting major averages. Financials have also pushed to record highs, with bank banks, JPM, GS, BAC among those hitting all-time bests. Among top stories this morning, TSLA shares surged after a filing showed CEO Elon Musk had amassed nearly $1 billion worth of the electric-vehicle maker’s stock last week. On the negative side, chip stocks edge lower, led by NVDA after China’s antitrust watchdog accused the chip giant of violating competition laws based on a preliminary investigation. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) bounces off its lowest level this year, as signs of a cooling labor market reinforced expectations for more rate cuts. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, marking the first move this year and continuing the easing cycle that began with a hefty 50 bps cut on Sept. 18, 2024. In the lone piece of U.S. eco data today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its statewide manufacturing index of business conditions sank -20.6 points this month to minus -8.7. This was the first reading since June that the index was below the zero-mark, which divides contraction and expansion of activity.

• In Transports: in rails, UNP was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup saying the risk/reward is too compelling to ignore. Citi upgraded given recent events which have outlined the grounds on which UP-NS will face regulators; the recent drop in its share price made it attractive and strong operating execution from UNP, which bodes well for both Q325 earnings and the likelihood of integration success assuming deal approval. In airlines, ALK said it sees Q3 adjusted EPS at low end of $1.00-$1.40, vs. consensus $1.35, driven primarily by elevated fuel costs and operational challenges during the summer which have pressured unit costs. West Coast refining margins have remained high due to ongoing refinery disruptions.
• In Aerospace: Shares of ACHR, JOBY extend gains from Friday after the Trump administration announced a new pilot program to speed the deployment of flying air taxis as companies work to meet regulatory hurdles for advanced air mobility. The Federal Aviation Administration said the program will include at least five projects from public-private partnerships with state and local governments and private sector companies to enable safe operations for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
• In Oil & Gas Equipment: Mizuho with several changes as they upgraded CNX to Neutral, downgraded TALO to Neutral and CVI downgraded to Underperform after they update its commodity price outlook and stock valuations, maintaining a slight preference for gas stocks. A dip in oil prices by early 2026 in the face of higher OPEC+ supply has become such a consensus view that some investors are willing to look through the weakness towards a potential rebound. Meanwhile, profit-taking in gas E&Ps over the summer has sparked fears of a full-blown rotation out of the ‘gas trade’. Reiterate Top Picks (COP, CHRD, CTRA).

• CRWV +5%; and NVDA entered into a new $6.3B order under their 2023 Master Services Agreement, giving Nvidia rights to purchase any unused CoreWeave datacenter capacity through April 2032.
• GLUE +34%; shares rise after saying it has entered into an agreement to collaborate with NVS to develop drugs for immune-mediated diseases; deal includes an upfront payment of $120M to Monte Rosa, with the company eligible for a total of up to $5.7B in milestones and option payments across programs.
• GOOGL +4%; hit $3 trillion market cap for the first time ever; Citigroup raised its tgt to $280 given their view that Google’s product velocity is ramping amid greater clarity around its legal and regulatory challenges in what we believe is a relatively healthy online advertising market.
• STX +7%; new record highs along with gains in WDC as HDD stocks extend gains on rising prices, up eat Wall Street analyst commentary.
• TSLA +6%; shares extend Thursday and Friday gains after Chief Executive Elon Musk disclosed that he bought more than 2.5 million shares on Friday, for about $1 billion in total. Musk reports open market purchase of 2.57M Co’s common shares on Sept 12 at price between $372.370 – $396.540/share

• ATYR -80%; after saying its experimental drug had failed to meet the main goal in a late-stage study testing it in patients with a type of lung disease known as pulmonary sarcoidosis; late-stage trial, which enrolled 268 patients, aimed to show a bigger cut in daily steroid use after 48 weeks vs a placebo.
• HAIN -29%; after reporting Q4 sales fell -13% y/y to $363M, missing the $371M estimate, a posted unexpected quarterly loss of (-$0.02) vs. est. $0.03 and organic sales fell -11%; said implements turnaround strategy focusing on portfolio streamlining and digital capabilities.
• HIMS -1%; after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said a widely watched TV commercial by the telehealth firm earlier this year breached the agency’s regulations.
• NVDA -1%; after China’s market regulator said that a preliminary investigation had found that Nvidia had violated the country’s anti-monopoly law.
• TXN -3%; along with weakness in other analog semi stocks NXPI, ON, ADI after China said it will look into the suspected dumping of imports of some U.S. analog chips used in devices.